scholarly journals Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6548) ◽  
pp. 1342-1344
Author(s):  
J. N. Bassis ◽  
B. Berg ◽  
A. J. Crawford ◽  
D. I. Benn

Portions of ice sheets grounded deep beneath sea level can disintegrate if tall ice cliffs at the ice-ocean boundary start to collapse under their own weight. This process, called marine ice cliff instability, could lead to catastrophic retreat of sections of West Antarctica on decadal-to-century time scales. Here we use a model that resolves flow and failure of ice to show that dynamic thinning can slow or stabilize cliff retreat, but when ice thickness increases rapidly upstream from the ice cliff, there is a transition to catastrophic collapse. However, even if vulnerable locations like Thwaites Glacier start to collapse, small resistive forces from sea-ice and calved debris can slow down or arrest retreat, reducing the potential for sustained ice sheet collapse.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan Romeyn ◽  
Alfred Hanssen ◽  
Bent Ole Ruud ◽  
Tor Arne Johansen

Abstract. Air-coupled flexural waves appear as wave trains of constant frequency that arrive in advance of the direct air-wave from an impulsive source travelling over a floating ice sheet. The frequency of these waves varies with the flexural stiffness of the ice sheet, which is controlled by a combination of thickness and elastic properties. We develop a theoretical framework to understand these waves, utilizing modern numerical and Fourier methods to give a simpler and more accessible description than the pioneering, yet unwieldly analytical efforts of the 1950's. Our favoured dynamical model can be understood in terms of linear filter theory and is closely related to models used to describe the flexural waves produced by moving vehicles on floating plates. We find that air-coupled flexural waves are a robust feature of floating ice-sheets excited by impulsive sources over a large range of thicknesses, and we present a simple closed-form estimator for the ice thickness. Our study is focussed on first-year sea ice of ~20–80 cm thickness in Van Mijenfjorden, Svalbard, that was investigated through active source seismic experiments over four field campaigns in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2018. The air-coupled flexural frequencies for sea-ice in this thickness range are ~60–240 Hz. While air-coupled flexural waves for thick sea-ice have received little attention, the higher frequencies associated with thin ice on fresh water lakes and rivers are well known to the ice-skating community and have been reported in popular media. Estimation of ice physical properties, following the approach we present, may allow improved surface wave modelling and wavefield subtraction in reflection seismic studies where flexural wave noise is undesirable. On the other hand, air-coupled flexural waves may also permit non-destructive continuous monitoring of ice thickness and flexural stiffness using simple, relatively inexpensive microphones located in the vicinity of the desired measurement location, either above the ice-sheet or along the shoreline. In this case, naturally forming cracks in the ice may be an appropriate impulsive source capable of exciting flexural waves in floating ice sheets in a passive monitoring context.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 159-164
Author(s):  
Robert S. Steen ◽  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley

A major component of the climate system on the 10 000-100 000 year time-scales is continental ice sheets, yet many of the mechanisms involved in the land-sea-ice processes that affect the ice sheets are poorly understood. In order to examine these processes in more detail, we have developed a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea-ice—continental-ice-sheet model (CCSLI model). This model includes a hydrologic cycle, a detailed surface energy and mass balance, a thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a zonally averaged dynamic ice-flow model with bedrock depression.Because of the variety of space and time-scales inherent in such a model, we have asynchronously coupled the land—ice model to the other components of the model. In this paper the asynchronous coupling is described and sensitivity studies are presented that determine the values of the asynchronous coupling parameters. Model simulations using these values allow the model to run nearly ten times faster with minimal changes in the final state of the ice sheet.


Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 364 (6444) ◽  
pp. eaav7908 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Larour ◽  
H. Seroussi ◽  
S. Adhikari ◽  
E. Ivins ◽  
L. Caron ◽  
...  

Geodetic investigations of crustal motions in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and models of ice-sheet evolution in the past 10,000 years have recently highlighted the stabilizing role of solid-Earth uplift on polar ice sheets. One critical aspect, however, that has not been assessed is the impact of short-wavelength uplift generated by the solid-Earth response to unloading over short time scales close to ice-sheet grounding lines (areas where the ice becomes afloat). Here, we present a new global simulation of Antarctic evolution at high spatiotemporal resolution that captures all solid Earth processes that affect ice sheets and show a projected negative feedback in grounding line migration of 38% for Thwaites Glacier 350 years in the future, or 26.8% reduction in corresponding sea-level contribution.


2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 2547-2594
Author(s):  
L. B. Stap ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
B. de Boer ◽  
R. Bintanja ◽  
L. J. Lourens

Abstract. During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate have interacted on many different time scales. On long time scales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets on North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally-averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice-sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2-record from ice cores samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level, that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long time scales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation, by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for Northern Hemispheric glaciation.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 159-164
Author(s):  
Robert S. Steen ◽  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley

A major component of the climate system on the 10 000-100 000 year time-scales is continental ice sheets, yet many of the mechanisms involved in the land-sea-ice processes that affect the ice sheets are poorly understood. In order to examine these processes in more detail, we have developed a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea-ice—continental-ice-sheet model (CCSLI model). This model includes a hydrologic cycle, a detailed surface energy and mass balance, a thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a zonally averaged dynamic ice-flow model with bedrock depression.Because of the variety of space and time-scales inherent in such a model, we have asynchronously coupled the land—ice model to the other components of the model. In this paper the asynchronous coupling is described and sensitivity studies are presented that determine the values of the asynchronous coupling parameters. Model simulations using these values allow the model to run nearly ten times faster with minimal changes in the final state of the ice sheet.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiang Xie ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Felicity S. McCormack ◽  
Andrew N. Mackintosh

Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on time scales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v0.3). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land-sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (Shallow Ice Approximation) and SSA (Shallow Shelf Approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates similar to observed for present day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealised experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20 kyr, 50 kyr and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow build-up and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to time scales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr per day on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myrs) within one month.


2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 551-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Roberts ◽  
R. C. Warner ◽  
D. Young ◽  
A. Wright ◽  
T. D. van Ommen ◽  
...  

Abstract. Ice thickness data over much of East Antarctica are sparse and irregularly distributed. This poses difficulties for reconstructing the homogeneous coverage needed to properly assess underlying sub-glacial morphology and fundamental geometric constraints on sea level rise. Here we introduce a new physically-based ice thickness interpolation scheme and apply this to existing ice thickness data in the Aurora Subglacial Basin region. The skill and robustness of the new reconstruction is demonstrated by comparison with new data from the ICECAP project. The interpolated morphology shows an extensive marine-based ice sheet, with considerably more area below sea-level than shown by prior studies. It also shows deep features connecting the coastal grounding zone with the deepest regions in the interior. This has implications for ice sheet response to a warming ocean and underscores the importance of obtaining additional high resolution data in these marginal zones for modelling ice sheet evolution.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gagliardini ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Florent Gimbert

<p>Friction at the base of ice-sheets has been shown to be one of the largest uncertainty of model projections for the contribution of ice-sheet to future sea level rise. On hard beds, most of the apparent friction is the result of ice flowing over the bumps that have a size smaller than described by the grid resolution of ice-sheet models. To account for this friction, the classical approach is to replace this under resolved roughness by an ad-hoc friction law. In an imaginary world of unlimited computing resource and highly resolved bedrock DEM, one should solve for all bed roughnesses assuming pure sliding at the bedrock-ice interface. If such solutions are not affordable at the scale of an ice-sheet or even at the scale of a glacier, the effect of small bumps can be inferred using synthetical periodic geometry. In this presentation,<span>  </span>beds are constructed using the superposition of up to five bed geometries made of sinusoidal bumps of decreasing wavelength and amplitudes. The contribution to the total friction of all five beds is evaluated by inverse methods using the most resolved solution as observation. It is shown that small features of few meters can contribute up to almost half of the total friction, depending on the wavelengths and amplitudes distribution. This work also confirms that the basal friction inferred using inverse method<span>  </span>is very sensitive to how the bed topography is described by the model grid, and therefore depends on the size of the model grid itself.<span> </span></p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 665-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan C. Scott ◽  
Julien P. Nicolas ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Joel R. Norris ◽  
Dan Lubin

Understanding the drivers of surface melting in West Antarctica is crucial for understanding future ice loss and global sea level rise. This study identifies atmospheric drivers of surface melt on West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet margins and relationships with tropical Pacific and high-latitude climate forcing using multidecadal reanalysis and satellite datasets. Physical drivers of ice melt are diagnosed by comparing satellite-observed melt patterns to anomalies of reanalysis near-surface air temperature, winds, and satellite-derived cloud cover, radiative fluxes, and sea ice concentration based on an Antarctic summer synoptic climatology spanning 1979–2017. Summer warming in West Antarctica is favored by Amundsen Sea (AS) blocking activity and a negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), which both correlate with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extensive melt events on the Ross–Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are linked to persistent, intense AS blocking anticyclones, which force intrusions of marine air over the ice sheet. Surface melting is primarily driven by enhanced downwelling longwave radiation from clouds and a warm, moist atmosphere and by turbulent mixing of sensible heat to the surface by föhn winds. Since the late 1990s, concurrent with ocean-driven WAIS mass loss, summer surface melt occurrence has increased from the Amundsen Sea Embayment to the eastern Ross Ice Shelf. We link this change to increasing anticyclonic advection of marine air into West Antarctica, amplified by increasing air–sea fluxes associated with declining sea ice concentration in the coastal Ross–Amundsen Seas.


2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2195-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Marie-France Loutre ◽  
Thierry Fichefet

Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG,  ∼  130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate–ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet–climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.


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