Flood hazard mapping and analysis under climate change using hydro-dynamic model and RCPs emission scenario in Woybo River catchment of Ethiopia

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tigistu Yisihak Ukumo ◽  
Adane Abebe ◽  
Tarun Kumar Lohani ◽  
Muluneh Legesse Edamo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hazard Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
High Hazard

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to prepare flood hazard map and show the extent of flood hazard under climate change scenarios in Woybo River catchment. The hydraulic model, Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to simulate the floods under future climate scenarios. The impact of climate changes on severity of flooding was evaluated for the mid-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) with relative to a baseline period (1971–2000). Design/methodology/approach Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias corrected outputs of five regional climate models and the inflow hydrographs for 10, 25, 50 and 100 years design floods were derived from the flow which generated from HEC-hydrological modeling system; that was an input for the HEC-RAS model to generate the flood hazard maps in the catchment. Findings The results of this research show that 25.68% of the study area can be classified as very high hazard class while 28.56% of the area is under high hazard. It was also found that 20.20% is under moderate hazard and about 25.56% is under low hazard class in future under high emission scenario. The projected area to be flooded in far future relative to the baseline period is 66.3 ha of land which accounts for 62.82% from the total area. This study suggested that agricultural/crop land located at the right side of the Woybo River near the flood plain would be affected more with the 25, 50 and 100 years design floods. Originality/value Multiple climate models were assessed properly and the ensemble mean was used to prepare flood hazard map using HEC-RAS modeling.

scholarly journals A Space Domain Energetics Study for CO2Increasing Based on SRES-A2 Emission Scenario

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Augusto P. Veiga ◽  
Tercio Ambrizzi ◽  
Alexandre B. Pezza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Energetic Formulation ◽  
Good Agreement

This work presents a detailed investigation of the changes in the global pattern of energetics under a prescribed temporal evolution of CO2concentration as proposed by the A2 IPCC forcing scenario (SRES-A2) using a combination of reanalysis and climate models. A validation climatology is computed using the classic Lorenz energetic formulation, with generation and dissipation components estimated as residuals. The results show a good agreement overall between models and reanalysis for the present day climate, noting that the models generally give more zonal energy and less eddy energy when compared to the reanalysis. Spatial analysis translates the above results as models depicting greater energy associated with the subtropical jet streams than effectively observed. This pattern is observed regardless of season or hemisphere. The projections for future climate scenarios suggest a further increase in the zonal kinetic energy, with a slight average reduction in all other terms. This pattern is seen in association with a substantial decrease in the conversion term mainly associated with sensible heat transport (CA) under a warmer climate. In agreement with recent work in the literature, our results suggest an overall reduction of the global energetics under increasing CO2.

scholarly journals Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 7357-7385 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Delgado ◽  
B. Merz ◽  
H. Apel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Alternative Approach

Abstract. Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario – global climate model – downscaling, possibly including bias correction – hydrological model – flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires large efforts, and their complexity is high. We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario – global climate model – non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a nonstationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.

scholarly journals Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1579-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Delgado ◽  
B. Merz ◽  
H. Apel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Alternative Approach

Abstract. Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario – global climate model – downscaling, possibly including bias correction – hydrological model – flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high. We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario – global climate model – non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon–flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.

The alignment of global equity and corporate bonds markets with the Paris Agreement

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Thomä ◽  
Michael Hayne ◽  
Nikolaus Hagedorn ◽  
Clare Murray ◽  
Rebecca Grattage
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Accounting Principles ◽  
Asset Classes

Purpose To comply with the adopted Paris Agreement, global finance flows must be measured against climate scenarios consistent with possible pathways towards limiting global warming to 2°C or less. For this, there must be proven and accepted accounting principles for assessing financial plans of climate relevant actors against climate models. As there are a variety of data sources describing the financial plans of relevant actors, these principles must accommodate a variety of reported information, while still yielding relevant metrics to different stakeholders. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach A set of accounting principles tested by governments, financial supervisory bodies and both institutional investors and mangers, covering global-listed equity and corporate bond investment is described. Findings The application illustrates that a common set of accounting principles can act across both asset classes and provide relevant metrics to multiple stakeholders. Research limitations/implications The principles require data of varying quality and are ultimately unverified. Thus, the definitive quality of the output metrics is uncertain and is yet to be characterized. The principles are yet to be applied to the credit market as the information is seldom publicly available, but it too plays an important role in the required market transition and therefore must be incorporated into these guiding principles of analysis. Practical implications The principles allow for standardised assessment of financial flows of equity and corporate debt with global climate scenarios. Originality/value It illustrates the acceptance of a common set of accounting principles that is relevant across different actors and asset classes and summarizes the principles underlying the first climate finance scenario analyses.

Flash flood hazard mapping based on AHP with GIS and satellite information in Kampong Speu Province, Cambodia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chhuonvuoch Koem ◽  
Sarintip Tantanee
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Satellite Information ◽  
Flood Hazard Map ◽  
Hazard Levels

Purpose Cambodia is considered one of the countries that are most vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change, particularly floods and droughts. Kampong Speu Province is a frequent site of calamitous flash floods. Reliable sources of flash flood information and analysis are critical in efforts to minimize the impact of flooding. Unfortunately, Cambodia does not yet have a comprehensive program for flash flood hazard mapping, with many places such as Kampong Speu Province having no such information resources available. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to determine flash flood hazard levels across all of Kampong Speu Province using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS) with satellite information. Design/methodology/approach The integrated AHP–GIS analysis in this study encompasses ten parameters in the assessment of flash flood hazard levels across the province: rainfall, geology, soil, elevation, slope, stream order, flow direction, distance from drainage, drainage density and land use. The study uses a 10 × 10 pairwise matrix in AHP to compare the relative importance of each parameter and find each parameter’s weight. Finally, a flash flood hazard map is developed displaying all areas of Kampong Speu Province classified into five levels, with Level 5 being the most hazardous. Findings This study reveals that high and very high flash flood hazard levels are identified in the northwest part of Kampong Speu Province, particularly in Aoral, Phnum Srouch and Thpong districts and along Prek Thnot River and streams. Originality/value The flash flood hazard map developed here provides a wealth of information that can be invaluable for implementing effective disaster mitigation, improving disaster preparedness and optimizing land use.

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

Revisiting albedo from a fuzzy perspective

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Pakdaman ◽  
Majid Habibi Nokhandan ◽  
Yashar Falamarzi
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Fuzzy Number ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Fuzzy Differential Equation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuzzy Energy ◽  
Fuzzy Derivative

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to revisit the albedo for uncertainty. The albedo is considered as a fuzzy value due to some realistic reasons which they will be discussed in details. After defining an appropriate uncertain albedo by using fuzzy set theory, the related energy balance model is also redefined as a fuzzy differential equation by using the concept of fuzzy derivative.Design/methodology/approachThe well-known Earth energy balance model is redefined as a fuzzy differential equation by using the concept of fuzzy derivative. Thus, instead of an ordinary differential equation, a fuzzy differential equation arises which it's solution procedure will be discussed in details.FindingsResults indicate that the fuzzy uncertainty for albedo causes more real results after solving the fuzzy energy balance equation. Considering albedo as a fuzzy number is more realistic than considering a single certain number for albedo of a surface. This is due to this fact that the Earth's surface coverage is not crisp and the boundaries of different types of lands are not consistent. The proposed approach of this paper can help us to provide more realistic climate models and construct dynamical models which can model the albedo based on its variability.Originality/valueIn this paper, we defined fuzzy energy balance model as a fuzzy differential equation for the first time. We also, considered albedo as a fuzzy number which is another novel approach.

The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Parameter Values

Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM–RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM–RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.

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