Ending Mozambique’s insurgency may prove complex

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Collective Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development

Significance Operations spearheaded by Rwandan military and police have recaptured the strategic towns of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia, and are now targeting the insurgents’ rural bases, while troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are now also on the ground. Impacts The insurgency’s collective leadership will face strains as different elements come under attack and its supply chains are disrupted. The intervention will confirm Tanzania and Rwanda’s regional foreign policy sway, with possible implications for engagement in Congo. The rapid successes of Rwandan forces highlight the gulf in expertise, and possibly will, between them and their Mozambican counterparts.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

SADC reform imperatives face multiple challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Face ◽  
Multiple Challenges

Subject SADC reform potential Significance Between September and February, new presidents came to power in South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe, three key Southern African Development Community (SADC) states. In the latter two, the outgoing presidents has held power for nearly four decades each. The stagnation this imposed on their countries also affected SADC. New leaders could take the organisation forward, but it is not clear whether they have the appetite for this in the face of formidable domestic and regional obstacles. Impacts A likely third-term bid by Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu will present SADC with difficulties over whether to publicly censure a member. Potentially heightened DRC refugee outflows will be a major concern for neighbouring states. Burundi's accession bid will increase scrutiny of SADC's democratic credentials given President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious rule.

Angolan elections may prompt ruling MPLA ruptures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance A press conference after the meeting saw a succession of cabinet ministers praise Angola’s long-serving president. However, despite the show of unity, dos Santos's rumoured ill-health has revealed new fissures within the ruling party. Impacts Lourenco could struggle to impose his authority on dos Santos-affiliated entities such as state-owned oil firm Sonangol. African Union and Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers are likely to trumpet a ‘free and fair’ poll. While the EU may criticise the government's handling of the election, the absence of European monitors will make this largely symbolic. Ruling party divisions could spread to other state entities, including a resurgent Angolan military.

Multiple crises threaten Mozambican gas dividends

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Recent Progress ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Court Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
Politically Motivated Violence ◽  
Party Congress

Significance Meanwhile, a recent court decision surrounding a long-running debt scandal will make it more difficult for Maputo to secure external budgetary support and ensure that state-owned hydrocarbons company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) can participate in LNG investments without being 'carried' by investors. Impacts Politically motivated violence will likely escalate as internal FRELIMO divisions worsen ahead of its 2022 party congress. Recent progress on demobilising former RENAMO rebels will boost hopes of entrenching the peace settlement. A coordinated Southern African Development Community (SADC) counterinsurgency strategy for Cabo Delgado is unlikely for now.

Burundi’s crisis may re-intensify as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Visionary Leadership ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Proxy War ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Burundi's political outlook. Significance On April 25, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) celebrated the fourth anniversary of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 decision to seek another presidential term -- a move that plunged the country into crisis. The celebrations featured fulsome tributes to the president’s visionary leadership and stern warnings against any who would disrupt the country’s progress. This raises fears that the party may be preparing to present the president as its flagbearer again in 2020. Impacts A renewed push to join the Southern African Development Community may aim to offset wider isolationism, but such efforts will likely fail. Domestic tensions could spill over regionally, especially vis-à-vis Rwanda and the two nations’ de facto proxy war in Congo. Armed opposition groups may also step up their attacks, especially if further pressure mounts on their rear bases in Congo.

Congo heads towards deeply contested elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Step Down

Subject Congo election preview. Significance On December 23, Congo is scheduled to hold much-delayed polls after which President Joseph Kabila has vowed to step down. Anticipation is running high; so are political tensions. Impacts The Constitutional Court, which is stacked with Kabila loyalists, could cancel the polls if it looks like the opposition is winning. If elections are postponed, Kabila will remain in power until an elected president can take over. Recent statements by the Southern African Development Community suggest it remains vigilant and could exert pressure for credible polls.

Mozambique’s northern conflict will enter new phase

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
New Phase

Significance The troops arrived amid delays in the deployment of a planned Southern African Development Community (SADC) intervention force and uncertainties over how the different military initiatives will align. Impacts Foreign military intervention and investments in counter-insurgency will reinforce the ruling FRELIMO party. Factional infighting within FRELIMO over who should succeed President Felipe Nyusi will increase. The peace process with RENAMO risks unravelling unless renewed progress can be made quickly.

Zimbabwe’s Foreign Policy Under Mnangagwa

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962098657
Author(s):  
Henning Melber ◽  
Roger Southall
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
African Union ◽  
The West ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Look

Under the presidency of Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s foreign policy is characterized by the desire to ‘re-engage’ with the West with a view to securing the removal of sanctions and encouraging investment. In this, it has received the backing of the African Union and Southern African Development Community states. Simultaneously, the violence of the Mnangagwa regime has reinforced the reluctance of the West to remove sanctions, and Zimbabwe has even begun to test the patience of its neighbours. The government has placed renewed faith in the ‘Look East Policy’, but China is seeking to match its investments with tighter control.

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