Malaysia will likely have a general election in 2022

Significance The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), surprisingly defeated by the PH in the 2018 general election, returned to government in March 2020 and regained the premiership in August this year through party Vice-President Ismail Sabri Yaakob. The next parliamentary polls are due in 2023. Impacts PH Chairman Anwar Ibrahim will come under growing pressure to step down as leader of the opposition. High-profile corruption proceedings against senior UMNO figures, including former Prime Minister Najib Razak, will be a drag on the party. Eastern Malaysian state governments will have greater influence over the oil and gas sectors.

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.


Subject Controversy over the 15th Finance Commission. Significance Finance ministers of three southern states met last month to discuss grievances over the central government’s 15th Finance Commission, which defines revenue redistribution across the federal union. Prime Minister Narendra Modi champions the notion of ‘cooperative federalism’, with central and state governments to share responsibility for economic development. As the 2019 general election approaches, political opponents of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are contemplating the formation of a ‘Federal Front’. Impacts The BJP will step up efforts to undermine Karnataka’s new Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress ruling coalition. While Congress may join a Federal Front, other parties will resist its attempts to assert leadership of the alliance. Modi will prioritise personal campaigning in southern India ahead of the 2019 election, hoping to win over critics.


Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.


Subject Rural constituencies and Malaysia's forthcoming general election. Significance The inquiries into Malaysia’s Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGV), the third-largest palm oil plantation conglomerate globally, continue. On June 19, the office of Prime Minister Najib Razak in a statement encouraged FGV’s investigation of allegations of mismanagement and encouraged the firm to improve its corporate governance, while cautioning that those accused were innocent unless formally proven guilty. Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) settlers are a key constituency for Najib, and alleged mismanagement at FGV could threaten support for his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in the next general election. Impacts Popular and political pressure for effective corporate governance may grow in Malaysia. New electoral boundaries are likely to be voted through by parliament by August. Further court cases against the Election Commission’s constituency boundary re-delineation are likely.


Subject Spain's upcoming general election. Significance Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap election for April 28, following the rejection of his budget by right-wing opposition and Catalan nationalist parties. The election comes as twelve of Catalonia’s pro-independence leaders face high-profile public trials for their involvement in the unconstitutional referendum on Catalan independence in 2017. Impacts Political instability is unlikely to have a significant influence on the economy in the near term. A right-wing government would take a more hostile approach to immigration. It is doubtful that the trials will convert many pro-Spanish Catalans to support independence.


Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad launching the Malaysian United Native Party (Bersatu) on January 15. As a member of the primary opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), Bersatu could challenge the governing coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) for the important Malay-Muslim vote, UMNO's political base. Both developments come as speculation grows that Prime Minister Najib Razak will call an early general election. Impacts Early polls may boost domestic stocks, particularly in construction, but will not stabilise the ringgit. Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem's recent death could bolster the Sarawak autonomy movement. Legal amendments to enact Islamic criminal punishments are unlikely to be voted on pre-election. An Anwar pardon is unlikely; if it happened pre-election the opposition could benefit but still face structural problems. Opposition legal efforts to block the Electoral Commission's constituency re-delineation will likely fail.


Subject Malaysian opposition's election strategy. Significance Malaysian prison authorities last week prevented a meeting between jailed People’s Justice Party (PKR) leader Anwar Ibrahim and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (PPBM). The opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition on January 7 announced Mahathir as its candidate for the general election, with the proviso that he gives way to Anwar within one year of a poll win. The election must take place by August, but Prime Minister Najib Razak of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)-led Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is yet to announce the date. Impacts The re-delineation of electoral boundaries is likely to favour the incumbent government. Religion is likely to be a prominent feature of election campaigning. A Mahathir premiership following the poll would likely leave Malaysia’s fiscal and industrial policy unchanged.


Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. h33-38
Author(s):  
SHAUQAT ADAM SHAMSUL JIHAR

New history is created in Malaysia. After over six decades of Federal rule, the Barisan Nasional (BN) government has been replaced by a coalition of opposition parties, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the most recent general election. PH also managed to form several state governments traditionally held by BN in Peninsular Malaysia. This study aims to seek the perception of the Malays in West Malaysia in accepting the return of Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad into power. It focuses on the so-called political comeback of Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad – the first leader to be appointed Prime Minister twice considering this rarely happens in Malaysia. This study was conducted in West Malaysia involving eighty-eight respondents using the 5-point Likert-scale survey questionnaire. Respondents were given an option to answer the questionnaire in Bahasa Malaysia or English. The general result showed that perception towards political issues in Malaysia, especially with regard to Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad’s comeback drew mixed reactions. On the same note, it showed that people could have lost their hopes and direction of Malaysian politics.


Significance This comes as local press report that powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr might be prepared to lift his election boycott, on certain conditions. Sadrist backing was crucial to the appointment of incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Impacts Kadhimi will try to reinforce his image as a statesman through high-profile international engagement and investment deals. Sadr’s indecision or desire for a longer campaign period could potentially lead to a delay of the polls from October. Developments in Iran-US nuclear deal return talks in Vienna will be important to the security situation in Iraq.


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