Shifting tourism flows in a changing climate: policy implications for the Caribbean

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwame Emmanuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Tourism Flows

Purpose – Population growth, climate change, shortages of oil and other resources will have dramatic implication on where, when and how tourists travel in the future. This will also reshape the tourism industry for the future. Knowing what will happen in the future has always fascinated mankind from time immemorial. However, forecasting and predictions require not only a systematic approach to development but also an imagination and the ability to think and see beyond the ordinary. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to underscore the projected northward shift in tourism demand due to the global impacts of climate change and the lack of policy attention. Design/methodology/approach – A rapid assessment of the literature was conducted to explore tourism flows to the Caribbean in a changing climate and recommendations for adaptation. Findings – Tourism demand from major markets such as Europe and North America may be reduced significantly as tourists travel to other destinations, which are closer to home and have a more favourable climate. Regulation of carbon emissions from long haul flights will also influence demand substitution. Despite this projection, current policies in the Caribbean promote further development of the climate sensitive 3S model without anticipating a possible decrease in demand in the future. Research limitations/implications – Research implications include a recalibration of tourism policy and diversification of Caribbean tourism and economies. Originality/value – Recommendations are outlined for a critical issue that is not on the policy agenda.

Fiction or reality? Hotel leaders’ perception on climate action and sustainable business models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-260
Author(s):  
Emily Gaynor Dick-Forde ◽  
Elin Merethe Oftedal ◽  
Giovanna Merethe Bertella
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Caribbean

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the perceptions of key actors in the Caribbean’s hotel industry on the development of business models that are inclusive of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and resilient to climate change challenges. The objectives are to gain a better understanding of the central actors’ perspective and to explore the potential of scenario thinking as a pragmatic tool to provoke deep and practical reflections on business model innovation. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on a questionnaire survey conducted via email to senior personnel in the hotel industry across the region as well as to national and regional tourism and hospitality associations/agencies and government ministries. The questionnaire used a mix of close- and open-ended questions, as well as fictional scenarios to gain insight about perceptions from key actors in the tourism sector, including respondents’ personal beliefs about the reality of climate science and the need for action at the levels of individuals, governments, local, regional and multinational institutions. Findings The study found that while the awareness of climate change and willingness to action is high, respondents perceive that hotels are not prepared for the climate crisis. Respondents had an overall view that the hotel sector in the Caribbean was unprepared for the negative impacts of climate change. Recommendations from the study include the need for immediate action on the part of all to both raise awareness and implement focused climate action to secure the future of tourism in the Caribbean. Research limitations/implications The use of a survey has considerable challenges, including low response rates and the limitations of using perceptions to understand a phenomenon. The survey was conducted across the Caribbean from The Bahamas to Belize and down to Trinidad and Tobago so that views from across the similar, yet diverse, regions could be gathered, included and compared for a comprehensive view of perceptions and possible ideas for climate smart action. Practical implications The 2030 Agenda for SDGs is based on policy and academic debates. This study helps to bridge the academic and policy discussion with the needs of the industry. Originality/value This study contributes a consideration for climate-resilient business models for hotels in the tourism industry as a definitive action toward achieving SDG 13. This combined with the use of fictional climate change scenarios to access perceptions about the future of the hotel industry in the light of climate change, adds originality to the study.

The future of Caribbean tourism: competition and climate change implications

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Mackay ◽  
Andrew Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Broad Perspective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Caribbean Tourism

Purpose This conceptual paper examines the Caribbean tourism sector, its growth, performance, importance and its vulnerability to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to serve as an introduction to the on-going conversation around climate change and the socioeconomic impacts likely to be experienced in tourism-dependent Caribbean territories. Design/methodology/approach The Caribbean is used as the context of this work. A broad perspective was adopted to paint a picture of the wider implications. The region is represented by a multiplicity of country profiles, both in physical and socio-economic characteristics; this warrants a broad assessment of the issues examined here. Findings This work shows that the Caribbean tourism sectors face significant future threats related to both competitiveness and climate change impacts. For a region so heavily dependent on coastal- and marine-related tourism attractions, adaptation and resilience are critical issues facing Caribbean tourism. An effective approach to building resilience to climate change requires extensive regional cooperation. Research limitations/implications While there is much published on the matter of climate change implications in the general global context, there is considerably less published work specifically examining the likely effects climate change will have on the special socio-economic features of the Caribbean and on the tourism industry in particular. Practical implications The lack of extensive and ongoing research dedicated to climate change implications for Caribbean tourism, while limiting the scope of this work, does highlight a gap and open the door for future work that examines, in greater detail both collectively and on an individual country basis, the climate change implications for tourism industries throughout the region. Social implications Climate change vulnerabilities in the region present a significant threat to economic development, employment and food security among others. Coastal flooding, infrastructural damage and the potential displacement of coastal communities present significant impediments to the quality of life of Caribbean nationals. The social implications necessitate further in-depth study to inform the development of adaptation strategies that may secure the tourism industry and the livelihoods and lifestyles of the people. Originality/value This work is original in its evaluation of the viewpoints of climate change vulnerability specific to the Caribbean tourism sector.

Climate change, tourism and water resources in the Mediterranean

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Roson ◽  
Martina Sartori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Service Industries ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tourism Flows

Purpose – This paper aims to present and discuss some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries. Design/methodology/approach – Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a tourism climate index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitation, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. The authors estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model. Findings – The authors found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The authors found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall. Research limitations/implications – A great deal of uncertainty affects, in particular: estimates of future climate conditions, especially for variables different from temperature, the relationship between climate and tourist demand, and its interaction with socio-economic variables. This also depends on the reliability of the TCI index as an indicator of climate suitability for tourism, on its application to spatially and temporally aggregated data, on the degree of responsiveness of tourism demand to variations in the TCI. Furthermore, as the authors followed here a single region approach, the authors were not able to consider in the estimates the impact of climate change on the global tourism industry. Nonetheless, the authors believe that a quantitative analysis like the one presented here is not without scope. First, it provides an order of magnitude for the impact of climate change on tourism and the national economy. Second, it allows to assess systemic and second-order effects, which are especially relevant in this context and, moreover, appear to be sufficiently robust to alternative model specifications. In other words, the value added of this study does not lie in the specific figures obtained by numerical computations, but on the broader picture emerging from the overall exercise. Originality/value – To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in which, by assessing higher tourism attractiveness into a general equilibrium framework, the effect described above is detected and highlighted.

Climate change will affect European tourism flows

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Air Conditioning Systems ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
Lower Carbon

Subject European tourism. Significance Tourism is crucial for Mediterranean economies, driven by the comparative advantage of attractive climates and physical environments. However, the Mediterranean is one of the European regions worst affected by climate change. This will have implications for tourism demand in the region and across Europe. Impacts Tourism growth in Spain, France and Italy could slow as other Mediterranean countries recover from tourism downturns. Coastal erosion threatens to displace settlement and increase migration to inland areas. Freshwater resources will diminish with lower rainfall, seawater infiltration and increased demand, resulting in greater water scarcity. Changes in temperatures and rainfall will affect food production, including reducing yields and raising demands on irrigation. Businesses are being driven towards lower carbon emissions through new heating and air-conditioning systems and better insulation.

scholarly journals Accessible tourism futures: the world we dream to live in and the opportunities we hope to have

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Michopoulou ◽  
Simon Darcy ◽  
Ivor Ambrose ◽  
Dimitros Buhalis
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Stakeholder Collaboration ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Policy ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Delphi Approach ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Future

Purpose Accessible tourism is evolving as a field of academic research and industry practice, set within a dynamic social context. The field is interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary. The purpose of this paper is to examine key concepts and global initiatives that will shape accessible tourism futures. Design/methodology/approach Three of the authors have extensive academic experience in the area and the fourth author is the Managing Director of the pre-eminent European Network for Accessible Tourism. In taking a limited Delphi approach to canvassing key areas likely to shape accessible tourism futures, the following concepts and policy initiatives were examined: motivations, dreams and aspirations of people with disability; demography; UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; destination competitiveness; universal design (UD); and the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Findings A discussion of each of the above areas was placed in context to accessible tourism futures and to contextualise the papers that were selected for the special issue. The latter part of the paper outlines the contribution of each empirical paper to the issue discussing the approach, findings and implications. Stakeholder collaboration was identified as the key common theme of the papers and the factor for developing accessible tourism solutions, recognising the value of the market and capitalising on it. A collaborative approach is required to recognise the complementary nature of the different paradigms; to re-shape and transform the future of the accessible tourism industry. To assist in the development of accessible tourism futures, UD principles should provide a foundation to enhance the future competitiveness of tourism destinations and organisations. Originality/value The paper’s examination of the concepts and global policy considerations provides a strong academic and practitioner foundation for considering accessible tourism futures. In doing so, accessible tourism futures are shown to be affected by key concepts related to core tourism considerations and major policy initiatives on accessibility and sustainability. Yet, accessible tourism futures also have the potential to create their own momentum and contribute unique learnings on the diversity of tourism markets that will shape tourism concepts and global policy initiatives in their own right.

Sustainability as a key driver to address challenges

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 662-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Célia Veiga ◽  
Margarida Custódio Santos ◽  
Paulo Águas ◽  
José António C. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Good Practices ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Specific Objective ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
Systematic Identification ◽  
Accurate Quantification

Purpose This study aims to address the paradigm changes currently affecting tourism: the increasingly recognisable signs of irreversible climate change and the consequences of this and overtourism for service providers, destinations and tourists’ experiences. A more specific objective was to identify good practices carried out by destinations and companies in different tourism sectors to increase sustainability. Design/methodology/approach The research involved examining the academic, institutional and trade literature to develop an overview of the most important challenges and an accurate portrayal of how innovative and proactive companies and destination managers are addressing these issues. Findings Increased tourism demand has contributed to social and environmental unsustainability in tourism. Although the tourism sector has already implemented sustainable initiatives, an accurate quantification and measurement of these practices’ real impacts on global tourism’s sustainability is not yet possible. Originality/value This study’s value arises from the systematic identification of the implications of climate change and overtourism as major features of a paradigm shift in tourism. This paper also presents a set of good practices to provide tourism stakeholders with more sustainable strategies and inspire these entities to adopt appropriate measures.

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

scholarly journals FORMATION FEATURES OF INVESTMENT POTENTIAL INDICATORS OF TOURISM AS AN ECONOMIC REALM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anatolii Mazaraki ◽  
Kateryna Antoniuk
Keyword(s):  
Service Industry ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Synthetic Indicator ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Resources ◽  
Tourism Flows

The article considers the main indicators that form an image of the investment potential of tourism. These indicators are characterized taking into account two aspects: economic and tourism, inasmuch as tourism is a component of the national economy, but as an industry has its own specific features and differences that require special attention. The economic performance provides the analysis of economic indicators of the region as a whole, the tourist performance is necessary to define the local tourist potential: natural resources, establishments of service industry, indicators of demand for tourist services and other. We have suggested a system of indicators that are decisive in characterizing the investment potential of the tourism industry of the regions, which will make it possible in the future to compile a rating of regions using these indicators according to investment attractiveness and potential of the tourism industry, namely the following indicators: financial resources, labor, production, capacity index number of tourism flows, indicators of demand and supply of tourist services, tourists who have visited the region, the number of tour days according to the holiday packages implemented, the number of tourism entities, numbers, available places, available tourism resources, tourism efficiency and indicators of economic importance of tourism development for the country in general. Rating is based on a quantitative assessment of synthetic (generalized) indicators. Each synthetic indicator of a particular industry and the region is constructed based on a set of analytical indicators making a part of them that in the future will make it possible to form a unified integrated indicator that characterizes the investment potential of the region. Besides, we have developed the scheme of stages to rate the regions according to the indicator of investment attractiveness and assessment of investment potential of the region according to various indicators. Subsequently these indicators will make it possible to forecast particular actions for investment support of the region or the studied industry, as well as their rating according to the degree of attractiveness and possible construction of a map with investment-attractive region.

scholarly journals “Tourism for all?” Considering social tourism: a perspective paper

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott McCabe
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Concise Overview ◽  
The Future

Purpose This paper aims to outline the context for social tourism as an approach that can help deliver societal goals, such as reducing inequalities, as well as benefits for deserving beneficiaries and the tourism industry. The paper highlights how social tourism can develop in the future. Design/methodology/approach The paper takes a conceptual approach to discuss these issues. Findings This paper finds that there is a great deal of potential for social tourism to contribute to the future sustainability in the tourism industry. Originality/value This paper provides a concise overview of the topic of social tourism and a model that can help researchers and other readers to understand the ways that social tourism can contribute towards a more sustainable and equitable tourism future.

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