scholarly journals Untangling impacts of global warming and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on long-term variability of North Pacific tropical cyclone track density

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (41) ◽  
pp. eaba6813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiuwei Zhao ◽  
Ruifen Zhan ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Qiong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

How much the observed long-term variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is due to anthropogenic global warming (GW) or internal climate variability remains unclear, limiting the confidence in projected future change in TC activity. Here, the relative contributions of GW and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to the long-term variability of TC track density (TCTD) over the North Pacific (NP) are quantified on the basis of statistical analyses and climate model simulations. Results show that historical GW mainly reduced (increased) TCTD over the western (eastern) NP, while the positive (negative) IPO corresponds to a NP basin–wide increase (decrease) in TCTD except in some coastal regions. The IPO has a much greater impact on TCTD over the western NP than GW, while the IPO and GW impacts are about equal over the eastern NP during 1960–2019. These findings have important implications for projecting future TC activity over the NP.

scholarly journals Modulation of Atmospheric Response to North Pacific SST Anomalies under Global Warming: A Statistical Assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6554-6566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bolan Gan ◽  
Lixin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study the modulation of ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Pacific in early winter from global warming is investigated based on both the observations and multiple climate model simulations from a statistical perspective. It is demonstrated that the basin-scale atmospheric circulation displays an equivalent barotropic ridge in response to warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. This warm SST–ridge response in early winter can be enhanced significantly by global warming, indicating a strengthening of air–sea coupling over the North Pacific. This enhancement is likely associated with the intensification of storm tracks and, in turn, the amplification of atmospheric transient eddy feedback in a warm climate, although the secular trend of enhanced storm-track activity over the North Pacific is suggested to be biased in reanalysis product.

A New Look at Snowpack Trends in the Cascade Mountains

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 2473-2491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark T. Stoelinga ◽  
Mark D. Albright ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract This study examines the changes in Cascade Mountain spring snowpack since 1930. Three new time series facilitate this analysis: a water-balance estimate of Cascade snowpack from 1930 to 2007 that extends the observational record 20 years earlier than standard snowpack measurements; a radiosonde-based time series of lower-tropospheric temperature during onshore flow, to which Cascade snowpack is well correlated; and a new index of the North Pacific sea level pressure pattern that encapsulates modes of variability to which Cascade spring snowpack is particularly sensitive. Cascade spring snowpack declined 23% during 1930–2007. This loss is nearly statistically significant at the 5% level. The snowpack increased 19% during the recent period of most rapid global warming (1976–2007), though this change is not statistically significant because of large annual variability. From 1950 to 1997, a large and statistically significant decline of 48% occurred. However, 80% of this decline is connected to changes in the circulation patterns over the North Pacific Ocean that vary naturally on annual to interdecadal time scales. The residual time series of Cascade snowpack after Pacific variability is removed displays a relatively steady loss rate of 2.0% decade−1, yielding a loss of 16% from 1930 to 2007. This loss is very nearly statistically significant and includes the possible impacts of anthropogenic global warming. The dates of maximum snowpack and 90% melt out have shifted 5 days earlier since 1930. Both shifts are statistically insignificant. A new estimate of the sensitivity of Cascade spring snowpack to temperature of −11% per °C, when combined with climate model projections of 850-hPa temperatures offshore of the Pacific Northwest, yields a projected 9% loss of Cascade spring snowpack due to anthropogenic global warming between 1985 and 2025.

What Has Changed the Proportion of Intense Hurricanes in the Last 30 Years?

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1432-1439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The recently reported increase in the proportion of intense hurricanes is considerably larger than those projected by the maximum potential intensity (MPI) theory and the results of numerical simulation. To reconcile this discrepancy, the authors examined the best-track datasets for the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP), and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins. It was found that the changes in the tropical cyclone formation locations and prevailing tracks may have contributed to the changes in the proportion of the intense hurricanes over the past 30 yr. The authors suggest that the changes in the formation locations and prevailing tracks have a profound impact on the basinwide tropical cyclone intensity. Thus, how the atmospheric circulation in the tropical cyclone basins responds to the global warming may be a critical factor in understanding the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2378-2396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Stowasser ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Kevin Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract The influence of global warming on the climatology of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin is examined using the high-resolution International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) regional climate model forced by ocean temperatures and horizontal boundary fields taken from the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 2 (CCSM2) coupled global climate model. The regional model is first tested in 10 yr of simulation with boundary forcing taken from observations and is shown to produce a reasonably good representation of the observed statistics of tropical cyclone numbers and locations. The model was then run for 10 yr with forcing from a present-day control run of the CCSM2 and then for 10 yr with forcing fields taken from the end of a long run with 6 times the present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration. The global-mean surface air temperature warming in the perturbed run is 4.5 K, while the surface warming in the tropical western North Pacific is about 3 K. The results of these experiments reveal no statistically significant change in basinwide tropical cyclone numbers in the peak season from July to October in response to the CO2 increase. However, a pronounced and statistically significant increase in tropical cyclone occurrence in the South China Sea is found. While the basinwide total number of storms remains nearly unchanged in the warm climate, there is a statistically significant increase in the average strength of the cyclones and in the number of the storms in the strongest wind categories.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Equatorial and North Pacific on the Arctic Stratosphere According to INMCM5 Climate Model Simulations

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
◽  
M. A. Kolennikova ◽  
S. V. Kostrykin ◽  
E. M. Volodin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Five 50-year simulations with version 5 of the INM RAS coupled climate model revealed that the winters with El Nio are characterized by higher Arctic stratospheric temperature as compared to the seasons with La Nia. Lower stratospheric temperature in the Arctic regions as compared to the seasons with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies corresponds to the winter seasons with positive SST anomalies in the North Pacific.

scholarly journals Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 986-995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey J. Polovina ◽  
John P. Dunne ◽  
Phoebe A. Woodworth ◽  
Evan A. Howell
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Fish Catch ◽  
Equatorial Upwelling ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Polovina, J. J., Dunne, J. P., Woodworth, P. A., and Howell, E. A. 2011. Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 986–995. A climate model that includes a coupled ocean biogeochemistry model is used to define large oceanic biomes in the North Pacific Ocean and describe their changes over the 21st century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A2 future atmospheric CO2 emissions scenario. Driven by enhanced stratification and a northward shift in the mid-latitude westerlies under climate change, model projections demonstrated that between 2000 and 2100, the area of the subtropical biome expands by ∼30% by 2100, whereas the area of temperate and equatorial upwelling (EU) biomes decreases by ∼34 and 28%, respectively, by 2100. Over the century, the total biome primary production and fish catch is projected to increase by 26% in the subtropical biome and decrease by 38 and 15% in the temperate and the equatorial biomes, respectively. Although the primary production per unit area declines slightly in the subtropical and the temperate biomes, it increases 17% in the EU biome. Two areas where the subtropical biome boundary exhibits the greatest movement is in the northeast Pacific, where it moves northwards by as much as 1000 km per 100 years and at the equator in the central Pacific, where it moves eastwards by 2000 km per 100 years. Lastly, by the end of the century, there are projected to be more than 25 million km2 of water with a mean sea surface temperature of 31°C in the subtropical and EU biomes, representing a new thermal habitat. The projected trends in biome carrying capacity and fish catch suggest resource managers might have to address long-term trends in fishing capacity and quota levels.

scholarly journals Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1233-1243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Jeffrey P. Donnelly ◽  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document