US stance may shift on climate change post-Trump

Headline INTERNATIONAL: US climate policy may change post-Trump

Significance Worth 54 billion euros (60 billion dollars) until 2023, the reforms are designed to help Germany reach its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% of 1990 levels by 2030. This comes after the government said it would fail to reach its 2020 goal of a 40% reduction. Impacts Germany’s ambition to become a front-runner in the global fight against climate change will likely continue to suffer. Protests similar to France's 'yellow vest' movement are unlikely as the proposals avoid pain for lower- and middle-income voters. The proposed policies could put pressure on industrial firms to lower their heating and fuel costs. Given the economic impact that ambitious climate policy could have on industry and consumers, reforms to the deal will likely be modest.


Significance Activists have pressed for involvement in policymaking via citizen assembilies and have stepped up their campaign against European governments and financial institutions which they regard as favouring carbon-intensive industries. Impacts Activists will be concerned by rising emissions that accompany higher consumption once lockdown restrictions are lifted. The social and economic impact of COVID-19 may reduce voter interest and engagement in climate change. A strong electoral performance by Germany’s Green Party would boost support for ambitious fiscal and climate policy at the EU-level.


Significance The G7 wants leading emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to achieve net-zero emissions by around mid-century, preferably 2050. India’s targeted Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to action against climate change includes reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35%, relative to 2005 levels, by 2030. Impacts India will steadily reduce its palm oil imports. Coal will continue to dominate India’s energy mix in the medium term. Delhi will try to step up cooperation over clean energy with key partners such as Washington.


Author(s):  
Cassandra Pillay ◽  
Jeroen van den Bergh

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the relationship between climate change, its negative impacts on human health and its role in catalysing public engagement for climate policies. It aims to increase public support for climate-mitigation strategies by showing the medical case for negative climate-induced health impacts, the economic burden it entails and the public response to climate change that may be expected when health frames are used. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews medical, economic and behavioural studies focusing on climate-induced health impacts, its economic costs and its potential for catalysing public engagement for climate policy. Findings The paper provides empirical insights about the various direct and indirect effects of climate change on human health which includes both physical impacts (infectious and non-infectious diseases) and non-physical impacts (mental disorders and reduced labour productivity). Extreme events such as storms, floods and droughts further seriously affect the health of many people, as they restrict food production and water supply. Economic damage costs of climate-induced health impacts are underestimated. Together, natural science, medical and economic studies warrant giving more attention to health in public debates on climate change. The more so as evidence of behavioural studies suggests that the use of health frames reinforces public concern for climate issues. Originality/value This paper argues that climate-induced health impacts and their economic costs should be given more serious attention in discussions about climate-mitigation strategies. They can augment public support for climate policy.


Subject China's 'climate finance' efforts. Significance During the December 2015 COP 21 climate change summit in Paris, Beijing acted as an enabler for the negotiations, submitting its own commitments well ahead of time and constructively supporting the overall process. As part of this China also pledged more climate finance in the run-up to the conference. At present most of China's climate finance efforts are pledges rather than reality, yet even these set an example and signal the willingness of the world's largest polluter to take action in principle. Impacts China's shift will put pressure on other emerging economies to soften their stance on climate policy, particularly India. AIIB environmental sustainability requirements will affect how development funding is given by other development banks. Infrastructure and green businesses in Asia-Pacific will increasingly be able to access Chinese climate funding. Developing countries will see an even greater Chinese presence, with Chinese companies heavily involved in implementing climate projects.


Subject Prospects for global climate policy in 2016. Significance Collective efforts to respond to climate change, as in previous years, will prove a source of domestic and international political controversy, particularly as vulnerable states cope with climate-induced loss and damage in a post-COP21 global climate regime. Pledges made by countries themselves at the COP21 summit -- both for emission reductions and for financial contributions to support developing countries -- will draw international scrutiny to avoid backsliding or double-counting.


Significance Delegates succeeded in establishing most of the technical guidance necessary to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement -- a notable achievement, but not one that will, in itself, bring emission levels down towards meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals. New data suggest emissions rose in 2018, after three years of no growth. Impacts The challenge of achieving a ‘just transition’ for workers in fossil-intensive sectors will complicate climate policy. US President Donald Trump’s continued criticism of the Paris Agreement may undermine international commitment to it. Bilateral carbon trading schemes are still able to proceed despite deadlock on relevant Paris Agreement rules.


Significance Although acceptance of the reality of climate change is growing, views on how government should respond divide sharply by party affiliation. US polling data suggest that partisanship is a stronger factor in shaping public attitudes toward the risks and policies associated with climate change than an individual’s age or location. Impacts The recently enacted Biden infrastructure bill includes significant funds to improve resilience and advance clean energy. One-quarter of the USD2tn spending bill now before the Senate is earmarked for issues associated with climate change. Work on climate issues in response to regional concerns will result in a patchwork of state and local policies. Changes in insurance availability for homes and businesses in vulnerable areas will be an increasing factor in policy decisions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1013-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Nikas ◽  
Haris Doukas ◽  
Jenny Lieu ◽  
Rocío Alvarez Tinoco ◽  
Vasileios Charisopoulos ◽  
...  

Purpose The aim of this paper is to frame the stakeholder-driven system mapping approach in the context of climate change, building on stakeholder knowledge of system boundaries, key elements and interactions within a system and to introduce a decision support tool for managing and visualising this knowledge into insightful system maps with policy implications. Design/methodology/approach This methodological framework is based on the concepts of market maps. The process of eliciting and visualising expert knowledge is facilitated by means of a reference implementation in MATLAB, which allows for designing technological innovation systems models in either a structured or a visual format. Findings System mapping can contribute to evaluating systems for climate change by capturing knowledge of expert groups with regard to the dynamic interrelations between climate policy strategies and other system components, which may promote or hinder the desired transition to low carbon societies. Research limitations/implications This study explores how system mapping addresses gaps in analytical tools and complements the systems of innovation framework. Knowledge elicitation, however, must be facilitated and build upon a structured framework such as technological innovation systems. Practical implications This approach can provide policymakers with significant insight into the strengths and weaknesses of current policy frameworks based on tacit knowledge embedded in stakeholders. Social implications The developed methodological framework aims to include societal groups in the climate policy-making process by acknowledging stakeholders’ role in developing transition pathways. The system map codifies stakeholder input in a structured and transparent manner. Originality/value This is the first study that clearly defines the system mapping approach in the frame of climate policy and introduces the first dedicated software option for researchers and decision makers to use for implementing this methodology.


Author(s):  
Eugen Pissarskoi

How can we reasonably justify a climate policy goal if we accept that only possible consequences from climate change are known? Precautionary principles seem to offer promising guidelines for reasoning in such epistemic situations. This chapter presents two versions of the precautionary principle (PP) and defends one of them as morally justifiable. However, it argues that current versions of the PP do not allow discrimination between relevant climate change policies. Therefore, the chapter develops a further version of the PP, the Controllability Precautionary Principle (CPP), and defends its moral plausibility. The CPP incorporates the following idea: in a situation when the possible outcomes of the available actions cannot be ranked with regard to their value, the choice between available options for action should rest on the comparison of how well decision makers can control the processes of the implementation of the available strategies.


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