Modeling and Validation of Hydro Cascade Operation Considering Price Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxime Libsig ◽  
Elena Raycheva ◽  
Jared B. Garrison ◽  
Gabriela Hug
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Perfect Knowledge ◽  
System Operator ◽  
Price Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Most studies involving the use of hydropower in an electric power system tend to consider the point of view of the system operator even though under liberalized markets in Europe, the operation of hydro units is set by the owner to maximize their profits. Such studies also often neglect uncertainties related to hydropower operation and instead assume perfect knowledge of the system conditions over the simulation horizon. This paper presents a methodology to overcome the aforementioned limitations. We optimize the operational choices of a hydropower cascade owner with multiple linked hydro assets and the ability to participate in several energy and reserve markets while also accounting for the impact of market price uncertainties on the owner’s operating decisions. The versatile optimization model created includes a detailed representation of any selected hydro cascade’s topology, constraints to reflect the machinery characteristics, and a rolling horizon approach to account for the price uncertainties in the daily operating schedule. The model is first validated using historical data for a hydro cascade in Switzerland and a perfect-knowledge approach. Next, price uncertainty is added to improve the historical simulation results and find a trade-off between accuracy and computational time.

scholarly journals Price risk exposure of Australian Merinos – is it in the bloodline?

2014 ◽  
Vol 54 (9) ◽  
pp. 1317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Behrendt
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Fibre Diameter ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Sheep Meat ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Australian Merino

Sheep producers and their advisors utilise Australian Merino bloodline trial data to guide future sheep breeding objectives and ram selection. To adequately assess the economic outcomes from different bloodlines in the decision making process, there is a need to consider the impact of wool and sheep meat price risk. Using a steady-state wether flock model that accounts for the lifetime productivity of 268 reported Merino bloodlines and stochastic dependency in weekly wool and sheep meat prices from 28 June 2005 to 10 November 2011, gross incomes per dry sheep equivalent (GI/DSE) were calculated for a weekly time step. The analysis found that across all bloodlines and market price scenarios, GI/DSE ranged between AU$13.92 and AU$67.83, with an overall mean of AU$32.60. The individual means of bloodlines across the time series ranged from AU$37.46 to AU$25.19 GI/DSE. The coefficient of variation, used as the measure of relative risk for each bloodline, ranged from 0.24 to 0.30 with a mean of 0.25. The analysis showed that a bloodlines exposure to price risk has a curvilinear relationship to fibre diameter and fleece weight. The results from a risk-reward point of view indicate that the majority of Australian Merino bloodlines are risk-inefficient. This suggests Australian sheep producers have a significant opportunity to increase net returns and reduce price risk exposure by identifying and switching to more risk-efficient bloodlines.

scholarly journals A Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model under Stochastic Market Price

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Huirong Zhang ◽  
Zhenyu Zhang ◽  
Jiaping Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Inventory Control ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Newsvendor Model ◽  
Inventory Cost ◽  
Survival And Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Market

The optimal inventory control is closely related to an enterprise’s operational efficiency, survival, and development. Market price uncertainty is introduced into the newsvendor model and the uncertainty’s impact on the firm's optimal stocking quantity is discussed. The results show that the impact of stochastic market price on the optimal stocking quantity under a given condition mainly depends on the magnitude of inventory cost. When the inventory cost is low, the market price’s uncertainty leads the firm to increase the stocking quantity. In contrast, when the inventory cost is high, market price uncertainty leads the firm to decrease inventory. Besides, the risk-averse behaviour leads the firm to reduce its stocking quantity.

scholarly journals Proposal of a New Procurement Strategy of Frequency Control Reserves in Power Systems: The Italian Case in the European Framework

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 6105
Author(s):  
Enrico Maria Carlini ◽  
Mauro Caprabianca ◽  
Maria Carmen Falvo ◽  
Sara Perfetti ◽  
Luca Luzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Frequency Control ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Market Price ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Price Signals ◽  
System Operator ◽  
The Impact

Over the last few years, a strong penetration of Intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (IRES) has been in progress in the Italian power system. In this new framework, the dispatching activity must improve its efficiency to ensure adequacy and security of the national electricity system. European market integration initiatives are making this goal achievable, provided that the coherency of market price signals and reserve procurement at the European level are guaranteed. For this reason, the Italian Transmission System Operator (TSO), Terna, started to investigate the opportunity to align the Italian reserve-procurement approach to the one adopted in most European countries, procuring Replacement Reserve (RR) in dedicated auctions held in advance of the day-ahead market. The aim of this new methodology is to improve the coherency of price signals arising from the integrated European day-ahead market, anticipating potential scarcity conditions, thus helping to keep adequacy standards high. This paper describes the characteristics of a possible new reserve-procurement model based on the European benchmark. Comparative simulations are presented, estimating the impact of the new approach in terms of outcomes and costs of both the energy and ancillary services markets in Italy. The results of this study suggest activation of the reserve auction only in the cases in which the TSO expects a potential risk of simultaneous reserve scarcity across European countries.

scholarly journals Streaming Electrification of Nycodiel 1255 Synthetic Ester and Trafo EN Mineral Oil Mixtures by Using Rotating Disc Method

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6159
Author(s):  
Maciej Zdanowski
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Diffusion ◽  
Mineral Oil ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Power Transformers ◽  
Main Element ◽  
Insulation System ◽  
Rotating Disc ◽  
Synthetic Ester ◽  
The Impact

Power transformers are the main element of an electric power system. The service life of these devices depends to a large extent on the technical condition of their insulation system. Replacing mineral oils with natural or synthetic ester (retrofilling process) may increase the efficiency and operational safety of transformers, and also limit their adverse environmental impact. It is technically unfeasible to completely remove mineral oil from a transformer. Its small residues form a mixture with fluid ester, with different physicochemical and electric properties. Streaming electrification is one of the phenomena which, under unfavorable conditions, may damage the insulation system of a forced oil cooled transformer. It is necessary to run prophylactic tests for the ECT (electrostatic charging tendency) of insulating liquid mixtures from the point of view of transformer retrofilling, which is being used more often than before. The article presents the results of studies on selected physicochemical, and electrical properties, and the ECT of mixtures of fresh and aged Trafo EN mineral oil with Nycodiel 1255 synthetic ester. In this regard, the density, the kinematic viscosity, the conductivity, and the relative dielectric constant were measured. The molecular diffusion coefficient was determined using Adamczewski’s empirical dependency. The streaming electrification was tested in a rotating disc system. The impact of the rotation time, the diameter, and the disc’s rotation speed on the amount of the electrification current generated were analyzed. In addition, the co-relation between the electrification current and the composition of the mixture was determined using fresh and aged mineral oil. On the basis of the electrification model, the volume density of the qw charge was calculated, which is a parameter defining the ECT of insulating liquids. Based on the results, it was concluded that the synthetic ester is characterized by a higher susceptibility to electrification than the mineral oil. However, combining synthetic ester with a small amount (up to 20%) of fresh or aged mineral oil significantly reduces its ECT, which is beneficial from the point of view of retrofilling power transformers.

scholarly journals Examining the Effects of Domestic versus Global Prices Uncertainty on Sectoral Price Inflation in Malaysia

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 99-122
Author(s):  
Eng Woo Chiew ◽  
Siok Kun Sek
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Consumer Preference ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Price Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact

Price stability is one of the main policy objectives that is targeted by policymakers in many countries. Price uncertainty occurs due to the changes in market structure and consumer preference and expectation, which may affect price stability. In this study, the researchers aimed to examine the effects of price uncertainty of consumer price disaggregation in Malaysian sectors. To be specific, the researchers were seeking to discover on how domestic and global commodity prices can affect sectoral Consumer Price Index (CPI) on price inflation in Malaysia and most importantly, whether the effect is different for economic sectors in Malaysia. In addition, the effects of other factors (i.e., internal and external factors) on Malaysian sectoral CPI inflation were also studied. The threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) model was used to generate the price uncertainties. For the purpose of analysis, the threshold regression approach was applied based on time series of each single sector, followed by a combination of panel data of all sectors. The results differed across sectors, revealing that the impact of price uncertainties was determined by the sensitivity of each sector towards the price uncertainties. The effect of price increase is larger than the effect of price decrease. Price fluctuations were obvious in sectors that were dependent on consumer price or commodity price. Exchange rate and oil price inflation had also greatly influenced the CPI inflation.

The Geosciences Applied to Lunar Exploration

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green
Keyword(s):  
Lunar Surface ◽  
Probable Mechanism ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Lunar Exploration ◽  
Geological Model ◽  
Apply Geophysics ◽  
Surface Features ◽  
The Impact

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.

МАРКЕТИНГОВІ АСПЕКТИ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ЛІТЕРАТУРНИХ КОНКУРСІВ ТА ПРЕМІЙ

2020 ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
O. Bondar
Keyword(s):  
Publishing House ◽  
Target Audience ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Literary Field ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
The Media ◽  
Literary Prizes ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>In this study, I have collected and summarized the functional aspects of a literary prize, contest, and rating, which indicate their affiliation with the marketing complex of the publishing house for the first time. For this purpose, I have analyzed and summarized the common concepts of the functioning of literary prizes and contests as advertising tools for publishing activity. Because the previous studies are only focused on the fact of the impact of the prize on the promotion of editions but do not explain it, these aspects have been considered and introduced by me from the book production’s point of view. I investigated that the prizes and the contests in the literary field are effective marketing tools, which meet many publisher’s needs at the same time and can be considered a non-profit form of capital. I have reviewed the works of other authors, who accept that the economic success of the book is rising if the author is a winner of the literary prize or contest. I have found out that the book prize activates the demand for the book, and the literary contest is a tool to track the reader’s reaction to a future publication. In this way, literary prizes and contests can be considered as a way of conducting a marketing dialogue with the target audience. I have focused on the information support of literary national and international prizes and contests by the media, which attracts attention to the book and forms the reader’s interest. The literary prizes and contests are also considered as a way of exploring trends and their changes, familiarization the popular genres among the target audience and fixation the current choice of modern readers. Literary prizes and contests motivate the authors to improve their literary excellence, are the source of new authors and works, and assist in increasing sales of books. However, further research is recommended.</em></p><strong><em>Key words:</em></strong><em> book prize, book rating, literary contest, literary prize, functions of the literary prizes.</em>

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI SULAWESI TENGGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
La Ode Jabuddin ◽  
Ayub M Padangaran ◽  
Azhar Bafadal Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Direct Expenditure

This study aims to: (1) Knowing the dynamics of fiscal policy and the performance of the agricultural sector, (2) Analyze the factors that influence fiscal policy and the performance                   of the agricultural sector, and (3) Analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector. The data used in this study were pooled 2005-2013 data in the aggregate. Econometric model the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector is built in the form of simultaneous equations, consisting of 7 equations with 25 total variables in the model, 7 endogenous variables, 12 exogenous variables, and 6 variables lag. The model is estimated by 2SLS method SYSLIN procedures and historical simulation with SIMNLIN procedure.The results showed that: (1) The development of fiscal policy in Southeast Sulawesi from year to year tends to increase, (2) The performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect of GDP has decreased, from the aspect of labor is still consistent, in terms of investment to grow positively, and assign roles which means to decrease the number of poor people, (3) factors affecting fiscal policy is local revenues, equalization funds, other revenues, as well as the lag fiscal policy, (4) the factors that affect the performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect GDP is labor, direct expenditure and GDP lag; from the aspect of labor is the total labor force, investment, land area, direct expenditure, as well as the lag of labor; from the aspect of investment is influenced by GDP per capita, land area, interest rates and investment lag; as well as from the aspect of poor people, are affected by population, investments, direct expenditure and poverty lag, (5). Fiscal policy impact on the agricultural sector GDP increase, a decrease in the number of poor, declining agricultural laborers, and a decrease in the amount of investment in the agricultural sector.Keywords: Fiscal policy, the performance of the agricultural sector, the simultaneous equations

On the Impact of Aptness, Conventionality and Familiarity on Metaphor Processing from a Meta-analytical Point of View

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-106
Author(s):  
Csilla Rákosi
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Psycholinguistic Research ◽  
Analytical Point ◽  
Metaphor Processing ◽  
The Impact

Psycholinguistic research into metaphor processing is burdened with empirical problems as experiments provide diverging evidence on the impact of conventionality, familiarity and aptness, and with conceptual issues as the interpretation and operationalization of the three concepts mentioned, as well as the related predictions which can be drawn from theories of metaphor processing, are controversial in the literature. This paper uses tools of statistical meta-analysis in order to bring us closer to the solution of these problems and reveal future lines of research.

Wacana Kolonial dalam Novel Max Havelaar: Sebuah Kajian Poskolonial

Metahumaniora ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Abu Bakar Ramadhan Muhamad
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Colonial Discourse ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Voice

AbstrakHegemoni kolonialisme dalam budaya poskolonial merupakan alasan penelitian inikemudian mengkaji wacana kolonial dalam novel Max Havellar (MH) khususnya dampakditimbulkannya. Dampak dimaksud adalah posisi keberpihakan pemikiran tersirat darikarya tersebut. Hasil pembahasan menunjukkan, secara temporal maupun permanen MHmenyuarakan ketidakadilan dalam kondisi-kondisi kolonial menyangkut penindasan sangpenjajah terhadap terjajah. Hanya saja, upaya mengatasnamakan atau mewakili suarakaum terjajah terbukti mengimplikasikan ciri ideologis statis kerangka kolonialisme(orientalisme); yakni cara pandang Eropasentris, di mana “Barat” sebagai self adalah superior,dan “Timur” sebagai other adalah inferior. Dalam konteks poskolonialisme, MH dengan sifatkritisnya yang berupaya “menyuarakan” nasib pribumi terjajah, justru menampilkan stigmapenguatan kolonialitas itu sendiri secara hegemonik. Artinya, “menyuarakan” nasib pribumidimaknai sebagai keberpihankan kolonial yang kontradiktif, di mana stigma penguatankolonialitas justru lebih terasa, ujung-ujungnya melanggengkan hegemoni kolonial. Tidakmembela yang terjajah, tetapi memperhalus cara kerja mesin kolonial.AbstractThe hegemony of colonialism in the culture of postcolonial society is the reason this studythen examines the colonial discourse in the novel Max Havellar (MH) in particular the impactit brings. The impact in question is the implied position of thought in the work. The resultsof the discussion show that, temporarily or permanently, MH voiced injustice in the colonialconditions regarding the oppression of the colonist against the colonized. However, the effort toname or represent the voice of the colonized has proven to imply a static ideological characterin the framework of colonialism (orientalism); ie Eropacentric point of view, in which “West” asself is superior, and “East” as the other is the inferior. In the context of postcolonialism, MH withits critical nature that seeks to “voice” the fate of the colonized natives, actually presents thestigma of strengthening coloniality itself hegemonicly. That is, “voicing” the fate of the pribumiis interpreted as a contradictory colonial flare, where the stigma of strengthening colonialityis more pronounced, which ultimately perpetuates the hegemony of colonialism. No longerdefending the colonized, but refining the workings of the colonial machinery.

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