Predictive Model Selection for Forecasting Product Returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungmok Ma ◽  
Harrison M. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Product Returns ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Original Equipment Manufacturers

As awareness of environmental issues increases, the pressures from the public and policy makers have forced original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to consider remanufacturing as the key product design option. In order to make the remanufacturing operations more profitable, forecasting product returns is critical due to the uncertainty in quantity and timing. This paper proposes a predictive model selection algorithm to deal with the uncertainty by identifying a better predictive model. Unlike other major approaches in literature such as distributed lag models or DLMs, the predictive model selection algorithm focuses on the predictive power over new or future returns and extends the set of candidate models. The case study of reusable bottles shows that the proposed algorithm can find a better predictive model than the DLM.

Predictive Modeling of Product Returns for Remanufacturing

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungmok Ma ◽  
Harrison M. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Product Returns ◽  
Distributed Lag

As awareness of environmental issues increases, the pressures from the public and policy makers have forced OEMs to consider remanufacturing as the key product design option. In order to make the remanufacturing operations more profitable, forecasting product returns is critical with regards to the uncertainty in quantity and timing. This paper proposes a predictive model selection algorithm to deal with the uncertainty by identifying better predictive models. Unlike other major approaches in literature (distributed lag model or DLM), the predictive model selection algorithm focuses on the predictive power over new or future returns. The proposed algorithm extends the set of candidate models that should be considered: autoregressive integrated moving average or ARIMA (previous returns for future returns), DLM (previous sales for future returns), and mixed model (both previous sales and returns for future returns). The prediction performance measure from holdout samples is used to find a better model among them. The case study of reusable bottles shows that one of the candidate models, ARIMA, can predict better than the DLM depending on the relationships between returns and sales. The univariate model is widely unexplored due to the criticism that the model cannot utilize the previous sales. Another candidate model, mixed model, can provide a chance to find a better predictive model by combining the ARIMA and DLM. The case study also shows that the DLM in the predictive model selection algorithm can provide a good predictive performance when there are relatively strong and static relationships between returns and sales.

scholarly journals Fraud in overseas aid and the challenge of measurement

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Button ◽  
Chris Lewis ◽  
David Shepherd ◽  
Graham Brooks
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
International Development ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the challenges of measuring fraud in overseas aid. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on 21 semi-structured interviews with key persons working in the delivery of aid in both the public and voluntary sectors. It uses the UK Department for International Development as a case study to applying more accurate measures of fraud. Findings – This paper shows there are significant challenges to using fraud loss measurement to gauge fraud in overseas aid. However, it argues that, along with other types of measures, it could be used in areas of expenditure in overseas governments and charities to measure aid. Given the high risk of such aid to fraud, it argues helping to develop capacity to reduce aid, of which measuring the size of the problem is an important part; this could be considered as aid in its own right. Research limitations/implications – The researchers were not able to visit high-risk countries for fraud to examine in the local context views on the challenges of measuring fraud. Practical implications – The paper offers insights on the challenges to accurately measuring fraud in an overseas context, which will be useful to policy-makers in this context. Social implications – Given the importance of as much aid as possible reaching recipients, it offers an important contribution to helping to reduce losses in this important area. Originality/value – There has been very little consideration of how to measure fraud in the overseas aid context, with most effort aimed at corruption, which poses some of the same challenges, as well as some very different challenges.

A Place for Immigrants in the Ghetto: The Rise and Fall of the NaunynRitze Youth Centre

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhat Güney ◽  
Bülent Kabaş ◽  
Fatih Çömlekçi
Keyword(s):  
Immigrant Youth ◽  
Social Engineering ◽  
Youth Work ◽  
Artistic Development ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Youth Centre

In this work, we attempt to examine the role of strategies like arts sponsorship and culturalism in the solution of immigrant youth issues around a specific immigrant place. This is a case study that focuses on the NaunynRitze Youth Centre in Berlin-Kreuzberg, which was presented as a successful example by policy makers and the public in the 1990s when the footsteps of the crisis of multiculturalism had begun to be heard in Germany. Our research shows that the social engineering strategies shaped around a multikulti production base are not permanent or sustainable as long as these institutions are also given the responsibility of eliminating the cycle of crime and violence in addition to promote individual artistic development and subcultural entities. As long as political figures and the public opinion continue to generally see the immigrant youth as a danger to the secure and untarnished development of society, it does not appear possible for the multiculturalism and the immigrant youth work system to develop.

Citizen Relationship and Grievance Management System (CiR&GMS) through Multi-Channel Access for e-Government Services

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-67
Author(s):  
Velamala Ranga Rao
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Management System ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Single View ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Public ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
State And Local

Citizens are demanding greater access to interaction with government through their preferred channels or devices. The private sector uses different channels for their services, citizens except same level of services from the public sector. Therefore public sector needs to focus on creating multiple delivery channels (Traditional such as face to face, Telephone and Modern channels such as Website, E-mail, SMS), so that citizens can have ‘channels of choice', depending on specific needs, demands and preferences in order to increase citizens' participation and satisfaction. For this reason, the paper's purpose is 1) To understand multi-channel architecture, Integration, Management and its Strengths & Weakness 2) To develop a frame work for Citizen Relationship and Grievance Management System (CiR&GMS) for a single view 3) By applying proposed framework, To identify what types of channels are providing to access public services at National, State and Local level governments in India as a case study 4) To find out challenges and issues in implementation of multi-channel service delivery. The key findings of the case study are: a) There is no declining in providing traditional channels after introducing modern channels b) Many departments are offering mixed channels c) Usage of Mobile/SMS, Social media and Wi-Fi hotspots based channels are in initial stage d) t-Government channel is not yet initiated in any department e) Multi-channel integration and management is not yet initiated by many departments, these departments are managed channels as separate silos. The proposed framework may provide some guidance to the decision and policy makers in the public sector. However, such initiatives have many challenges to the developing countries like India.

Accomplishments and relevance of consumer protection organizations

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaldo L. Ryngelblum ◽  
Nadia Vianna
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Protection ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
The Media

Purpose Despite the special attention given to consumers by the business and academic literature, the dissatisfaction of Brazilian consumers has increased significantly. This manifest mainly through the initiation of complaints’ procedures against companies at Procon and other civil society consumer protection organizations (CPOs) that began to take over these issues complementarily to governmental action. This paper aims to examine the accomplishments and relevance of these organizations in protecting consumers and in preparation of related public policies. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative case study was conducted involving an in-depth collection of information about a restricted system, which included multiple sources. The information was obtained through semi-structured interviews conducted with CPOs’ executives and documents from the other participating organizations in the consumer protection field. Findings The CPOs have been positively evaluated by participants from the consumer protection field, for their effective action in the intermediation of complaints and in proposing laws and regulations on consumer protection. However, this picture is contrasted with the difficulties imposed by the practices of other field logics, such as legal procedures, media priorities and business interests that, however, collaborate in various occasions. Research limitations/implications CPOs’ relevance is more easily evaluated through social legitimation such as endorsements and declarations by the media, the public, by the CPOs’ own publicity and so on. As consumers can choose from alternative channels for redress, firms should be updated with the different procedural norms of each. Originality/value This paper draws a picture of the work developed by CPOs and indicates a possible assessment of their relevance in a scenario of logics complexity, which can be useful for policy makers.

scholarly journals Public Acceptability of Low Emission Zones: The Case of “Madrid Central”

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3251
Author(s):  
Javier Tarriño-Ortiz ◽  
Julio A. Soria-Lara ◽  
Juan Gómez ◽  
José Manuel Vassallo
Keyword(s):  
Political Ideology ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Social Controversy ◽  
Public Acceptability ◽  
Low Emission ◽  
Personal Attitudes ◽  
The Impact

Cities have intensified the adoption of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) to improve urban livability. Despite the high social controversy caused by LEZs in many cities, the scientific literature has paid little attention to study their public acceptability. This paper conducts a modelling approach exploring the impact of four groups of variables on the public acceptability of LEZs: (i) socio-economic and demographic characteristics; (ii) personal attitudes; (iii) travel-related variables; and (iv) perceptions and mobility habits linked to LEZs. The city of Madrid, Spain, is a case study of great interest because a LEZ called “Madrid Central” has been recently implemented. A total of 799 individual questionnaires were used to calibrate an ordered logit model. Results indicate that socio-economic and demographic variables are weakly related to the level of public acceptability towards the LEZ. On the contrary, the political ideology of individuals, their environmental awareness, their primary transport mode, the use of shared mobility systems, and the frequency of access to “Madrid Central” have a higher explanatory power. The results may be useful for policy-makers to understand the factors that increase the public acceptability of LEZs.

scholarly journals Public involvement in research about environmental change and health: A case study

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kath Maguire ◽  
Ruth Garside ◽  
Jo Poland ◽  
Lora E Fleming ◽  
Ian Alcock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Public Engagement ◽  
Health Research ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
The Public

Involving and engaging the public are crucial for effective prioritisation, dissemination and implementation of research about the complex interactions between environments and health. Involvement is also important to funders and policy makers who often see it as vital for building trust and justifying the investment of public money. In public health research, ‘the public’ can seem an amorphous target for researchers to engage with, and the short-term nature of research projects can be a challenge. Technocratic and pedagogical approaches have frequently met with resistance, so public involvement needs to be seen in the context of a history which includes contested truths, power inequalities and political activism. It is therefore vital for researchers and policy makers, as well as public contributors, to share best practice and to explore the challenges encountered in public involvement and engagement. This article presents a theoretically informed case study of the contributions made by the Health and Environment Public Engagement Group to the work of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health (HPRU-ECH). We describe how Health and Environment Public Engagement Group has provided researchers in the HPRU-ECH with a vehicle to support access to public views on multiple aspects of the research work across three workshops, discussion of ongoing research issues at meetings and supporting dissemination to local government partners, as well as public representation on the HPRU-ECH Advisory Board. We conclude that institutional support for standing public involvement groups can provide conduits for connecting public with policy makers and academic institutions. This can enable public involvement and engagement, which would be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve in individual short-term and unconnected research projects.

The Rise and Fall of Tariq Ramadan in the Netherlands: The Interplay of Dutch Politics, Media, and Academia

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annemarie van Sandwijk
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Dutch Politics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Muslim Intellectuals ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
The University

In 2007, the Municipality of Rotterdam appointed Tariq Ramadan as an Integration Adviser. In addition to this position, Ramadan was appointed as a Visiting Professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam. This article provides a thorough analysis of Ramadan’s appointment, positions in, and premature dismissal from Rotterdam in the years 2007–2009. It will examine the interrelated roles of the main actors involved—i.e. the Municipality, the media, and the University. It also takes the Ramadan affair in the Netherlands as an empirical case study to analyse how policy makers deal with the idea of religion as a potential source of social cohesion in society. In addition, it analyses the Ramadan affair in the context of the emergence of Western-based Muslim intellectuals in the public sphere. Finally, it considers the outcome of Ramadan’s legal proceedings against both the Municipality and the University, which clearly exposes the tensions between political activism and scholarship.

scholarly journals Sistem Kenaikan Pangkat dan Kepuasan Kerja : Satu Kajian Kes Ke atas Perkhidmatan Awam Persekutuan Di Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Chin ◽  
Syed Azizi Wafa Syed Khalid Wafa ◽  
Ramraini Ali Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Public Servants ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Promotion System ◽  
The Relationship

This research is a case study exploring the relationship between the promotion system and job satisfaction among federal civil servants in federal departments and agencies in Malaysia. The samples involved in this study are government officers serving in federal departments and agencies in the state of Sabah, Malaysia.  A quantitative method was used in this study. A total of 700 questionnaires were distributed among federal civil servants in grades 41 to grades 54. A total of 420 questionnaires were returned but after screening only 380 questionnaires were found useable and analysed in the study. Questionnaires were distributed to respondents based on purposive sampling methods. A significant positive relationship was found between the promotion system and job satisfaction. This study will contribute knowledge through the empirical data obtained as well as gaining a better understanding of the relationship between the promotion system and the level of job satisfaction among federal public servants in Malaysia. From a practical perspective, the findings of this study can be used by policy makers, managers and researchers who are interested in improving the policy of human resource management within the public sector in Malaysia.

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