Dynamic propagation model of crowd panic based on Shanoon's entropy theory under COVID-19 epidemic situation

Author(s):  
Rongyong Zhao ◽  
Ping Jia ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Cuiling Li ◽  
Yunlong Ma ◽  
...  
2010 ◽  
Vol 121-122 ◽  
pp. 620-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Yan Huang ◽  
Cong Jin ◽  
Song Lin Jin

According to blue-tooth viruses spread actuality, an epidemic model of blue-tooth phone virus is proposed in this paper. In this epidemic model, we proposed four basic statues to represent smart phones in different states. We also introduced some factors which can affect the basic trend of virus spreading, such as density of smart phones, length of malicious code and so on. But we mainly focused on parameter of spreading rate, and defined it as a variable which could change with time. At the end of this model, the simulation results showed the development tendency of this propagation model.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 1238 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Hilton ◽  
C. Miller ◽  
J. J. Sharples ◽  
A. L. Sullivan

The behaviour and spread of a wildfire are driven by a range of processes including convection, radiation and the transport of burning material. The combination of these processes and their interactions with environmental conditions govern the evolution of a fire’s perimeter, which can include dynamic variation in the shape and the rate of spread of the fire. It is difficult to fully parametrise the complex interactions between these processes in order to predict a fire’s behaviour. We investigate whether the local curvature of a fire perimeter, defined as the interface between burnt and unburnt regions, can be used to model the dynamic evolution of a wildfire’s progression. We find that incorporation of curvature dependence in an empirical fire propagation model provides closer agreement with the observed evolution of field-based experimental fires than without curvature dependence. The local curvature parameter may represent compounded radiation and convective effects near the flame zone of a fire. Our findings provide a means to incorporate these effects in a computationally efficient way and may lead to improved prediction capability for empirical models of rate of spread and other fire behaviour characteristics.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 168781401877589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu-Ping Gan ◽  
Qingyuan Wang ◽  
Hong-Zhong Huang

In this article, a new method for fatigue reliability analysis of crack growth life based on the maximum entropy theory and a long crack propagation model is proposed. A modified generalized passivation-lancet model for long fatigue crack propagation rate is presented with explicit physical meaning. Experimental results for turbine disk alloy ZSGH4169 under different strain ratios and temperatures (at 650°C and room temperature) are used to verify the applicability of the new model. Results show that predictions by the proposed model are almost identical to the experimental data. The presented model is better than the other three models to reflect the rapid propagation characteristics of the crack. In order to perform fatigue reliability estimation, the probabilities of failure are calculated using the maximum entropy theory based on the fatigue crack growth life that derived from the proposed modified crack propagation model and the above existing three models. Results have shown that maximum entropy theory is very apt for fatigue reliability analysis of turbine disk under different loading conditions with a limited number of samples because it does not need any distribution assumptions for random variables. The effectiveness and accuracy of the combination of fatigue crack propagation models and maximum entropy method for fatigue reliability analysis are demonstrated with examples.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Liqing Qiu ◽  
Shuqi Liu

The propagation of rumor has become a common phenomenon in social networks. Studying the dynamic propagation of rumor can help locate the key points to control rumor propagation. To further research the internal motivation of state transition, a corrector-ignorant-spreader-weakener (C-SIW) model is proposed in this paper. When the individual changes state to transmit rumor, the neighbor may have a significant impact on rumor propagation. Considering the point, this paper constructs a function to describe the propagation rate, which relates to the state of neighbors and the reputation of the spreader. In addition, perception from life also can cause individual state changes. Based on the above fact, the links from the spreader and the weakener to the corrector are added to describe the perception mechanism. Then, combining the derived average field equations, the steady state of the model is analyzed and verified in experimental simulation. Moreover, the experimental results on different networks show that the perception mechanism reduces the rumor influence. Besides, the variable propagation rate can position the fast-growing stage of rumor propagation more accurately and facilitate the control of rumor propagation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hangyu Hu ◽  
Xuemeng Zhai ◽  
Gaolei Fei ◽  
Guangmin Hu

Network information propagation analysis is gaining a more important role in network vulnerability analysis domain for preventing potential risks and threats. Identifying the influential source nodes is one of the most important problems to analyze information propagation. Traditional methods mainly focus on extracting nodes that have high degrees or local clustering coefficients. However, these nodes are not necessarily the high influential nodes in many real-world complex networks. Therefore, we propose a novel method for detecting high influential nodes based on Internet Topology Dynamic Propagation Model (ITDPM). The model consists of two processing stages: the generator and the discriminator like the generative adversarial networks (GANs). The generator stage generates the optimal source-driven nodes based on the improved network control theory and node importance characteristics, while the discriminator stage trains the information propagation process and feeds back the outputs to the generator for performing iterative optimization. Based on the generative adversarial learning, the optimal source-driven nodes are then updated in each step via network information dynamic propagation. We apply our method to random-generated complex network data and real network data; the experimental results show that our model has notable performance on identifying the most influential nodes during network operation.


1991 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 347-347
Author(s):  
No authorship indicated
Keyword(s):  

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