COP 24 leaves much to be done regarding climate change

Significance Delegates succeeded in establishing most of the technical guidance necessary to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement -- a notable achievement, but not one that will, in itself, bring emission levels down towards meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals. New data suggest emissions rose in 2018, after three years of no growth. Impacts The challenge of achieving a ‘just transition’ for workers in fossil-intensive sectors will complicate climate policy. US President Donald Trump’s continued criticism of the Paris Agreement may undermine international commitment to it. Bilateral carbon trading schemes are still able to proceed despite deadlock on relevant Paris Agreement rules.

Subject Prospects for renewable energy to end-2017. Significance On June 1, US President Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Later that week, the US Energy Information Administration revealed in a report that renewables set a record of generating 10% of the country’s electric power in the month of March, highlighting that renewable energy has strong momentum that should carry it through shorter term policy fluctuations.


Subject The Paris Agreement and US withdrawal. Significance President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change on June 1, prompting criticism from around the world. While current pledges are unlikely to change and the agreement will not see flight or withdrawal by other countries, US withdrawal imperils the ability of the agreement’s structure to accelerate climate action to a scale necessary to meet its objective of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees centigrade by 2100. Impacts The US private sector and sub-national polities will increase their climate action, though the loss of federal support will still be felt. A future US administration could re-enter the agreement, but substantial momentum will be lost diplomatically in the intervening years. Calls for greater adaptation -- rather than mitigation -- funds from climate-vulnerable states will grow more strident.


Subject The Paris climate agreement. Significance The Paris agreement is the first major international pact to combat climate change since the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. If implemented, the pact envisions robust national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the adverse effects of global warming, with significant political, economic, social and sectoral implications. Impacts Paris accord transparency measures will facilitate carbon divestment campaigns in the West. Aviation and shipping emissions are likely to be addressed in a future Paris accord review conference. Migration from climate change-vulnerable states will reopen the legal issue of internationally recognised 'climate refugee' status.


Subject The May 16-26, 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference. Significance The 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference concluded on May 26, with a number of issues related to the implementation of the Paris Agreement left unresolved. These included key elements, such as how progress is to be monitored and reviewed, and the scale and speed of provision of financial and technological support for developing countries. Only one further session is scheduled for this year, at the November COP22 meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco. Current UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres concludes her six-year term in July, to be replaced by former Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa. Impacts The Paris Agreement is likely to enter into force by end-2017, perhaps earlier if diplomatic momentum is sustained. Concerns about delayed entry into force may speed the completion of the operational 'rule-book' by COP22. The Green Climate Fund's call for more proposals highlights the limited pipeline of application-ready projects in developing countries.


Subject Prospects for renewable energy in 2017. Significance The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies as well as the largest carbon emitters, announced their ratification of the Paris Agreement in September. Earlier this year, prices for renewable energy in select regions set historic lows below fossil-fired plants. Renewable energy seems to have passed the tipping point towards gradual adoption as the primary source of electric power while also hopefully preventing catastrophic climate change.


Significance The Paris Agreement will enter into force on November 4, ahead of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) annual Conference of Parties (COP22) meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, which begins the following week. The two thresholds for entry into force -- more than 55 countries ratifying, accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions -- were met in early October. Impacts Activist states will continue to advance Paris-complementary measures in non-UNFCCC settings. The Paris Agreement's entry into force means that a signatory government can only withdraw in four years' time. However, a national leader willing to bear the diplomatic fallout could nevertheless undermine the pact through inaction and backsliding. The natural gas sector is a likely beneficiary of incremental international emissions reduction efforts.


Subject China's climate change policy after US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Significance Beijing is seen as a potential global leader on climate change following US President Donald Trump’s June 2 announcement that Washington will pull out from Paris Agreement. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, has already won applause simply by promising to honour existing commitment to the international climate accord. Impacts China prefers to aid developing countries through its South-South fund, so it is unlikely to contribute to the Green Climate Fund. Concerns over competitiveness, especially in export industries, will weaken the national carbon trading scheme due to launch this year. China will negotiate energy sector deals with the United States on economic criteria rather than environmental or climate impacts.


Subject Shipping emissions reduction Significance Talks on the Paris Agreement on climate change concluded in Bonn this month, having achieved little progress toward procedures for emissions reduction and financial pledges. This raises doubts about whether such procedures -- known as the Agreement’s ‘rulebook’ -- will be finalised as planned at December’s COP24 climate change conference in Katowice. Progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals still leaves much to be desired. A recent agreement by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) on a strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping -- a sector not included in the Paris Agreement -- provides a rare note of optimism. Impacts Carbon credits negotiations have seen little progress and are unlikely to be resolved, prolonging global market uncertainty. ‘Alternative’, lower-carbon fuels are likely to be more promising than renewable energy options for the shipping industry. Opposition to slower shipping speeds by trade-distant countries will be formidable.


Significance Russia is the world's leading wheat exporter and is trying to build its livestock sector. Intensive, polluting production methods are at odds with other environmental imperatives. Reconciling them will be difficult and it is no surprise that the government's new action plan mostly involves evaluating risks and priorities, not acting on them. Impacts The 2020 budget will have little cash to spare for innovative ecological projects. Russia's Paris Agreement greenhouse gas commitments are low because the baseline predates its 1990s economic collapse. No one in government rejects the fact of climate change; any resistance will be to policy solutions.


Significance Worth 54 billion euros (60 billion dollars) until 2023, the reforms are designed to help Germany reach its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% of 1990 levels by 2030. This comes after the government said it would fail to reach its 2020 goal of a 40% reduction. Impacts Germany’s ambition to become a front-runner in the global fight against climate change will likely continue to suffer. Protests similar to France's 'yellow vest' movement are unlikely as the proposals avoid pain for lower- and middle-income voters. The proposed policies could put pressure on industrial firms to lower their heating and fuel costs. Given the economic impact that ambitious climate policy could have on industry and consumers, reforms to the deal will likely be modest.


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