A novel modification of ARX to generalize crude oil consumption model

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iwan Awaludin ◽  
Rosdiazli Ibrahim ◽  
K. S. Rama Rao
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Consumption Model

scholarly journals Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in China Using a Grey Prediction Model with an Optimal Fractional-Order Accumulating Operator

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiming Duan ◽  
Guang Rong Lei ◽  
Kailiang Shao
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Gamma Function ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Production And Consumption

Crude oil, which is an important part of energy consumption, can drive or hinder economic development based on its production and consumption. Reasonable predictions of crude oil consumption in China are meaningful. In this paper, we study the grey-extended SIGM model, which is directly estimated with differential equations. This model has high simulation and prediction accuracies and is one of the important models in grey theory. However, to achieve the desired modeling effect, the raw data must conform to a class ratio check. Unfortunately, the characteristics of the Chinese crude oil consumption data are not suitable for SIGM modeling. Therefore, in this paper, we use a least squares estimation to study the parametric operation properties of the SIGM model, and the gamma function is used to extend the integer order accumulation sequence to the fractional-order accumulation generation sequence. The first-order SIGM model is extended to the fractional-order FSIGM model. According to the particle swarm optimization (PSO) mechanism and the properties of the gamma function of the fractional-order cumulative generation operator, the optimal fractional-order particle swarm optimization algorithm of the FSIGM model is obtained. Finally, the data concerning China’s crude oil consumption from 2002 to 2014 are used as experimental data. The results are better than those of the classical grey GM, DGM, and NDGM models as well as those of the grey-extended SIGM model. At the same time, according to the FSIGM model, this paper predicts China’s crude oil consumption for 2015–2020.

How crude oil consumption impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa?

Energy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 74-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niaz Bashiri Behmiri ◽  
José R. Pires Manso
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Sub Saharan

Evidence of the Crude Oil Use Efficiency for the Four BRIC Countries: A Panel Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2561-2565
Author(s):  
Gao Lu Zou
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Common ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Consumption Efficiency

Crude Oil consumption for every unit of GDP output is a significant indicator for oil use efficiency. This study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between energy consumption efficiency across the four BRIC countries. We tested for panel unit root and panel cointegration. Oil consumption was of low efficiency in India. The cointegration suggests the common inefficiency of oil use. We may find out some common or similar determinants improving the oil use efficiency in the rapidly growing but heavy oil import-dependent countries.

scholarly journals An Agglomeration Benefits of Oil and Gas Firms: An Exploratory Study Through Industrial Cluster

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (No 1) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
Maryam Kalhoro ◽  
Dahshila Junejo ◽  
Sanobar Salman Shaikh
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Oil And Gas Resources ◽  
Oil And Gas Firms ◽  
Strong Existence

The research investigates the agglomeration pattern of seven national, international oil and gas extraction and production companies through an exploration of oil and gas cluster components and subcomponents.For this exploratory study, data is collected through primary sources via in-depth interviews from managers of national and international oil and gas MNCs working in Sindh, Pakistan and through secondary sources ofbusiness reports. The content analysis is adopted to analyze the data. Results of this study reveal that there is strong existence of exploration and production companies which results in agglomeration, however, other components of oil and gas cluster like refineries, marketing companies, supporting institutes, media and government poorly exist in Sindh province of Pakistan. Findings also highlight that the Sindh as a resource-rich region is still underdeveloped due to poor management of resources or because of the absence of ideal oil and gas cluster components and coordination among them in the region. _________________________Keywords:Agglomeration, Oil and Gas sector, cluster components, regional development Sindh, Pakistan.INTRODUCTIONPakistan is rich in oil and gas reserves that can sufficiently help to accelerate the economic growth of the country (Haque and Arif, 2007).According to Akbar (2005), Pakistan is the country which mainly depends on oil and gas resources for their energy consumption. Since the 1980s, the country's crude oil consumption is greater than the production. The average crude oil production in the year 2013 is 51.32, and its consumption is 285.38 barrels per day, respectively

THE AUSTRALIAN OIL INDUSTRY — TWO YEARS OF FLOOD BEFORE THE PERMANENT DROUGHT

1986 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
I. Story
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Timor Sea ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Exploration Activity

World oil intensities have undergone a fundamental change since 1976, when gross domestic product growth outstripped oil consumption for the first time. World oil demand has fallen each year since 1979 irrespective of economic conditions.International supply management is the only way of containing oil price falls. In the longer term, non-OPEC production will peak by the end of this decade because there have been no major developments since the mid-1970's. Prices are likely to rise again as supply from non-OPEC countries falls, allowing OPEC to reassert market control.Australia has achieved 100 per cent self-sufficiency in crude oil, but a substantial increase in exploration activity is required if a major fall in self-sufficiency is to be averted after Bass Strait peaks in 1987. Browse Basin (Timor Sea) disappointments indicate that while there will be good production from Jabiru and perhaps Challis, these will not replace the declining Mackerel, Halibut, and Kingfish fields in Bass Strait.The Cooper/Eromanga Basin, while highly prospective, will never produce the quantities needed to replace Bass Strait. Jackson's reserves are estimated at about 45 million barrels. By comparison, Mackerel and Halibut together will produce 58 million barrels in 1985-86 alone.If oil is not found the balance of payments will suffer badly. Each percentage point drop in self sufficiency will cost Australia $85 million or nearly 0.5 per cent of exports. If domestic production falls to 470 000 barrels per day by 1990, imports of crude oil will cost $2 billion in 1985 dollars (assuming flat oil prices). Expressed in another way, 6 per cent of Australia's exports will be required to pay for the incremental drop in self-sufficiency by 1990.In 1984-85 the Government took in $4.26 billion from the crude oil levy, almost exclusively from Bass Strait. In 1985-86 the Government will receive $4.7 billion. This represents 8.7 per cent of Government taxation revenue, and 8 per cent of total Government receipts. By 1990, the levy from Bass Strait will fall by 45 per cent (assuming a constant oil price). By 1995 the revenue will be 90 per cent less than 1985-86, posing a major budgetary funding problem.

The Effect of Cylinder Bore Distortion on Lube Oil Consumption and Blow-By

2013 ◽  
Vol 136 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Kagnici ◽  
Ozgen Akalin
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Piston Ring ◽  
Fourier Coefficients ◽  
Cylinder Block ◽  
Lubricating Oil ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Engine Operation ◽  
Consumption Model ◽  
Cylinder Bore ◽  
Cylinder Bore Distortion

It is well known that cylinder bore deformations during engine operation cause a number of problems in piston ring lubrication. Particularly, the deterioration of piston ring and cylinder bore conformability results in a significant increase in lubricating oil consumption. Therefore, measurement and identification of cylinder bore distortion has been an important subject for engine designers. In this study, an analytical lubricating oil consumption model was developed for a diesel engine. Piston stiffness was identified as an important input parameter for the oil consumption model, and the stiffness matrix of the piston was calculated using finite element simulations. In addition, finite element analysis was performed to determine the distorted cylinder block shape in engine running conditions. Pressure curves and loads obtained in actual engine tests were used in the analysis. The Fourier coefficients of a distorted cylinder bore was calculated which characterize the deformed bore orders. Using these Fourier coefficients, several distorted bore shapes were regenerated, including a straight bore and the effect of each order on total lube oil consumption was investigated by means of the oil consumption model.

REDUCING THE USAGE OF CRUDE OIL — WHAT CAN BE LEARNED FROM HIGHEST CRUDE CONSUMER COUNTRIES?

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 233-246
Author(s):  
BEZALEL GAVISH ◽  
ROYI GAVISH
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Conservation Policies ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Consumption Reduction ◽  
The Relationship

The production and consumption of crude oil became a major issue with the sharp increase in crude oil prices that took place during the last few months. We investigate the relationship between crude oil consumption and the GDP of the top crude oil consuming countries. The amount of GDP produced per barrel of crude oil varies significantly between different countries; the ratio is in the range of 2% to 10% of the GDP when the price of a barrel of crude oil is $100. The paper attempts to explain the high variability with the aim of learning from high GDP producers as to how they are able to generate a larger GDP per barrel of crude oil consumption. The paper also identifies a hysteresis effect in crude consumption reduction and illustrates how understanding it can lead to better production and conservation policies.

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