scholarly journals The dynamic response of the rand real exchange rate to fundamental shocks

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The authors analyse the relationship between the South African real exchange rate and economic fundamentals – demand, supply and nominal shocks. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a time-varying parameter VAR to study the coherence, conditional volatility and impulse responses of the exchange rate over specific periods and policy regimes. The model is identified using sign-restrictions that allow for some neutrality of impulse responses over contemporaneous and long horizons. Findings – The results suggest that the importance of fundamental shocks on the exchange rate is time dependent. Hence there is a loss in information when using standard linear models that average out effects over time. The response of the exchange rate to demand and supply shocks have weakened over the 1994-2010 period. Research limitations/implications – The period following financial crisis has strengthened the relationship between supply and demand shocks to the exchange rate, but has weakened the relationship between interest rate shocks and the exchange rate response. Practical implications – This paper provides deeper insight as to how the exchange rate responds to fundamental shocks. This should help monetary policy understand the consequences of interest rate decisions on the exchange rate and the indirect effect of inflation on the exchange rate. Originality/value – This application is new to the South African literature. The authors propose that the use of interest rates is limited in affecting the value of the rand exchange rate over particular periods. Isolating fundamental shocks to exchange rates over time helps policy makers make clearer and more informed decisions.

The long-run interrelationship between exchange rate and interest rate: the case of Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 1380-1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Capasso ◽  
Oreste Napolitano ◽  
Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-term nature of the interrelationship between interest rate and exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach By employing Mexican data, the authors estimate a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to investigate the nature of the changes and the interaction between interest rate and exchange rate in response to monetary authorities’ actions. Findings The results show that, contrary to simplistic predictions, the real exchange rate causes the real interest rate in an asymmetric way. The bounds testing approach of the NARDL models suggests the presence of co-integration among the variables and the exchange rate variations appear to have significant long-run effects on the interest rate. Most importantly, these effects are asymmetric and positive variations in the exchange rate have a lower impact on the interest rate. It is also interesting to report that the reverse is not true: the interest rate in the long-run exerts no statistical significant impact on the exchange rate. Practical implications The asymmetric long-term relationship between real exchange rate and real interest rate is evidence of why monetary authorities are reluctant to free float exchange rate. In Mexico, as in most developing countries, monetary policy strongly responds to exchange rate movements because these have relevant effects on commercial trade. Moreover, in dollarized economies these effects are stronger because of pass-through impacts to inflation, income distribution and balance-sheet equilibrium (the well-known “original sin”). Originality/value Under inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regime, despite central banks pursue the control of short-term interest rate, in the long-run one could observe that it is the exchange rate that influences the interest rate, and that this reverse causality is stronger in emerging economies. This paper contributes by analysing the asymmetric relationship between the variables.

scholarly journals Exchange rate undervaluation and sectoral performance of the South African economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 636-649
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to uncover the channels through which real exchange rate undervaluation influences the performance of the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The author decomposes the South African economy into three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services. Specifying a model for each sector, the author employs the ordinary least squares (with Newey-West and robust standard errors) and generalized method of moments estimation techniques. The annual time series data cover the period 1962-2014. Findings The author finds that real exchange rate undervaluation exerted a positive influence on agriculture and industry, and a negative impact on services. Research limitations/implications The results have practical policy implications, which are discussed in the paper. Originality/value Although the growth effect of real exchange rate undervaluation has been well established in the literature, the channels through which this occurs has received limited attention. Prior to this study, no study has considered the impact of real exchange rate undervaluation on the economy through the various sectors in the South African context.

scholarly journals Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Van Anh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches. Findings The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER. Originality/value The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

scholarly journals Asymmetries in the euro area and TFP growth: evidence from three major European economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Bellocchi ◽  
Edgar Sanchez Carrera ◽  
Giuseppe Travaglini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Misallocation ◽  
European Economies

PurposeIn this paper, the authors study the long-run determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in three major European economies over the period 1983–2017, namely Germany, France and Italy.Design/methodology/approachThe authors focus on the capital misallocation effects, scale effects and labor misallocation effects. To this end, the authors study how real interest rate shocks, real exchange rate shocks, real wage shocks and changes in labor regulation affected TFP in major European countries over the last decades. The authors employ a theoretical and an empirical model to investigate the issue. The empirical results are obtained using a VAR model for estimation.FindingsA stripped-down model of labor market in open economy with technology progress allows to identify the relevant variables affecting TFP. On the empirical ground, the authors find a positive relationship between TFP and real interest rate in the long run. Importantly, the authors detect a positive relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. Further, the authors show that the TFP can respond positively to a stricter labor market regulation and to a higher real compensation per employee. The results provide support to the idea that TFP has a positive relation with prices in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price rigidity.Research limitations/implicationsThe present model is stylized and may not capture all of the details of reality. The analysis should be extended to a larger number of countries. Technology progress could be proxied using different variables, as the R&D expenditure or the number of patents. Micro data, for specific sectors and industries, can improve the quality of the empirical investigation.Practical implicationsMainly the authors find that TFP has a positive relationship with price changes in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price stickiness. Capital misallocation and labor misallocation can negatively affect TFP. Thus, the observed divergences in European TFP can be traced back to the misallocation effects attributable to the decrease of real interest rate and real wages, together with the raising labor flexibility. Mainly, the authors detect a positive long-run relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. This outcome strengthens the supply-side view of the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate.Social implicationsThe authors believe that the present setup can be helpful to reflect critically on the nodes at the core of the productivity slowdown and asymmetries in the eurozone. The aim is to implement renewed policies in order to favor economic growth, convergence and stability in the euro area.Originality/valueThis research addresses the issue of asymmetries among European economies by focusing on the role played by real prices in the long run. Traditionally, the dynamics of TFP have been attributed only to technological components, human capital and knowledge. This work shows that the dynamics of prices such as the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and the real wage can also influence the technological process by pushing the production system toward choices that are not always optimal for economic growth. An interesting result of this research concerns the positive relationship between real exchange rates and TFP in the long term, evidence of an important supply-side effect on the technological process.

The determinants of corporate profitability: an investigation of Indian manufacturing firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swagatika Nanda ◽  
Ajaya Kumar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It assesses the main determinants of firm’s profitability in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period from 2000 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach This methodology splits the factors that influence firm profitability in two groups: firm-specific (internal) factors and macroeconomic indicators. It further aims to look at the consistency of the factors in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period. The return on assets and the net profit margin are considered as proxy for corporate profits. The panel generalized least square and panel vector auto-regression model have been employed, and it is observed that the exchange rate seems to have played a major role in the crisis period by explaining the earning quotient for Indian firms. Findings This paper concludes that the firm-specific variables and exchange rate channels are quite relevant in explaining the profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It accepts the hypotheses that size and liquidity enhances whereas leverage discourages the profitability. Few exceptions have been observed during the crisis period. The study also concludes that in the short run, the changes in exchange rate are not increasing profitability, but in the long run, it increases profitability as the volatility of nominal exchange rate is positively impacting profitability. Moreover, the study finds that the nominal exchange rate index is more informative and explains that profitability is better than real exchange rate index in the case of Indian manufacturing firms over the study period. Research limitations/implications The managers and the policy makers should give utmost importance to the firm-specific determinants, especially after the crisis period, and consider the appropriate exchange rate to evaluate firm performance for making any change in the policy to make any business profitable. Originality/value This study has been conducted over a longer time by using advanced panel data analysis techniques on the recent data. The study period properly captures the crisis time and the research includes different selection of profitability that highlights corporate earnings pattern. Moreover, validation of the exchange rate sensitivity of profitability over nominal and real exchange rate increases the robustness of the study. Moreover, on Indian manufacturing firms, the study is very significant and unique.

scholarly journals The relationship between petroleum price and real exchange rate: an example of Iraq

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Dindar Saeed Saeed ◽  
Sadeq Taha Abdulazeez ◽  
Sarbast Kamal Rasheed ◽  
Rogash Younis Masiha ◽  
Diyar Hashim Malo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Price ◽  
Energy Product ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

Petroleum is one of the world's most important economic products. It is widely accepted that petroleum is not only an energy product, but also a financial asset. Therefore, it is important to understand the dependence of petroleum prices on economic conditions and financial markets and how they can affect the world economy. The fluctuations in world petroleum prices affect the economies of petroleum importing countries through different channels. One of the most important of these influence channels is the exchange rate. Because changes in exchange rates cause different economic problems in fragile economies. Changes in petroleum prices affect the economic performance of any country through various channels. One of the channels of influence is exchange rates. Petroleum prices affect the transfer of income from petroleum exporting countries to petroleum importing countries through trade and thus determine the exchange rate. In this study, the Relationship between Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate in Iraq was examined by ADF unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. For the analysis, the Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate data of Iraq were taken from the official website of the World Bank and transferred to the Eviews 10 program and necessary analyzes were made. The results of the analysis were analyzed and interpreted in tables.

The dynamic linkage between exchange rate, stock price and interest rate in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malepati Jayashankar ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate for India. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014, this study has scrutinized the linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) which is very much appropriate when the variables are discrete in nature. Findings Our major findings indicate that the empirical relationship between these variables is not significant at lower scales. As we go on higher scales, there is a clear linkage between them, and three markets are associated with each other. Moreover, the direction and type of the relationship depends on the frequency bands, and finally with the help of Granger causality tests, we established a lead/lag relationship between stock price, exchange rate and interest rate. Research limitations/implications The linkage between stock market, foreign exchange market and money market in case of emerging countries like India is more relevant because negative or positive shocks affecting one market may be transmitted quickly to another through contagious effect. Originality/value Little attention has been given to examine the link between stock return, exchange rate and interest rate in India. This study adopts a more sophisticated MODWT approach for examining the cross-correlation and causality.

scholarly journals Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Inflation, Growth, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in Turkey

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nezir Köse ◽  
Mehmet Kenan Terzioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Exchange Rate

In this study, the effects of inflation uncertainty to inflation, economic growth, real exchange rate and interest rate is investigated in the framework of BEKK-MGARCH and DCC-MGARCH models by using the 1987Q1–2013Q3 quarterly periods data in the perspective of Turkey’s economic structure. High inflation periods before 2003 and low inflation periods after 2003 was evaluated separately by means of slope dummy variable. The findings show that during both high and low inflation periods inflation uncertainty does not affect the exchange rate and has an increasing effect on inflation. Whereas, it is found that while the effect of inflation uncertainty on economic growth is positive during the periods of high inflation, its effect turns negative in low inflation periods Moreover, it is determined that inflation uncertainty has an reducing impact on interest rate in high inflation periods and its effects become positive in low inflation periods.

scholarly journals Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade: Some Empirical Evidence in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wong Hock Tsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Relative Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the relationship between real exchange rate and terms of trade in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand in two cases, namely a three-variable case and a four-variable case. The results of cointegration tests showed that there is long-run relationships among real exchange rate, terms of trade, and relative demand for Malaysia. Moreover, there is long-run relationship among real exchange rate, terms of trade, relative demand, and relative real interest rate for Malaysia and Thailand. The results of Granger causality showed that real exchange rate does not Granger cause terms of trade, however the result is mixed for Thailand. The contribution of terms of trade and relative demand to real exchange rate is mixed and small. Generally, the contribution of terms of trade to real exchange rate is greater than the contribution of relative demand in Singapore. For Thailand, relative demand is more important than terms of trade in the determination of real exchange rate. For Malaysia, the results are mixed.  

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