Ensemble of Technical Analysis and Machine Learning for Market Trend Prediction

Author(s):  
Andrea Picasso Ratto ◽  
Simone Merello ◽  
Luca Oneto ◽  
Yukun Ma ◽  
Lorenzo Malandri ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-60
Author(s):  
Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre ◽  
Ricardo Alfredo Rojas Medina ◽  
Néstor Darío Duque Méndez

The implementation of tools such as Genetic Algorithms has not been exploited for asset price prediction despite their power, robustness, and potential application in the stock market. This paper aims to fill the gap existing in the literature on the use of Genetic Algorithms for predicting asset pricing of investment strategies into stock markets and investigate its advantages over its peers Buy & Hold and traditional technical analysis. The Genetic Algorithms strategy applied to the MACD was carried out in two different validation periods and sought to optimize the parameters that generate the buy-sell signals. The performance between the machine learning-based approach, technical analysis with the MACD and B&H was compared. The results suggest that it is possible to find optimal values of the technical indicator parameters that result in a higher return on investment through Genetic Algorithms, beating the traditional technical analysis and B&H by around 4%. This study offers a new insight for practitioners, traders, and finance researchers to take advantage of Genetic Algorithms for trading rules application in forecasting financial asset returns under a more efficient and robust methodology based on historical data analysis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1584-1589
Author(s):  
J. Shiva Nandhini ◽  
Chitrak Bari ◽  
Gareja Pradip

The basic tool aimed at increasing the rate of investor’s interest in stock markets is by developing a vibrant application for analyzing and predicting stock market prices. In this report we explain, the development and implementation of a stock market price prediction application using machine learning algorithm. In this report, we try to analyze existing and new methods of stock market prediction. We take three different approaches for solving the problem: Fundamental analysis, Technical Analysis and The application of Machine Learning. We found evidence in support of the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. We can use Fundamental Analysis and Machine Learning to guide an investor’s decisions. We demonstrate a common flaw in Technical Analysis methodology to show that it produces limited useful information. Based on our findings, algorithmic trading programs are developed and simulated using Quant. During the past few decades, various machine learning techniques have been applied to study the highly theoretical and speculative nature of stock market by capturing and using repetitive patterns. Different companies use different types of analysis tools for forecasting and the main aim is the accuracy, with which they predict which set of stocks would yield the maximum amount of profit.


2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 5635-5647
Author(s):  
Xueling Nie

Big data has the characteristics of rapid data flow, massive data scale, dynamic data system, and various data types, and it has become increasingly apparent in improving innovation and entrepreneurship data analysis, trend prediction, and decision support. In this paper, the authors analyze the economic function data and entrepreneurship analysis based on machine learning. The support vector pair is very sensitive to the choice of parameters, and the parameters obtained using the genetic algorithm will greatly improve the accuracy of the model prediction. When using the genetic algorithm to find parameters, the cv method is used for verification. By applying big data technologies and platforms, it can provide strong data support to establish entrepreneurship education; integrate and integrate various types of innovation and entrepreneurship data, improve the quality of data collection.At the same time, through big data mining and analysis, accurately determine market demand hotspots and innovation and entrepreneurship trends, and promote scientific planning of innovation and entrepreneurship strategies. The research results show that this research model can be applied to actual projects in the future, and help investors better understand the changes of market economy.


Machine Learning plays a unique role in the world of stock market when it comes to the trend prediction. Machine learning library MLIB helps in determining the future values of stocks. With the help of this research one can find the ups and downs of stock market by providing a signal for the same and done by analyzing the previous stock data. This study is based on analysis of stock data from 2000 to 2009 which includes top fifty companies of various sectors from all over India. Six stock data indicators known as, Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index(RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, Williams % R, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Rate of Change applied on the nineteen years of stock data then results of these indicators are compiled and finally with the use of machine learning libraries like Numpy, Pandas, Matplotlib, Sklearn a random forest algorithm is applied on the compiled result to predict the stock movement , these libraries which splits the results into two sets training set and testing set which also boost up the result and gives you the better prediction.


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