Prediction of Track Geometry Status Based on Gray Forecast-Kalman Filter Analysis

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaolong Jia ◽  
Weixiang Xu ◽  
Hanning Wang
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Recursive Algorithm ◽  
Status Change ◽  
Track Geometry ◽  
Real Change ◽  
The Status ◽  
Change Tendency ◽  
Filter Analysis ◽  
Track Status

Excellent condition of track geometry status is the foundation to ensure train travel security. The detection data of track inspection car contains many valuable features of the track status. The technique of gray forecast and Kalman filtering can be used to investigate the problem and predict the status change of the track geometry. In this paper, gray forecast is used in qualitative analysis of track geometry status changes, and we predict the development of track geometry status change using the Kalman filter prediction model and specific recursive algorithm, established prediction model of the track geometry to make an emulation experiment to analyze the data that track inspection car has detected, and predict changing trends of track geometry the state. Experiment results show that the application model of improved Kalman filter to predict the track geometry status changes gets a higher accuracy, and it can reflect the real change tendency of the track status.

scholarly journals Developing an Enhanced Short-Range Railroad Track Condition Prediction Model for Optimal Maintenance Scheduling

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Xu ◽  
Chuanjun Jia ◽  
Ye Li ◽  
Quanxin Sun ◽  
Rengkui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Maintenance Scheduling ◽  
Railroad Track ◽  
Track Geometry ◽  
Track Maintenance ◽  
Track Condition ◽  
Optimal Maintenance ◽  
Process Work

As railroad infrastructure becomes older and older and rail transportation is developing towards higher speed and heavier axle, the risk to safe rail transport and the expenses for railroad maintenance are increasing. The railroad infrastructure deterioration (prediction) model is vital to reducing the risk and the expenses. A short-range track condition prediction method was developed in our previous research on railroad track deterioration analysis. It is intended to provide track maintenance managers with two or three months of track condition in advance to schedule track maintenance activities more smartly. Recent comparison analyses on track geometrical exceptions calculated from track condition measured with track geometry cars and those predicted by the method showed that the method fails to provide reliable condition for some analysis sections. This paper presented the enhancement to the method. One year of track geometry data for the Jiulong-Beijing railroad from track geometry cars was used to conduct error analyses and comparison analyses. Analysis results imply that the enhanced model is robust to make reliable predictions. Our in-process work on applying those predicted conditions for optimal track maintenance scheduling is discussed in brief as well.

Multi-day flow forecasting using the Kalman filter

1991 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray A. Fitch ◽  
Edward A. McBean
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Linear Prediction ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
System Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Optimal Forecasting ◽  
Linear Prediction Model

A model is developed for the prediction of river flows resulting from combined snowmelt and precipitation. The model employs a Kalman filter to reflect uncertainty both in the measured data and in the system model parameters. The forecasting algorithm is used to develop multi-day forecasts for the Sturgeon River, Ontario. The algorithm is shown to develop good 1-day and 2-day ahead forecasts, but the linear prediction model is found inadequate for longer-term forecasts. Good initial parameter estimates are shown to be essential for optimal forecasting performance. Key words: Kalman filter, streamflow forecast, multi-day, streamflow, Sturgeon River, MISP algorithm.

Error Estimate for the Ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis Step

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1275-1287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Kovalenko ◽  
Trond Mannseth ◽  
Geir Nævdal
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Error Estimate ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Filter Analysis

scholarly journals The Design and Implementation of an Inertial GNSS Odometer Integrated Navigation System Based on a Federated Kalman Filter for High-Speed Railway Track Inspection

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5244
Author(s):  
Xinchun Zhang ◽  
Ximin Cui ◽  
Bo Huang
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Navigation System ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Measurement Accuracy ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Integrated Navigation ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Track Geometry ◽  
Integrated Navigation System

The detection of track geometry parameters is essential for the safety of high-speed railway operation. To improve the accuracy and efficiency of the state detector of track geometry parameters, in this study we propose an inertial GNSS odometer integrated navigation system based on the federated Kalman, and a corresponding inertial track measurement system was also developed. This paper systematically introduces the construction process for the Kalman filter and data smoothing algorithm based on forward filtering and reverse smoothing. The engineering results show that the measurement accuracy of the track geometry parameters was better than 0.2 mm, and the detection speed was about 3 km/h. Thus, compared with the traditional Kalman filter method, the proposed design improved the measurement accuracy and met the requirements for the detection of geometric parameters of high-speed railway tracks.

scholarly journals Tracking—A

2021 ◽  
pp. 163-192
Author(s):  
Jean Walrand
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Recursive Algorithm ◽  
Nonlinear Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Linear Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Estimate ◽  
Related Notion

AbstractThis chapter explains how to estimate an unobserved random variable or vector from available observations. This problem arises in many examples, as illustrated in Sect. 9.1. The basic problem is defined in Sect. 9.2. One commonly used approach is the linear least squares estimate explained in Sect. 9.3. A related notion is the linear regression covered in Sect. 9.4. Section 9.5 comments on the problem of overfitting. Sections 9.6 and 9.7 explain the minimum means squares estimate that may be a nonlinear function of the observations and the remarkable fact that it is linear for jointly Gaussian random variables. Section 9.8 is devoted to the Kalman filter, which is a recursive algorithm for calculating the linear least squares estimate of the state of a system given previous observations.

The Dangerous Rock Mass Deformation Analysis with Application of Kalman Filter Method Based on Material Properties and AR Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 738 ◽  
pp. 109-112
Author(s):  
Fu Min Lu ◽  
Ting Yao Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Rock Mass ◽  
Ar Model ◽  
Deformation Analysis ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
The Status ◽  
Rock Mass Deformation ◽  
Kalman Filter Method ◽  
Mass Deformation ◽  
Dangerous Rock Mass

Considering the material property of the rock to the dangerous rock mass,the paper Looks the model parameter of AR( 1) model as the status vector, and uses Kalman filter method to analysis the deformation of the dangerous rock mass. The result shows that the method can improve the accuracy of fitting and forecasting of the model.

scholarly journals Improving Accuracy of the Kalman Filter Algorithm in Dynamic Conditions Using ANN-Based Learning Module

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israr Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Fayaz ◽  
DoHyeun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Dynamic Conditions ◽  
Learning Module ◽  
Prediction Algorithms ◽  
Kalman Filter Algorithm

Prediction algorithms enable computers to learn from historical data in order to make accurate decisions about an uncertain future to maximize expected benefit or avoid potential loss. Conventional prediction algorithms are usually based on a trained model, which is learned from historical data. However, the problem with such prediction algorithms is their inability to adapt to dynamic scenarios and changing conditions. This paper presents a novel learning to prediction model to improve the performance of prediction algorithms under dynamic conditions. In the proposed model, a learning module is attached to the prediction algorithm, which acts as a supervisor to monitor and improve the performance of the prediction algorithm continuously by analyzing its output and considering external factors that may have an influence on its performance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed learning to prediction model, we have developed the artificial neural network (ANN)-based learning module to improve the prediction accuracy of the Kalman filter algorithm as a case study. For experimental analysis, we consider a scenario where the Kalman filter algorithm is used to predict actual temperature from noisy sensor readings. the Kalman filter algorithm uses fixed process error covariance R, which is not suitable for dynamic situations where the error in sensor readings varies due to some external factors. In this study, we assume variable error in temperature sensor readings due to the changing humidity level. We have developed a learning module based on ANN to estimate the amount of error in current readings and to update R in the Kalman filter accordingly. Through experiments, we observed that the Kalman filter with the learning module performed better (4.41%–11.19%) than the conventional Kalman filter algorithm in terms of the root mean squared error metric.

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