Security and surveillance top Thai junta's agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Digital Content ◽  
National Council ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Subsidy Scheme

Subject The junta's grip over law and order. Significance Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's indictment on charges of negligence related to the rice subsidy scheme demonstrates the National Council for Peace and Order's (NCPO) commitment to using the judiciary against political leaders affiliated with deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Such high-profile cases have accompanied a much broader law and order campaign involving the detention of activists and creation of new laws limiting protest and freedom of expression. This campaign reflects worsening authoritarian conditions in Thailand as well as the junta's fear of unrest. Impacts Tightening controls over digital content could deter foreign participation in the telecoms sector. Yingluck's imprisonment is becoming likely: if poorly handled this could trigger major public unrest. The credibility of the judiciary and the anti-graft commission have been deeply tarnished; it will not be easily recouped.

Iraqi premier’s post-poll chances depend on Sadrists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Press Report ◽  
International Engagement

Significance This comes as local press report that powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr might be prepared to lift his election boycott, on certain conditions. Sadrist backing was crucial to the appointment of incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Impacts Kadhimi will try to reinforce his image as a statesman through high-profile international engagement and investment deals. Sadr’s indecision or desire for a longer campaign period could potentially lead to a delay of the polls from October. Developments in Iran-US nuclear deal return talks in Vienna will be important to the security situation in Iraq.

Kazakh election raises questions about leadership

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Face ◽  
Territorial Rights

Significance The governing Nur Otan party won most seats and two tame allies were awarded a few. The importance of this election is that it offers pointers to how much power President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wields. None of his promises of political liberalisation has been realised and it is unclear how serious he is about change. Impacts Askar Mamin's reappointment as prime minister points to general continuity -- or stasis. Tokayev will defend Kazakh nationhood in the face of Russian politicians casting doubt on its territorial rights. Trends as regards civil liberties and freedom of expression are retrograde in both the real and virtual spheres. The OPEC+ bloc's special deal allowing Kazakh oil output to rise by 10,000 barrels per day in February-March offers some economic relief.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Tunisia’s democratic transition will struggle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Government

Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa’s announcement on March 29 of a new, non-ideological party that includes technocrats and former ministers -- the Alternative Party. Six years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, Tunisian politics is still in flux -- facing serious social and economic challenges. Impacts Protests and industrial strikes will continue in the months ahead as the government tries to reduce public spending. Political parties are losing the trust of the population. Further cabinet reshuffles are likely, but political leaders are wary of making bold structural reforms.

Israeli prime minister may be near the end of the road

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Road ◽  
Criminal Charges ◽  
First Time

Significance This is the first time a sitting premier has faced criminal charges. The decision has been looming for several months and comes as the country risks heading towards a third election in the space of a year, absent a last-minute deal to form a coalition. Impacts Netanyahu’s removal would not lead to immediate policy changes, which are more dependent on the eventual composition of the next coalition. If Netanyahu survives, the next election will be defined by polarising claims of a conspiracy against him. Right-wing political leaders’ relationship with the judiciary and police will further sour.

Russian protests challenge Kremlin's election strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
Public Concerns

Significance The March 26 protests in more than 100 cities were led by opposition campaigner and would-be presidential contender Alexey Navalny. Centred on corruption allegations against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the protests expose elite vulnerabilities ahead of next year's presidential election. They also revealed a new vein of anti-government sentiment among young people and in provincial centres. Impacts The April 3 bomb attack in St Petersburg may be used as an argument to curb freedom of assembly further. Putin will hope that high-profile targeted arrests directed from above will be enough to defuse public concerns about corruption. Younger protesters may escape retribution but 'patriotic' initiatives are unlikely to engage them.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Freedom of expression may be stymied in India

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Speech ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Cow Protection ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Attacks on India's media. Significance The gunning down of the journalist Gauri Lankesh on September 5 has revived concerns about free speech in India. More generally, critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are facing a backlash. Impacts In forthcoming election campaigns, opposition parties will claim rising intolerance of dissent under BJP rule. India’s states will come under pressure to curb the vigilantism of cow protection groups. Protests over legislation criminalising same-sex marriages are likely to increase.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

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