scholarly journals USA business cycle identification – a comparative study of chosen methods

2007 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 125-132
Author(s):  
Jitka Poměnková
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Kernel Smoothing ◽  
Nonparametric Method ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Business Cycle

Presented paper deals with comparison of chosen methods used for the business cycle identification. With respect to this aim nonparametric method (kernel smoothing) and Box-Jenkins methodology were used. This comparison is performed by application on economic activity in USA 1960/Q01–2007/Q01. The residuals are tested by Box-Pierce test. Identified trend is discussed with chosen historical events which affect business cycle in the USA.

From the Business Cycle to the Output Cycle: Predicting South African Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
C. Vermeulen ◽  
F. Joubert ◽  
A. Bosch ◽  
J. Rossouw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals Synthetic MMT: Old Line Keynesianism with an Expansionary Twist

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lance Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
National Accounting ◽  
Fiat Money ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

Expansionary macroeconomic policy with a strong redistributive component is an attractive proposition, most recently launched on the basis of Modern Monetary Theory or MMT. The Theory is a synthesis of familiar ideas, newly relevant but scarcely path-breaking. Its basics – Chartalist or fiat money, functional finance, and models based on consistent national accounting – come straight from Maynard Keynes, Abba Lerner, and Wynne Godley. Functional finance is the heart of fiscalist Keynesianism built upon automatic stabilizers for the business cycle. MMT’s job guarantee proposal is one more stabilizer which could be a modest helpful supplement to the system which exists. National accounting comparisons of a possible MMT package with the 2008 crash and the Trump tax cut are presented with emphasis on autonomous shifts in demand. The package could have problems with debt sustainability and external balance. Inflation is unlikely if wage repression in the USA is not reversed. But strong wage increases are presumably a goal of MMT.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Market Indicator

Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis J Berge ◽  
Óscar Jordá
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Dating

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)

Non-residential real estate and economic activity: the case of Greece

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Ilias Lekkos ◽  
Irini Staggel ◽  
Konstantinos Kefalas ◽  
Paraskevi Vlachou
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Significant Degree ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Business Cycle

Purpose – The aim of the paper is to discuss developments in non-residential real estate in Greece. Design/methodology/approach – Given the lack of existing literature, the authors start by discussing at length the data sources available, and analyzing the stylized facts of non-residential real estate activity in Greece. Finally, the authors examine the degree of covariation (using the index of concordance methodology) between non-residential real estate and the business cycle. Findings – The results indicate that the structure of non-residential sector is highly fragmented into various sub-categories and at the initial stages of its developments, it was strongly affected by the preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games. Finally, despite its small share of total GDP, non-residential real estate exhibits a significant degree of covariation with the business cycle. Practical implications – The extracted information may be a useful resource for those interested in the developments in non-residential real estate in Greece and the covariation of key variables with the business cycle. Originality/value – The paper constitutes a systematic research approach for the role of non-residential real estate in the Greek economic activity.

MONETARY REGIMES, MONEY SUPPLY, AND THE USA BUSINESS CYCLE SINCE 1959: IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY TODAY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Hylton Hollander ◽  
Lars Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Monetary Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Business Cycle

The monetary authority’s choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, does well to capture the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the USA. The results suggest that the evolution toward a stricter interest rate-targeting regime renders central bank balance sheet expansions ineffective. In the context of the 2007–2009 Great Recession, a more flexible interest rate-targeting regime would have led to a significant monetary expansion and more rapid economic recovery in the USA.

scholarly journals Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Thomas Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Economic Time ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Indicator

AbstractThis paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.

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