Supply disruptions will impede manufacturing growth

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Supply disruptions will impede industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 948-970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mandar Dabhilkar ◽  
Seyoum Eshetu Birkie ◽  
Matti Kaulio

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a typology of supply-side resilience capabilities and empirically validates these capabilities and their constituent bundles of practices. Design/methodology/approach – The study is primarily qualitative, employing the critical incident technique to collect data across 22 firms and seeking to validate how and why practice bundles form and relate to operations performance. It contains a frequency of occurrence analysis for the purpose of triangulation, a minor statistical part to provide some additional evidence of bundle formation and correlation between adoption of bundles of practices and recovered operations performance after upstream supply chain disruptions. Findings – Four supply-side resilience capabilities are conceptualized along two dichotomous dimensions – “proactive/reactive” and “internal/external” – in a 2×2 matrix as proactive-internal, proactive-external, reactive-internal and reactive-external resilience capabilities. Empirical support for the conceptualized typology is found. Bundles of specific practices that can be associated with each capability are identified. Moreover, the study finds a relationship between these practice bundles and recovered operations performance. Research limitations/implications – The statistical part is used just to provide some additional evidence through factor and regression analyses that these capabilities exist and do benefit adopting firms. Practical implications – Specifies practices that lead to recovered operations performance in the event of supply disruptions. Originality/value – Advances current theory by operationalizing resilience as a set of dynamic capabilities in terms of practice bundles that aid in recovering operations performance upon supply disruptions.


Significance Modest progress is underway in rebalancing towards more consumption and less reliance on exports and investment. GDP growth is on target, helped by buoyant housing and automobile sales. Many of these have been financed by debt though, adding to concerns that prioritising GDP growth has left the economy too reliant on credit. The debt burden is a concern, particularly corporate debt. Impacts The renminbi is at a six-year low and higher US rates could weaken it further, spooking markets. Foreign reserves are at a five-year low; while import cover is still strong, eroding macro fundamentals are a concern. Strong high-tech and equipment manufacturing growth must be built upon to develop a larger and more sophisticated private sector. The focus on growth targets set in 2010 risks debt resolution costs rising as they are deferred.


Subject Just-in-case manufacturing. Significance Firms are rethinking their supply chain strategies, prompted by plummeting demand and revenue, supply disruptions and the loss of production capacity in the wake of measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. Shortages of critical medical products, which export restrictions are exacerbating, also highlight the importance of bolstering domestic manufacturing capacity. Just-in-time requirements are being supplemented, but not replaced, by 'just-in-case' considerations. Impacts The protectionism of some governments amidst COVID-19 supply strains will heighten fears that supply shortages will harm economic recovery. Firms and governments will diversify their supply chains by building greater redundancy into sourcing and by using local supplies more. Tech advances will speed up the transformation of manufacturing, benefiting firms able to respond rapidly to changes in customer demand.


Subject COVID-19-related disruptions to the mining supply chain. Significance The severity and length of COVID-19-related lockdowns has varied by country, but disruptions have quickly affected production. While West Africa, Russia and initially Mexico struggled to define a clear policy for mining, strict initial prohibition hit production in New Zealand, Peru, Argentina, South Africa, Ecuador and India in late March and into April. Spain, Australia, Chile, Quebec and Finland stuck to the middle ground, phasing policies in and out and permitting selected activity. Impacts Key plants, including iron ore mines in Australia and copper mines in Chile and the United States, are seeing little disruption so far. Mongolia, the first nation to close its borders with China, has also been the first to resume coal exports to its southern neighbour. Western Australia banned some fly-in, fly-out commuting arrangements to mines; similar such bans could persist elsewhere for months.


Subject Outlook for water security in South Africa. Significance Water supply disruptions and health problems caused by poor water quality are frequent triggers for violent 'service delivery' protests. Yet the problem is due at least as much to governance and infrastructure woes as it is to aridity. Official figures indicate one in ten municipal water systems are dysfunctional and 25% of the functional ones experience disruptions lasting over two days at a time. Impacts Droughts affecting the 2015 maize harvest will dampen agricultural exports and hurt regional food security. Transboundary river commissions, such as those for the Limpopo and Orange rivers, will curtail diplomatic disputes over water. Lesotho's importance for water supplies means Pretoria will remain willing to intervene if necessary to guarantee stability.


Subject The outlook for copper prices. Significance Having seen prices halve over five years, the copper market has stabilised since the fourth quarter of 2016. The long bear market forced the industry to cut exploration and capital reserves, and demand rebounded in 2016, growing by 1.8%. This year the market has started to tighten as there have been supply disruptions. Impacts Chile’s output could rise in coming years as the government will inject 975 million dollars to bolster state-owned Codelco’s growth. In six years, Rio Tinto and Chinalco found no copper in China and have stopped looking, so China will remain the world’s largest importer. Chile’s miners, reliant on costly coal and gas, are reviewing bids from wind and solar power producers, which may dramatically cut costs. To increase its stake in two Congolese mines, Glencore spent more than 500 million dollars to buy out Israeli financier Dan Gertler.


Significance Production increased at near-record rates in the West. Growth was also strong in East Asia, based on export demand, but weaker in key emerging markets in South Asia, South-east Asia and Latin America that continue to suffer from pandemic-related disruption. Impacts Production backlogs and inventories will continue to pile up, putting further pressure on both input and output prices. Smaller suppliers with limited pricing leverage will bear the brunt of escalating costs. Cash-flow pressures will compound market uncertainties and heightened supply chain risks in slowing rates of investment in new capacity. Opportunities will emerge from the supply-side disruptions and firms will consider longer-term changes to their supply chains. Firms able to leverage their workforce skills, processes and technologies to speed up product innovation are best positioned for success.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bishwanath Goldar

Purpose Since the announcement of the new series of national accounts for India (with base 2011-12) in January 2015, there has been endless controversy over the new gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers, particularly in respect of growth of Indian manufacturing. The purpose of this paper is to highlight certain policy issues concerning India’s system of national accounts, in the context of the methodological changes made in the new national accounts series, and to check the validity of the view held by some critics that the new series has significantly overstated the growth rate in real gross value added in manufacturing in recent years. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a brief, selective review of the literature that has emerged on the new series of national accounts. A close look is taken at the available data on real gross value added growth in Indian manufacturing in conjunction with data on growth in India’s exports and in outstanding non-food commercial bank credit. Analysis of these data is undertaken with the help of a table and some graphs. Findings The paper finds that there is not enough basis to believe and argue that the GDP estimates in the new series of national accounts significantly overstate the true manufacturing sector growth in India. Originality/value Rates of manufacturing output growth in recent years indicated by the new series of national accounts for India are subjected to careful scrutiny by contrasting yearly growth rates in manufacturing output with those in India’s non-oil exports and in outstanding non-food commercial bank credit.


Subject Possible supply disruptions for sensitive commodities. Significance The buildout of excessive capacity in most commodity markets has resulted in a multi-year price collapse across the board. For some metals crucial to the electronics industry, the production increases have come from low-cost mines in conflict-ridden areas. Excessive reliance on minerals from geographies prone to armed conflicts risks potential supply disruptions. Impacts The electronics industry will still rely on raw materials sourced from conflict regions, while technically complying with regulations. Supplies from mature mining jurisdictions will dwindle as long as prices remain low. Government intervention may be needed in order to regulate the oligopolistic segments of some commodity markets.


Significance US sanctions are nevertheless causing major difficulties for importers. Even for trade that is technically exempt from sanctions, notably food and medicines, a lack of financial access is causing supply disruptions and increasing prices. Impacts Supply disruptions and price increases for medical goods and food will affect inflation levels. The harmful effects of sanctions could undermine US policy by contradicting claims that the campaign is not aimed at the Iranian people. China and other alternative trading partners cannot easily replace European exporters of key goods. Declining imports of Chinese industrial goods may lead to rising unemployment, and further discontent.


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