Russian corporate recovery varies by company profile

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Controls ◽  
Global Demand

Significance Recovery in the corporate sector is unevenly divided between large and smaller companies. More robust global demand and rising commodity prices boosted the profitability of large exporters, whereas the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was delayed by pandemic restrictions and falling real disposable incomes. Impacts High metals prices will constrain investment in infrastructure. Rising interest rates will limit capital market borrowing by medium-sized companies. Government price controls threaten to undermine private investment in agriculture, metallurgy and chemical production. A deterioration in banks' corporate portfolio will be adequately offset by high earnings and previous provisioning.

Business confidence mars Chile investment outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of falling investment. Significance Since 2013, investment has been declining in many Latin American countries in a trend related to lower commodity prices. However, in Chile, the contraction has been particularly marked and is also attributed to a loss of business confidence caused by domestic political factors. Impacts An expected increase in international interest rates will play against higher private investment next year. Increased competitiveness as a result of peso depreciation may boost investment in some non-commodity export industries. Local businesses, accustomed to Chile's economic and political stability, will find it difficult to adjust to increased uncertainty.

Commodities rout will fuel EM concerns and volatility

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Country Specific

Significance This drop has taken oil into its second bear market in the space of just over a year amid a broader rout in the prices of commodities, notably copper and gold. The commodity sell-off is fuelled by mounting concerns over the economy and financial markets of China, the world's top crude importer and its largest energy user. The sell-off is exacerbated by fears over the fallout from a US interest rates rise, which could come as early as September. Country-specific risks are weighing on emerging market (EM) assets, notably the currencies of large commodity exporters such as Brazil and Russia. Impacts The sharp fall in commodity prices will exert further downward pressure on inflation in both emerging and advanced economies. Re-emerging disinflationary trends will bode ill for the ECB efforts to boost inflation in the euro-area. The commodity sell-off will exacerbate economic and political crises in Brazil and Russia. The EM currencies fall is forcing many central banks to signal an end to monetary easing or to tighten policy.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

New Zealand COVID-19 fightback prospects are positive

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The Government

Significance The government has locked the country down for four weeks and legislated to borrow up 52 million dollars (30.7 million US dollars), equivalent to 17% of GDP. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is using several monetary policy tools to meet its inflation and employment targets, keep interest rates low and support financial market liquidity. Impacts Tourism, the largest export-earner, and high-earners logging and education, will suffer. Dairy, meat and horticultural exports will be shielded by continuing global demand, aided by a weak New Zealand dollar. The country heads into the COVID-19 crisis with low debt-to-GDP, but debt taken out now will take a future toll. Opposition and minor political parties will get reduced media coverage, while the September general election may be delayed.

Fed move boosts tight Latin American monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Subject The impact of US monetary policy tightening. Significance Following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) historic decision to raise rates for the first time since 2006, the start of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is accentuating the hawkish stance of Latin America's main central banks. This comes amid a dramatic sell-off in commodity markets, persistent concerns about China's economy and a severe deterioration in economic conditions across the region. Impacts EM asset prices have remained relatively resilient to the rise in US interest rates, in stark contrast to the 'taper tantrum' in 2013. Hitherto-resilient regional local currency government bond markets will face foreign capital outflows due to falling commodity prices. The Brazilian real is 2015's worst-performing major EM currency, but due largely to political and economic difficulties at home.

Sustainable growth initiatives will dampen China’s GDP

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Data Revisions ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Job Prospects

Significance The economy grew by 6.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, unchanged from the third quarter and taking growth for the whole of 2017 to 6.9%. Growth was led by stronger exports, benefiting from strong global demand in 2017. Domestic activity also contributed, especially services and private investment. Impacts Three protectionist worries could hit Chinese exports: technology transfer, steel imports and the North American Free Trade Agreement. Concerns about local government misreporting and large underreported debt piles will persist and could dampen investment in these areas. Next year the NBS plans to revise its GDP reporting to reconcile national and regional data; revisions to back data could be substantial. NBS plans to report more comprehensive labour market data could raise awareness of poor job prospects, possibly causing popular discontent.

Swiss economic growth is set to accelerate this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Switzerland. Significance Switzerland’s GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter of 2017: it increased by 0.3% on a quarterly and 1.1% on a yearly basis, held back by weak private consumption growth. However, exports rebounded after the long blight of the 2015 franc appreciation shock. Impacts Private consumption should improve after stagnating in 2015-16, benefiting from the labour market recovery. Low interest rates are likely to boost private investment. Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, engineering, electrics and the watch-making industry are likely to benefit from the expected revival in exports. Inflation is likely to average around 0.4% in 2017 and 2018.

Russian policy toolkit mixes rate rises and price caps

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Controls ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Personal Savings ◽  
The Government

Significance This is high enough to worry the Central Bank of Russia (CBR): inflation has hovered around 4%, the bank's target level, for the last four years. The CBR has responded with monetary tightening, and the government with price controls on food and some exported commodities. Impacts Rising domestic interest rates and higher global oil prices will support the ruble. Elevated inflationary expectations will discourage long-term investment and personal savings. Higher interest rates will improve banks' net interest income and support banking profitability in 2021.

Prospects for global agriculture in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Agriculture

Subject Prospects for global agriculture in the second quarter. Significance In the last quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, abundant harvests in the northern hemisphere and moderate increases in global demand tended to suppress agricultural commodity prices. In the three months to June, similar conditions are likely to persist, albeit with two main downside risks: poor weather conditions, especially in the southern hemisphere, and the continued negative impact of Russia's food embargo on major exporters.

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