Bilateralism will define India’s regional trade policy

After rejecting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Delhi is set to recalibrate its trade relations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyn-Young Park ◽  
Peter A. Petri ◽  
Michael G. Plummer

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents strong potential to mold regional trade and investment patterns well into the future and to influence the direction of global economic cooperation at a challenging time. This paper evaluates the RCEP’s impact on global and regional incomes, trade, economic structure, factor returns, and employment using a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that the RCEP agreement could generate sizable global income gains. Together with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership, the RCEP will also strengthen the region’s manufacturing supply chains, raising productivity and increasing wages and employment.


Significance In contrast to this tariff escalation, eagerness to preserve the multilateral, rules-based economic order is drawing Asian countries into inter-regional trade agreements. Negotiations are ongoing to bring into effect a 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and an eleven-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Impacts Absent US involvement in the trade agreements, China will champion its own version of global free trade. Modifications within the CPTPP may reduce any incentive for the United States to rejoin. A US withdrawal from the WTO would weaken dispute systems used by smaller countries.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kailan Tian ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Yuze Li ◽  
Xi Ming ◽  
Shangrong Jiang ◽  
...  

Abstract Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been widely adopted to facilitate international trade and cross-border investment and ultimately promote economic development. However, ex ante measurements of the environmental effects of RTAs to date have not been well conducted. Here, we estimate the CO2 emission burdens of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) after evaluating its economic effects. We find that trade among RCEP member countries will increase significantly and economic output will expand with the reduction of regional tariffs. However, the results show that complete tariff elimination among RCEP members would increase the yearly global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by about 3.12%, which doubles the annual average growth rate of global CO2 emissions in the last decade. The emissions in some developing members will surge. We therefore stress the necessity of balancing carbon mitigation and the pursuit of economic profitability. The technological advancement of emission mitigation and more effective climate policies for international trade are urgently required to avoid undermining international efforts to reduce global emissions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lurong Chen ◽  
Philippe De Lombaerde ◽  
Ludo Cuyvers

This paper attempts to shed new light on further deepening the economic integration process in Southeast Asia using a quantitative assessment of the potential for further developing intra-regional trade. It is evident that ASEAN's export space is expanding faster than the world average and that there is still room for ASEAN countries to further develop the role of their intra-regional trade. To improve its export potential, ASEAN should liberalize trade not only intra-regionally but also globally. It could be in ASEAN's interest to accelerate the pace of regional integration under frameworks that involve the participation of non-ASEAN countries, especially an ASEAN Framework for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.


2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 92-98
Author(s):  
Lisandra Flach ◽  
Hannah-Maria Hildenbrand ◽  
Feodora Teti

AbstractThe Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement creates the world’s largest free trade zone. The agreement has the potential to increase trade relations among its members and further promote the development of regional value chains in “Factory Asia”. This article presents the topics included in the recently concluded agreement, details the existing economic linkages between its members and discusses the expected consequences for its member states and third countries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Lu

<p>RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), a modern, comprehensive, high-level and mutually beneficial agreement was signed<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">, which</span> marks the official establishment of the free trade zone with the largest participating population, the most diverse membership structure and the greatest development potential in the world. Benefit<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">ed</span> from RCEP<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">, the</span> regional trade liberalization <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">can be achieved and the</span> rising global inflation expectations <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">can be reached</span>. The mining industry, especially the metal industry, may usher in a new period of development opportunities. However, potential risks still need to be paid attention to. For example, the implementation of RCEP is <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">far less than expectations; </span>the situation of Sino-US trade has further deteriorated<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">;</span> and the implementation of economic stimulus policies in Europe and the United States falls <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">out</span> of expectations.</p>


Author(s):  
Sylwia Pangsy-Kania ◽  
Katarzyna Kania

Australian-Chinese goods trade in the context of the RCEP and the trade war – diagnosis and development prospects The aim of this article is to analyze changes in merchandise bilateral trade relationships between Australia and China in the years of 2000–2020. Particular attention was paid to the importance of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the trade war in response to Austalia’s call for an international inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus when the pandemic had become an international issue. The main purpose of this article is to diagnose and evaluate Australian-Chinese relations. The thesis was formulated as follows: the political conflict between China and Australia translates into mutual trade relations, the consequences of which are felt by both sides, but in the coming years China will still be Australia’s most important trading partner. At the same time, Australia will be looking for new markets, and China will be looking for new suppliers.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Sebastian Sterzer ◽  
Andi Killang Pakkanna

Chile and Argentina have put their radars on trade with Southeast Asian countries, in which Indonesia appears as one of the main countries. In recent years, Chile has had a more aggressive trade policy towards Indonesia. The most recent proof has been the signing of the Indonesia - Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA), which entered into force in 2019. The objective of this article is to present a comparative analysis of trade flows between Argentina - Indonesia and Chile - Indonesia, looking for similarities and differences between both types of bilateral ties, so that they can serve as models to improve existing relations, learning from what it has happened in each one of them.


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