Management of Ignorance by Interval Probability

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoe Entani ◽  
Hideo Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Interval Probability

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Circuit Breakers Using Influence Diagrams with Interval Probabilities

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 737
Author(s):  
Jelena D. Velimirovic ◽  
Aleksandar Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Circuit Breakers ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Complex Power ◽  
Interval Width ◽  
Credal Sets ◽  
The One

This paper deals with uncertainty, asymmetric information, and risk modelling in a complex power system. The uncertainty is managed by using probability and decision theory methods. More specifically, influence diagrams—as extended Bayesian network functions with interval probabilities represented through credal sets—were chosen for the predictive modelling scenario of replacing the most critical circuit breakers in optimal time. Namely, based on the available data on circuit breakers and other variables that affect the considered model of a complex power system, a group of experts was able to assess the situation using interval probabilities instead of crisp probabilities. Furthermore, the paper examines how the confidence interval width affects decision-making in this context and eliminates the information asymmetry of different experts. Based on the obtained results for each considered interval width separately on the action to be taken over the considered model in order to minimize the risk of the power system failure, it can be concluded that the proposed approach clearly indicates the advantages of using interval probability when making decisions in systems such as the one considered in this paper.

scholarly journals A Novel Blind Signal Detector Based on the Entropy of the Power Spectrum Subband Energy Ratio

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 448
Author(s):  
Han Li ◽  
Yanzhu Hu ◽  
Song Wang
Keyword(s):  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Detection Method ◽  
Multinomial Distribution ◽  
Sample Entropy ◽  
Energy Ratio ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Blind Signal ◽  
Signal Detector ◽  
Subband Energy

In this paper, we present a novel blind signal detector based on the entropy of the power spectrum subband energy ratio (PSER), the detection performance of which is significantly better than that of the classical energy detector. This detector is a full power spectrum detection method, and does not require the noise variance or prior information about the signal to be detected. According to the analysis of the statistical characteristics of the power spectrum subband energy ratio, this paper proposes concepts such as interval probability, interval entropy, sample entropy, joint interval entropy, PSER entropy, and sample entropy variance. Based on the multinomial distribution, in this paper the formulas for calculating the PSER entropy and the variance of sample entropy in the case of pure noise are derived. Based on the mixture multinomial distribution, the formulas for calculating the PSER entropy and the variance of sample entropy in the case of the signals mixed with noise are also derived. Under the constant false alarm strategy, the detector based on the entropy of the power spectrum subband energy ratio is derived. The experimental results for the primary signal detection are consistent with the theoretical calculation results, which proves that the detection method is correct.

scholarly journals Evidence Theory in Picture Fuzzy Set Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Harish Garg ◽  
R. Sujatha ◽  
D. Nagarajan ◽  
J. Kavikumar ◽  
Jeonghwan Gwak
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Evidence Theory ◽  
Belief Function ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Picture Fuzzy Set ◽  
Shafer Theory

Picture fuzzy set is the most widely used tool to handle the uncertainty with the account of three membership degrees, namely, positive, negative, and neutral such that their sum is bound up to 1. It is the generalization of the existing intuitionistic fuzzy and fuzzy sets. This paper studies the interval probability problems of the picture fuzzy sets and their belief structure. The belief function is a vital tool to represent the uncertain information in a more effective manner. On the other hand, the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is used to combine the independent sources of evidence with the low conflict. Keeping the advantages of these, in the present paper, we present the concept of the evidence theory for the picture fuzzy set environment using DST. Under this, we define the concept of interval probability distribution and discuss its properties. Finally, an illustrative example related to the decision-making process is employed to illustrate the application of the presented work.

scholarly journals Validated Prognostic Nomograms for Patients With Parotid Carcinoma Predicting 2- and 5-Year Tumor Recurrence-Free Interval Probability

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Peeperkorn ◽  
Jeroen Meulemans ◽  
Charlotte Van Lierde ◽  
Annouschka Laenen ◽  
Matthijs H. Valstar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Parotid Carcinoma ◽  
Free Interval

Interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic analytic hierarchy process and its application in talent selection

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 2627-2645
Author(s):  
Sidong Xian ◽  
Hailin Guo ◽  
Jiahui Chai ◽  
Wenhua Wan
Keyword(s):  
Linguistic Variable ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Priority Vector ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
Possibility Degree ◽  
Talent Selection ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Geometric Consistency ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic Variable ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS) can handle the qualitative and hesitant information in multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems which are widely used in various fields. However, the experts’ evaluation of information is not completely reliable in the situation where their own knowledge background is insufficient. In order to deal with deviations due to incomplete reliability of the evaluation, this paper first proposes the interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic variable (IPHFLV), which takes the HFLTS as the evaluation part and adds a novel element-reliability of evaluation, thus can describe the different credibility of information evaluation due to the familiarity of experts with schemes and the differences in knowledge cognition. The operation rules and comparison methods are also illustrated. Particularly, under the inspiration of probability theory, we propose the possibility degree of the IPHFLVs. Then we propose IPHFL-AHP based on the AHP and interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic variable. Especially, the general geometric consistency index (G-GCI) based on the unbiased estimator of the variance is presented to measure the consistency and the iterative algorithm is constructed to improve the consistency. We use the possibility degree to calculate the priority vector to acquire the total ranking and introduce the process of IPHFL-AHP. Finally, case study of talent selection is given to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document