Further electoral reform protests are likely in Panama

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Session ◽  
The Government

Significance Amendments put forward by the legislature have been criticised by actors that helped create the draft text of the proposal, as undermining principles agreed by the electoral reform commission (CNRE). With President Laurentino Cortizo’s administration already accused of lacking transparency, the reform could provide a flashpoint for rising dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts More protests are likely to accompany the second and third readings of the bill in the current legislative session. Transparency concerns will increase scrutiny of government activity, especially regarding pandemic procurement. The long lead-time to the next elections will maintain electoral reform as an issue over the medium-term, during implementation.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

IMF loan conditions will worsen Egyptian discontent

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Market Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
The Government

Significance The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice. Impacts Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions. Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions. Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank. If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Nigerian government's self-sufficiency goals will lag

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Parboiled Rice ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Grey Market ◽  
The Government

Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).

Polish isolation in EU could cost PiS government dear

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
National Council ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Appointment System ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Appeal Courts

Significance The Law and Justice (PiS) government has already enacted a bill changing the appointment system for the National Council of the Judiciary and another bill makes the justice minister solely responsible for selecting heads of district and appeal courts. After almost two years in power, the government is defying its critics and remains surprisingly strong and stable. It enjoys high popular support, presides over vigorous economic growth and has a stable working majority. Impacts Relative political stability and favourable economic conditions will encourage investors in the short-to-medium term. Concerns over the rule of law, especially judicial independence, may undermine Poland's long-term position. Growing political isolation will make it hard for Poland's voice to be heard in debates about the EU's future after Brexit.

Monetary tightening carries high cost in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite its commitment to a floating exchange rate, the government has been forced to prioritise exchange rate stabilisation. After the change of Central Bank (BCRA) authorities in mid-June failed to stop the latest currency run, the government further tightened monetary policy. Aiming to alleviate fears of a new medium-term debt default, the government is emphasising its commitment to fiscal adjustment, even including the possibility of new taxes, which runs counter to efforts to reduce tax pressure. Impacts Interest rate rises and closer control of monetary aggregates may prompt a recession. Depreciation will help to reduce the current account deficit in 2018 but will worsen debt indicators. Growing political uncertainty and difficulty in cutting public spending will sustain financial volatility.

Ghana euro-bond setback may force more austerity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Commercial Environment ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana's debt strategy. Significance The government on October 2 suspended its fourth euro-bond sale after low investor interest. The planned 1.5-billion-dollar issue was a key pillar in the medium-term debt management plan under the country's IMF programme. However, rising interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds and the lack of confidence in Ghana's economy has proved it to be a risky strategy. Impacts Preferences for political continuity may see the IMF offer the government more leniency on expenditure targets as 2016 elections approach. The opposition New Patriotic Party needs to do more to capitalise on the economic crisis if it hopes to unseat the government. Appetite for Ghana's recovery among donors could see more concessional borrowing if the commercial environment remains difficult.

Suriname electoral reform will boost re-election bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.

Malawi’s Mutharika may struggle to be re-elected

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Cholera Outbreak ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Past ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Pressured Malawian president Significance Recurring corruption crises over the past year have seen President Peter Mutharika and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s popularity decline. Despite such travails, the DPP has recently attempted to consolidate its hold on parliament by co-opting members of the opposition People’s Party (PP). This comes soon after rebel PP members controversially supported DPP efforts to defeat an electoral reform bill that would have weakened Mutharika’s 2019 re-election hopes. Impacts The opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) will receive intensified overtures from the main parties ahead of the 2019 poll. Despite the recent parliamentary setbacks, a civil society push for electoral reform is unlikely to subside. Failure properly to combat a cholera outbreak in the Central and Northern regions would put further pressure on the government.

Moreno will face significant headwinds in Ecuador

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Market ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Opening Phase

Subject The outlook for the new government. Significance President Lenin Moreno, who began his four-year term on May 24, faces several short- and medium-term challenges. His most immediate concern will be to restore growth and maintain economic stability. Containing the fallout from corruption scandals and improving public finances are other key challenges Moreno will face in the opening phase of his presidency. Impacts Dealing with the fallout from the Odebrecht scandal will be an early test of Moreno’s presidency. Exporters will press the government to secure new trade deals as dollar strength continues to hit their global competitiveness. Trade liberalisation will create new economic tensions as competition within the domestic market intensifies.

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