The dynamic linkage between exchange rate, stock price and interest rate in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malepati Jayashankar ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate for India. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014, this study has scrutinized the linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) which is very much appropriate when the variables are discrete in nature. Findings Our major findings indicate that the empirical relationship between these variables is not significant at lower scales. As we go on higher scales, there is a clear linkage between them, and three markets are associated with each other. Moreover, the direction and type of the relationship depends on the frequency bands, and finally with the help of Granger causality tests, we established a lead/lag relationship between stock price, exchange rate and interest rate. Research limitations/implications The linkage between stock market, foreign exchange market and money market in case of emerging countries like India is more relevant because negative or positive shocks affecting one market may be transmitted quickly to another through contagious effect. Originality/value Little attention has been given to examine the link between stock return, exchange rate and interest rate in India. This study adopts a more sophisticated MODWT approach for examining the cross-correlation and causality.

scholarly journals The dynamic response of the rand real exchange rate to fundamental shocks

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The authors analyse the relationship between the South African real exchange rate and economic fundamentals – demand, supply and nominal shocks. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a time-varying parameter VAR to study the coherence, conditional volatility and impulse responses of the exchange rate over specific periods and policy regimes. The model is identified using sign-restrictions that allow for some neutrality of impulse responses over contemporaneous and long horizons. Findings – The results suggest that the importance of fundamental shocks on the exchange rate is time dependent. Hence there is a loss in information when using standard linear models that average out effects over time. The response of the exchange rate to demand and supply shocks have weakened over the 1994-2010 period. Research limitations/implications – The period following financial crisis has strengthened the relationship between supply and demand shocks to the exchange rate, but has weakened the relationship between interest rate shocks and the exchange rate response. Practical implications – This paper provides deeper insight as to how the exchange rate responds to fundamental shocks. This should help monetary policy understand the consequences of interest rate decisions on the exchange rate and the indirect effect of inflation on the exchange rate. Originality/value – This application is new to the South African literature. The authors propose that the use of interest rates is limited in affecting the value of the rand exchange rate over particular periods. Isolating fundamental shocks to exchange rates over time helps policy makers make clearer and more informed decisions.

Determinants of housing inflation in Turkey: a conditional frequency domain causality

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Kırca ◽  
Şerif Canbay
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Interest ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Subject

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect. Findings According to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate. Research limitations/implications The first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation. Originality/value Housing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.

The pattern of exchange rate co-movement in selected African countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 928-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Carsamer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Market Integration

Purpose The concept of co-movement has witnessed a resurgence in the international finance literature in recent years after the black swan events. This might be due to a renewed focus on globalization and financial market integration in the world over. The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic linkages in the foreign exchange market resulting from recent globalization and financial market integration in Africa. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual framework was adapted from the extant literature and was used as the basis of modeling foreign exchange market in Africa. This paper adopts a quantitative research approach and opted for dynamic panel data analysis to empirically unearth the determinants of foreign exchange market co-movement. Findings It is interesting to note that exchange rate co-movements were externally determined. Robust support was found for trade intensity, competition and world interest rate on foreign exchange rates co-movement, but regional interest rate differential decreased it. These findings clearly demonstrate the level of financial development and challenges that sometimes exist in exchange rate policy implementation by policy makers in Africa. Research limitations/implications Future research might incorporate bilateral investment into the model of exchange rate correlation. Originality/value Studies focussing on simultaneous consideration of intensity, trade competition and capital account openness to exchange rate correlations in the contexts of Africa are almost non-existent, and this study makes an important contribution in not only addressing this imbalance but also more importantly improving the relatively parsimonious literature on foreign exchange co-movement.

Connecting the poor: the internet, mobile phones and financial inclusion in Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 568-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaniyi Evans
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phones ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
The Internet ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The increased adoption of internet-enabled phones in Africa has caused much speculation and optimism concerning its effects on financial inclusion. Policymakers, the media and various studies have all flaunted the potentials of internet and mobile phones for financial inclusion. An important question therefore is “Can the internet and mobile phones spur the inclusion of the financially excluded poor? This study therefore aims to examine the relationship and causality between internet, mobile phones and financial inclusion in Africa for the 2000-2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis followed these three steps: examination of the stationarity of the variables; testing for the cointegration; and evaluation of the effects of the internet and mobile phones on financial inclusion in Africa for the 2000-2016 period using three outcomes of panel FMOLS approach and Granger causality tests. Findings The empirical evidence shows that internet and mobile phones have significant positive relationship with financial inclusion, meaning that rising levels of internet and mobile phones are associated with increased financial inclusion. There is also uni-directional causality from internet and mobile phones to financial inclusion, implying that internet and mobile phones cause financial inclusion. The study also shows that macroeconomic factors such as capital formation, primary enrollment, bank credit, broad money, population growth, remittances, agriculture and interest rate, as well as institutional factors such as regulatory quality are important underlying factors for financial inclusion in Africa. Originality/value In the literature, there is a dearth of research on the internet, mobile phones and financial inclusion, especially in Africa. Most of the related studies are conceptual and micro-based, with little empirical attention to the relationship and causality between internet, mobile phones and financial inclusion. In fact, this dearth of rigorous empirical studies has been attributed as the main cause of inadequate policy guidance in enhancing information communication technologies (Roycroft and Anantho, 2003), despite saturation levels in developed economies. This study fills the gap by evaluating the effects of the Internet and mobile phones on financial inclusion for 44 African countries for the 2000-2016 period.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between NPLs and Real Economy: Evidence from the Mongolian Banking System

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155
Author(s):  
Enkhzaya Demid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Credit Quality ◽  
Loan Supply ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The paper analyses the relationship between the banks’ credit risk and macroeconomic conditions by addressing the following questions; (i) How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to lending risk depending on the ban-specific features? (ii) Are the effects of macroeconomic shocks different across the loan portfolios in various economic sectors? Unlike the common assumption in the literature, the empirical analysis considers banks’ heterogeneity and diversification across borrowers. It employs heterogeneous panel SVARs and standard SVAR models on a dataset from 2002. Q1 to 2019.Q1. The results suggest that the deterioration in credit quality is affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, with substantial heterogeneity in the magnitudes and timing in terms of the type of loans in various business sectors and bank characteristics. In particular, we find strong evidence of cyclical sensitivity of loan quality, and about 1/4 of banks’ NPLs increases stronger in response to the shocks to growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and profitability. The highly profitable banks tend to less engage in excessive risk-taking, resulting in lower NPLs, whereas the relation of asset size to NPLs is not significant for the sample. A growth shock plays a prominent role in explaining the variation of NPLs for the trade and mining sectors. Similarly, the loan supply shock is the main determinant for the construction sector’s NPLs, while the exchange rate shock is the most responsible for the manufacturing sector. The interest rate shock and exchange rate shock are the most effective factors on NPLs of consumer loans. Finally, the feedback effect of NPLs shows that deterioration of credit quality slows down economic growth.

scholarly journals PENGARUH LOAN TO DEPOSITE RATIO, RETURN ON ASSETS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, EXCHANGE RATE DAN INTEREST RATE TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 340
Author(s):  
Ketut Asmara Jaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Lm Test

Pertumbuhan pasar modal pada akhir tahun 2010 menunjukkan kinerja yang luar biasa dengan meningkatnya kembali nilai saham dengan dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, baik faktor internal ataupun faktor eksternal dari setiap perusahaan. Studi ini menganalisis untuk pinjaman deposit rasio (LDR), pengembalian asset (ROA), rasio kecukupan modal (CAR), nilai tukar dan suku bunga yang berdampak pada keuntungan saham di perusahaan perbankan. Studi panel ini menggunakan data LM test statistik yang menunjukkan perhitungan metode random effect adalah cara yang lebih tepat digunakan untuk mengestimasi model dalam penelitian ini. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa variabel ROA memberikan pengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam return saham. Sedangkan variabel LDR, CAR dan Kurs tidak ada pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap return saham, dan hanya kecenderungan jika LDR, CAR dan Kurs meningkat maka return saham dapat meningkat pula Suku bunga variabel tidak memberikan pengaruh positif dan pengaruh signifikan karena tidak memiliki hubungan dengan return saham.Growth of Capital market in late 2010 showed outstanding performance with rising of stock return which is influenced by various factors, both internal factors and external factors of each company it self. This study analyzes the Loan To Deposite Ratio (LDR), Return On Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Exchange Rate and Interest Rate impact on stock returns in corporate banking. This study uses panel data with LM Test statistical calculation it is shown that Random Effect method is more precise to be used in this study. The result of the study shown that ROA variable gives positive and significant influence in stock return. While LDR, variables CAR and exchange rate of no influence and significantly to return stock, and only tendency if LDR, CAR and exchange rate increase then return shares can be increased as well. The Interest Rate variable did not give positive and significant influence because of not having relationship with stock return.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE: PUBLIC FINANCE AND INSURANCE IN LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-142
Author(s):  
Caio Augusto Franco Lucas ◽  
Rafael Martins Noriller ◽  
Rosemar José Hall ◽  
Maria Aparecida Farias de Souza Nogueira ◽  
Ducineli Regis Botelho
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Capital Structure

This article analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the capital structure of public finance and insurance companies in Latin America and Asia. The variables used were: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange Rate (ER), Interest Rate (%Δ IR), and Capital Structure (CS). Data were analyzed annually from 2010 to 2018 by static panel analysis and multiple regression using the Newey-West estimator. Interest rate and exchange rate were negatively correlated with CS. However, GDP was not significantly correlated with CS at 10% probability. It is concluded that macroeconomics interferes with the capital structure of financial institutions in Latin America and Asia.

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