Enbridge Cost and Schedule Contingency Assessments

Author(s):  
Matthew Schoenhardt ◽  
Vachel Pardais ◽  
Cheryl Fortin ◽  
Brent Kitson ◽  
Jay Hanzel

All capital projects have an element of risk and uncertainty. In today’s business environment this requires more than just simply adding 10 percent contingency to the cost estimate to cover off project unknowns. Before sanctioning a project for hundreds of millions of dollars, Board of Directors need to know what possible cost and schedule outcomes exist in order to safe-guard shareholders’ investments. Contingency assessments must be: • Risk-based • Project Specific • Repeatable • Defendable • Cost effective Six years ago, Enbridge grappled with these issues and realized it needed to adopt a new method of assessing both cost and schedule contingencies. After evaluating options, Enbridge set upon developing an in-house parametric modeling solution for its contingency assessment needs. This paper will: • Identify various options for assessing contingency • Review the Enbridge process • Demonstrate the value of a simplified risk register • Identify required data inputs • Illustrate calibration and accuracy of assessments • Discuss business advantages of parametric modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Nurul Nazlia Jamil ◽  
Nathasa Mazna Ramli ◽  
Ainulashikin Marzuki ◽  
Nurul Nadiah Ahmad

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have very significant contribution to economic growth of the countries as more than 95% of companies worldwide and employment are represented by the SMEs industries. Therefore, in increasing the harmonization of reporting standard of SMEs, Malaysia is moving aggressively towards the efforts by introducing the Malaysian Private Entity Reporting Standard (MPERS) for SMEs starting from 1st January 2016 onwards. MPERS is seen to bring opportunities to the business as it is adoption of international standard that has been designed to fits the local needs and the customization to the Malaysian business environment could ensure comparability of the locals with the international business. Hence, this research attempt to 1) examine the perceptions of accounting practitioners on MPERS implementation and 2) identify the problems encountered in applying MPERS in SMEs. This study provides pioneering evidence on the problems of the practitioners encountered when applying the MPERS through the 176 questionnaires survey that have been distributed to the accounting practitioners that involve with MPERS implementation for SMEs in Malaysia. The insights and perceptions obtained highlighting new dimensions to the inherent problem such as issues of consistency and guidance in applying the MPERS with the cost-effective manner. Thus, the issues of differences in judgements among the practitioners become a phenomenon in relation to the application of MPERS for SMEs. The findings of this study are of interest to standard setters and SMEs stakeholders in Malaysia and other countries.


Author(s):  
Ronald S. Farrell ◽  
Timothy W. Simpson

Previously, we introduced a new method for improving commonality in a highly customized, low volume product line using component product platforms. The method provides a bottom-up platform approach to redesign family members originally developed one-at-a-time to meet specific customer requirements. In this paper, we extend the method with an Activity-Based Costing (ABC) model to specifically capture the manufacturing costs in the product line, including the cost associated with implementing a platform strategy. The valve yoke example is revisited in this paper, the customized ABC model is defined, two design strategy alternatives are addressed, and the new method is used to determine which alternative is better at resolving the tradeoff between commonality, total cost, and product performance. The proposed method shows promise for creating a product platform portfolio from a set of candidate component platforms that is most cost-effective within an existing product line. The proposed method allows for arbitrary leveraging as it does not rely solely on the traditional vertical, horizontal, or beachhead strategies advocated for the market segmentation grid, and this is especially beneficial when applied to an existing product line that was develop one-at-a-time time such that artifact designs are inconsistent from one to another.


Author(s):  
Ovidiu Cretu ◽  
Vlad Cretu ◽  
Terry Berends ◽  
Robert Stewart

The project cost and schedule estimate is a very subtle effort that needs to be repeated throughout the entire project’s life. The relatively new method of including risk events into the project cost estimate makes this effort more sensitive to subtleness. The authors have noticed during their work with other professionals that it is a tendency to make the processes of cost risk analysis (Risk Based Estimate (RBE)) more complicated than they should be. The authors call this tendency as “professional sophistication” when the RBE includes too many activities, too many uncertainties, and too many risk events. The “professional sophistication” usually is detrimental to the entire cost and schedule risk analysis and it constitutes a significant source of the analysis’ failure. The paper presents few cases when so called “professional sophistication” led to the initial analysis failure and if not caught in time to the project cost and schedule misrepresentation. The paper presents the reasons why the “Keep It Simple Smarty (KISS)” principle is critical for a robust and reliable cost and schedule risk analysis. The papers evaluate the impact of having too many variables included into RBE. It makes recommendation about the optimum number of variable that may be incorporated in the cost risk analysis. The ultimate recommendation is about being sure that the Risk Based Estimate includes only the uncertainties or risk events that may change significant the project cost or schedule.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241361
Author(s):  
Xavier Armoiry ◽  
Jean-François Obadia ◽  
Peter Auguste ◽  
Martin Connock

Purpose Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs), Mitra-Fr and Coapt, evaluating the benefit of percutaneous repair (PR) for heart failure (HF) patients with severe mitral regurgitation, have led to conflicting results. We aimed to evaluate the impact of these trial results on the cost-effectiveness of PR using effectiveness inputs from the two RCTs. Methods We developed a time varying Markov type model with three mutually exclusive health states: alive without HF hospitalisation, alive with HF hospitalisation, and dead. Clinically plausible extrapolations beyond observed data were obtained by developing parametric modelling for overall survival and HF hospitalisations using published data from each trial. We adopted the perspective of the French Health System and used a 30-year time horizon. Results were expressed as € / quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained using utility inputs from literature. Findings Results are presented using treatment efficacy measures from Mitra-F and Coapt trials respectively. With the Mitra-Fr data, after annual discounting, the base case model generated an incremental 0.00387 QALY at a cost of €25,010, yielding an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €6,467,032 / QALY. The model was sensitive to changes made to model inputs. There was no potential of PR being cost-effective. With the Coapt data, the model generated 1.19 QALY gain at a cost of €26,130 yielding an ICER of €21,918 / QALY and at a threshold of >€50,000/QALY PR had a probability of 1 of being cost-effective. Implications Cost effectiveness results were conflicting; reconciling differences between trials is a priority and could promote optimal cost effectiveness analyses and resource allocation.


Author(s):  
J. Perry ◽  
M. Perl

During the firing of guns, the barrel undergoes two major damaging processes: wear of its inner surface, and internal cracking. Barrel’s are condemned based either on the increase of their internal diameter due to wear, or the severity of their internal cracking. The cost of replacing such a damaged gun barrel runs in the tenth of thousand of US$. Therefore, cost effective methods are sought for restoring such gun barrels. In the present analysis a new method is proposed for refurbishing vintage gun barrels by machining their inner damaged layer and replacing it by an intact, autofrettaged, shrink-fit liner that will restore the barrel to its original performance. The preliminary results demonstrate the ability of this process to mend such barrels, bringing them back to their initial Safe Maximum Pressure (SMP) and their intact conditions, rather than condemning them. Furthermore, such an alternative seems to be cost effective.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3555-3555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carin A. Uyl-de Groot ◽  
Rachel Ramsden ◽  
Janneke Boersma ◽  
Sonja Zweegman ◽  
Sujith Dhanasiri

Abstract Background: Standard of care for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) who are ≤ 70 years of age and who are fit is induction therapy followed by high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). However, this approach is not curative, and residual disease leads to disease relapse. Sustaining response and postponing relapse following ASCT is an important clinical goal, as early progression is associated with an increased risk of death. Lenalidomide (LEN) maintenance therapy has emerged as an important standard of care post-ASCT. Several clinical studies have shown that patients who received LEN maintenance therapy after ASCT had significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in comparison with those who did not receive maintenance therapy. Other studies have indicated that active LEN maintenance treatment does not impair quality of life (Tay J, et al. Blood. 2017;130:abstract 2150). A recent EU5 cost-impact analysis suggested that LEN maintenance is potentially cost saving on direct medical costs by 24% over a 5-year period (Jackson G, et al. Blood. 2017;130:abstract 3405). To date, no study has specifically assessed the cost-effectiveness of LEN as maintenance treatment. Aims: To assess the cost-effectiveness of LEN treatment versus no maintenance treatment in transplant-eligible NDMM patients from a Dutch healthcare service perspective. Methods: A partitioned survival model structure was selected to provide a good fit to the supporting efficacy and safety data. The model was structured around 3 primary health states relevant to an NDMM patient's treatment trajectory: pre-progression state (encompassing on- and off-treatment periods), post-progression state (encompassing periods just prior to second-line treatment, on second-line treatment, and post-second-line treatment), and death. Efficacy and safety data were taken from a pooled meta-analysis of the CALGB 100104, GIMEMA RV-MM-PI-209, and IFM 2005-02 studies. Parametric models were used to estimate long-term survival. Utility data were applied from a real-world setting captured in the Connect® MM Disease Registry, which was used to calculate the progression-free (LEN), progression-free (no treatment), progressive disease (treatment-free), and progressive disease (second-line treatment) utilities. A 21 out of 28-day cycles dosing regimen for LEN was applied as recommended in the Dutch HOVON clinical guidelines. Costs (2016) and subsequent therapy data were derived from published literature and sources appropriate for the Dutch market. All drug costs are presented at list price. Healthcare resource utilization was informed from a EU5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) real-world study (Ashcroft J, et al. Int J Hematol Oncol. 2018;Epub ahead of print). The total costs, life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon. Multiple scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the model results to key assumptions and data inputs. Results: The cost-effectiveness model predicted a QALY gain of 2.26 and a LYG of 2.79 for LEN in the base case analysis (Table). First-line drug costs of LEN contributed to an increase of EUR 147,707 in total costs versus no maintenance treatment. However, this was partially offset by savings of EUR 77,462 in subsequent treatment costs. LEN was shown to represent a cost-effective use of resources when compared with the Dutch willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold for NDMM of EUR 50,000/QALY. Scenario analyses showed LEN remained cost-effective in settings representative of Dutch clinical practice. For instance, use of only the Dutch recommended dose (10 mg with dose reductions if needed) of LEN for NDMM gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of EUR 30,709. Scenario ICERs evaluating the key assumptions, aligning the subsequent therapy data as per in-trial use (EUR 49,059) and up to 83.9% of patients receiving 28 out of 28-day dosing, also remained below the WTP threshold. Conclusions: Introducing LEN as a maintenance therapy post-ASCT delays progression, improves survival, and reduces subsequent treatment-line costs. The use of LEN post-ASCT is cost-effective in comparison with no maintenance therapy in the Netherlands. Disclosures Uyl-de Groot: Merck: Research Funding; Janssen- Cilag: Research Funding; Gilead: Research Funding; Genzyme: Research Funding; Celgene Corp.: Research Funding; Boehringer Ingelheim: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; AstraZeneca: Research Funding; Astellas: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Roche: Research Funding; Sanofi: Research Funding. Ramsden:Celgene Corp.: Consultancy; BresMed: Employment. Boersma:Celgene BV: Employment, Equity Ownership. Zweegman:Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Celgene Corp.: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Dhanasiri:Celgene International: Employment, Equity Ownership.


Author(s):  
Xavier Armoiry ◽  
Peter Auguste ◽  
Jean-François Obadia ◽  
Daniel Grinberg ◽  
Martin Connock

IntroductionExtrapolation methods are commonly used to model the cost-effectiveness of health technologies beyond observed data. Reassessing cost-effectiveness estimates using updated clinical trial data has the potential to reduce uncertainty and optimize decision-making. We present a case study based on percutaneous repair (PR) with the Mitraclip system, a technology to treat severe secondary mitral regurgitation (MR). For the study purpose, we considered the COAPT trial that evaluated the effectiveness of adding PR to medical treatment versus medical treatment alone.MethodsWe developed a time-varying Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of PR. Clinical inputs were based on reconstructed individual patient data from the COAPT trial results reported at 2 years, and at 3 years.We developed parametric modeling for overall survival (OS) and heart failure hospitalizations (HFH) to obtain clinically plausible extrapolations beyond observed data. We adopted the French perspective and used a 30-year time horizon. We expressed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).ResultsBased on 2 year-data, preferred parametric models for OS and HFH were exponential and log-logistic respectively, yielding an ICER of EUR21,918/QALY and >0.5 probability of PR being cost-effective (EUR50,000/QALY threshold).Updated analyses at 3 years showed a change of OS trajectory for PR that justified the use of piecewise modelling, yielding an updated ICER that went up to EUR77,904/QALY (base-case), and to a minimum of EUR58,175/QALY (scenario analysis). Using data at 3 years, PR had <0.5 probability of being cost-effective.ConclusionsIn this case study, the availability of updated survival analyses of the main trial is likely to have some impact on decision-making and/or pricing discussion as part of health-technology assessment (HTA). We aim to provide further updated analyses as 4 years results of the COAPT study become available.More broadly, original technology appraisals are frequently undertaken when mid/long-term follow-up trial data may be lacking. Our example suggests the need for continuous HTA review as new clinical data are released.


Author(s):  
James F. Mancuso

IBM PC compatible computers are widely used in microscopy for applications ranging from control to image acquisition and analysis. The choice of IBM-PC based systems over competing computer platforms can be based on technical merit alone or on a number of factors relating to economics, availability of peripherals, management dictum, or simple personal preference.IBM-PC got a strong “head start” by first dominating clerical, document processing and financial applications. The use of these computers spilled into the laboratory where the DOS based IBM-PC replaced mini-computers. Compared to minicomputer, the PC provided a more for cost-effective platform for applications in numerical analysis, engineering and design, instrument control, image acquisition and image processing. In addition, the sitewide use of a common PC platform could reduce the cost of training and support services relative to cases where many different computer platforms were used. This could be especially true for the microscopists who must use computers in both the laboratory and the office.


Phlebologie ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 36 (06) ◽  
pp. 309-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Schulz ◽  
M. Jünger ◽  
M. Hahn

Summary Objective: The goal of the study was to assess the effectiveness and patient tolerability of single-session, sonographically guided, transcatheter foam sclerotherapy and to evaluate its economic impact. Patients, methods: We treated 20 patients with a total of 22 varicoses of the great saphenous vein (GSV) in Hach stage III-IV, clinical stage C2-C5 and a mean GSV diameter of 9 mm (range: 7 to 13 mm). We used 10 ml 3% Aethoxysklerol®. Additional varicoses of the auxiliary veins of the GSV were sclerosed immediately afterwards. Results: The occlusion rate in the treated GSVs was 100% one week after therapy as demonstrated with duplex sonography. The cost of the procedure was 207.91 E including follow-up visit, with an average loss of working time of 0.6 days. After one year one patient showed clinical signs of recurrent varicosis in the GSV; duplex sonography showed reflux in the region of the saphenofemoral junction in a total of seven patients (32% of the treated GSVs). Conclusion: Transcatheter foam sclerotherapy of the GSV is a cost-effective, safe method of treating varicoses of GSV and broadens the spectrum of therapeutic options. Relapses can be re-treated inexpensively with sclerotherapy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 260-266
Author(s):  
Haru Purnomo Ipung ◽  
Amin Soetomo

This research proposed a model to assist the design of the associated data architecture and data analytic to support talent forecast in the current accelerating changes in economy, industry and business change due to the accelerating pace of technological change. The emerging and re-emerging economy model were available, such as Industrial revolution 4.0, platform economy, sharing economy and token economy. Those were driven by new business model and technology innovation. An increase capability of technology to automate more jobs will cause a shift in talent pool and workforce. New business model emerge as the availabilityand the cost effective emerging technology, and as a result of emerging or re-emerging economic models. Both, new business model and technology innovation, create new jobs and works that have not been existed decades ago. The future workers will be faced by jobs that may not exist today. A dynamics model of inter-correlation of economy, industry, business model and talent forecast were proposed. A collection of literature review were conducted to initially validate the model.


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