Mexico reshuffle aims to facilitate agenda approval

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Period ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Internal Competition ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Significance The change preceded the start of the first legislative period of the newly elected Chamber of Deputies on September 1, in which AMLO’s ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) and its allies no longer hold a two-thirds majority. Impacts AMLO’s popular approval ratings suggest he will remain in office beyond March’s recall referendum. Despite requiring support from at least some of the opposition to pass key bills, AMLO will not abandon his polarising rhetoric. Co-opting opposition figures may become easier towards the end of the current legislature as internal competition for nominations grows.

Colombia's future rests on justice talks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Peace Accord ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject As Colombia's peace talks approach their apparent end date, justice issues are a major sticking point. Significance With barely three months to go until the deadline for a final peace accord, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) need to overcome an impasse on the issue of transitional justice. In August, President Juan Manuel Santos appointed an ad hoc team of six lawyers (three selected by each side) to break the deadlock that had persisted for a year. On September 23, a ten-point communique was revealed in Havana as a basis for further negotiations. Impacts Should the deadlock continue into 2016, Santos's public approval ratings are likely to suffer significantly. The sensitive nature of truth and justice negotiations will see opposition figures attempt to use the issue to discredit the government. The successful conclusion of peace talks could pave the way for a similar process with the ELN.

'Perils of presidentialism' persist in Latin America

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Executive Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
Parliamentary Systems ◽  
Constitutional System ◽  
Head Of Government

Subject The risks of highly presidential and personalist systems. Significance All electoral democracies in Latin America are headed by presidents elected for fixed terms of office. Unlike most parliamentary systems, they are expected to remain in place even if their political support has collapsed and they can no longer secure legislative approval for key policies, nor ratification of their ministerial appointments. Leaders discredited as head of government must in principle remain in post as head of state, potentially putting the entire constitutional system at risk. Impacts Current low approval ratings for many regional presidents highlight the risks associated with personalist government. However, greater ease in removing unpopular leaders could lead to rapid government turnover and more instability. Weak legislatures may fail to exercise curbs on executive power, while coalition-building may fuel corruption to guarantee governability.

Escape adds to Pena Nieto's credibility deficit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Simple Majority ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Alliance Building ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Significance The embarrassing jailbreak tarnishes the mandate Mexico's mid-term election gave the administration of President Enrique Pena Nieto to consolidate its reform programme. Furthermore, while the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- in alliance with the Mexican Green Party (PVEM) and New Alliance Party (PANAL) -- secured a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies, overall trends show a steady decline of the PRI, and a failure to address some serious credibility gaps. Impacts The PRI's increasing dependence on alliance-building may preclude further fragmentation of Mexico's main parties. As corruption and human rights scandals intensify, PRI-PVEM-PANAL electoral prospects may suffer. El Chapo's escape will severely damage faith in Pena Nieto's ability to tackle insecurity.

Return to war is a real possibility in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Possibility ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Peace Dividend ◽  
Other Hand

Significance The 50.2% of voters who rejected the agreement may prove sufficient to force the FARC back to war. Impacts The ceasefire may hold for some time, but disarmament is now extremely unlikely. Santos's popularity could fall further, and he may be forced to resign before his term ends. On the other hand, 'yes' voters may rally around him, boosting his approval ratings. Tourism and foreign investment are likely to suffer, with the prospect of any 'peace dividend' now remote.

Mexico’s Amnesty law will benefit few

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prison System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prison Overcrowding ◽  
The Law ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Amnesty law. Significance An amnesty law that came into effect on April 23 provides for the release of prisoners convicted of non-violent federal crimes. One of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s campaign promises, the law was first approved in 2019 by the Chamber of Deputies. It was ultimately rushed through the Senate in April after AMLO urged his National Regeneration Movement (Morena) to pass it, ostensibly to help combat the spread of COVID-19 within Mexico’s overcrowded prison system. Impacts Fear of COVID-19 within prisons will greatly increase the risk of riots and escape attempts. Focus on the amnesty law may distract from more effective, pre-existing strategies for easing prison overcrowding, such as pardons. The immediate need to address COVID-19’s impacts will hinder efforts to pursue further justice reforms complementary to the amnesty law.

France’s Macron faces major test to bolster his appeal

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings

Significance Yet Macron’s chronically poor approval ratings have been accompanied in the last year by a series of sustained societal protests, political missteps and growing disaffection within his movement. Impacts A strong economic recovery will likely be the most important factor in determining Macron’s re-election chances. Macron’s move towards the left could enable Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to mobilise more right-wing support. LREM -- whose appeal is based around Macron’s personality -- may not survive beyond Macron.

Morena pressure on Mexico’s INE raises democracy risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
General Secretary ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Government-INE tensions. Significance The National Electoral Institute (INE) on February 6 ratified Edmundo Jacobo Molina as its general secretary for another six-year term. The decision, taken with the support of eight of the INE’s eleven-member General Council, has reignited tensions between the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the INE leadership, particularly Council President Lorenzo Cordova. Several government officials have accused Cordova and his fellow councillors of undemocratic behavior for having brought forward the vote, which was originally scheduled for April 10 -- six days after the Chamber of Deputies is due to appoint four new members to the Council. Impacts The fact that AMLO’s name will not be on the ballot in next year’s legislative elections could be a disadvantage for Morena. In its current weakened state, the political opposition is unlikely to put up an effective fight to uphold the INE’s independence. The four new INE Council members appointed in April will help organise elections in 2024 and 2027, as well as the 2021 midterms.

ICJ ruling will have mixed impact in Bolivia, Chile

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Compromise Solution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings

Significance Chile argues that the verdict represents no tangible loss. However, it is a rebuff to Chilean diplomacy, particularly following the ICJ's decision last year establishing a new maritime frontier between Peru and Chile that favoured the former. Impacts The case may prove awkward to adjudicate given the difficulty of reaching any compromise solution. The ruling will further undermine the Chilean government's shaky approval ratings. In Bolivia, it may temporarily offset some of the negative signals facing President Evo Morales.

Colombia's Duque faces a tough year in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings

Subject Duque troubles. Significance Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo on December 30 announced the arrests of three Venezuelan nationals suspected of plotting to assassinate President Ivan Duque. The announcement comes as Duque enters 2019, his first full year in office, against a backdrop of rising tensions with the Venezuelan government, plummeting domestic approval ratings and protests by citizens angry with his government’s stance on numerous issues including education, taxation, corruption and security. Impacts The recent dip in global oil prices could, if it continues, threaten oil investment and revenue. The encroachment of Colombian armed groups into Venezuelan territory will increase the risk of diplomatic incidents. October 2019 local elections could see Duque's party lose many of the urban centres it currently controls to the opposition.

Morena triumph changes the face of Mexican politics

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Mexican Politics ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Significance His National Regeneration Movement (Morena) appears to have won the largest share of seats in the federal Congress, and along with its allies has come to dominate both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Morena also looks to have claimed victory in five out of nine gubernatorial elections, including that of Mexico City. Impacts The confirmation (or change) of AMLO's proposed cabinet will indicate whether or not he will indeed opt for a moderate line. Morena may yet benefit further from an exodus of disillusioned members of other parties. US relations will be one of the most challenging areas for the new administration. Notwithstanding his nationalist streak, Lopez Obrador is unlikely to depart from the incumbent government's position on NAFTA.

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