Moreno will face significant headwinds in Ecuador

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Market ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Opening Phase

Subject The outlook for the new government. Significance President Lenin Moreno, who began his four-year term on May 24, faces several short- and medium-term challenges. His most immediate concern will be to restore growth and maintain economic stability. Containing the fallout from corruption scandals and improving public finances are other key challenges Moreno will face in the opening phase of his presidency. Impacts Dealing with the fallout from the Odebrecht scandal will be an early test of Moreno’s presidency. Exporters will press the government to secure new trade deals as dollar strength continues to hit their global competitiveness. Trade liberalisation will create new economic tensions as competition within the domestic market intensifies.

Brazil's Bolsonaro may see governability erode quickly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Significance Bolsonaro, a retired army captain, had 55.1% of valid votes against 44.9% for Fernando Haddad of the centre-left Worker’s Party (PT). His electoral triumph is a watershed moment in Brazilian politics: it not only puts an end to four consecutive PT victories, but also consolidates the fragmenting of the established political order after long, intertwined political and economic crises. Impacts Bolsonaro will surround himself with military aides. Risks to democracy seem moderate at present, but could escalate quickly in negative scenarios. Uncertainty will rise if the economy fails to gain steam in the short-to-medium term, leading to increased social unrest. Risks could arise if Bolsonaro’s relationship with Congress deteriorates to the point in which his ability to govern is seriously affected. Mercosur's future prospects as a bloc may be in doubt if the government focuses on bilateral trade deals.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

Uruguay trade deals will be key to boost recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Significance The move is part of a trade offensive by President Luis Lacalle Pou, who has instructed the foreign ministry to explore possible FTAs with other countries as well. In a region marked by political conflicts and instability, Uruguay is also seeking to position itself as a model country for investors despite its small domestic market. Impacts Feasibility studies for the possible FTA with China will be done by the end of this year. Planned extra-Mercosur trade talks will clash with Mercosur norms and Argentina’s rejection of extra-bloc trade talks. The outcome of a possible referendum on the government’s key reform package is not yet clear.

scholarly journals Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of a Shrinking Resource Envelope

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aqib Aslam ◽  
Enrico Berkes ◽  
Martin Fukac ◽  
Jeta Menkulasi ◽  
Axel Schimmelpfennig
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

For Afghanistan, the dual prospect of declining donor support and high ongoing security spending over the medium term keeps its government budget tight. This paper uses a general equilibrium model to capture the security–development trade-off facing the government in its effort to rehabilitate growth and fiscal sustainability. In particular, it considers strategic policy options for counteracting and minimizing the negative macroeconomic impact of possible aid and revenue shortfalls. We find that the mobilization of domestic revenues through changes in tax policy is the preferred policy response for the Afghan central government. Such a response helps to place its finances on a sustainable path in the near term and preserve most of the growth potential. Cutting expenditures balances public finances but causes the economy to permanently shrink. Debt financing helps to preserve much of the economy size but can quickly put the sustainability of public finances at risk.

Sonangol reform will extend Angola leader's power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Business Experience ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Offshore Oil

Significance Fund officials praised the government's efforts to rein in spending in response to low oil prices but said further steps were needed to ensure economic stability and improve transparency in public finances. The restructuring of state oil firm Sonangol, announced in April, will be critical for this process. Impacts Sonangol's reforms will shape business cross-regionally, given its multi-sector interests and status as one of Africa's largest companies. If certain of the firm's operations are streamlined, it could affect the livelihoods of some of its approximately 10,000 employees. The 16-billion-dollar Kaombo offshore oil project, led by Total, will prove fundamental for sustaining Angola's future oil output. Angola's status as the region's largest oil producer will persist as long as Nigerian output is reduced by Niger delta militant attacks. Isabel dos Santos's extensive business experience will bolster the investor credibility of the oil sector reforms.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

IMF loan conditions will worsen Egyptian discontent

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Market Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
The Government

Significance The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice. Impacts Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions. Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions. Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank. If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Nigerian government's self-sufficiency goals will lag

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Parboiled Rice ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Grey Market ◽  
The Government

Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).

Polish isolation in EU could cost PiS government dear

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
National Council ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Appointment System ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Appeal Courts

Significance The Law and Justice (PiS) government has already enacted a bill changing the appointment system for the National Council of the Judiciary and another bill makes the justice minister solely responsible for selecting heads of district and appeal courts. After almost two years in power, the government is defying its critics and remains surprisingly strong and stable. It enjoys high popular support, presides over vigorous economic growth and has a stable working majority. Impacts Relative political stability and favourable economic conditions will encourage investors in the short-to-medium term. Concerns over the rule of law, especially judicial independence, may undermine Poland's long-term position. Growing political isolation will make it hard for Poland's voice to be heard in debates about the EU's future after Brexit.

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