DEVELOPMENT OF A GEOLOGICALLY-INFORMED FAULT SOURCE PARAMETERS DATABASE AND UPDATES OF THE FAULT SOURCE MODEL FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL

The H2020 Project SERA (WP25-JRA3; http://www.sera-eu.org) is committed to updating and extending the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13; Woessner et al., 2015, Bull. Earthquake Eng.) to form the basis of the next revision of the European seismic design code (CEN-EC8). Following the probabilistic framework established for ESHM13, the 2020 update (ESHM20) requires a continent-wide seismogenic model based on input from earthquake catalogs, tectonic information, and active faulting. The development of the European Fault-Source Model (EFSM20) fulfills the requirements related to active faulting.EFSM20 has two main categories of seismogenic faults: crustal faults and subduction systems. Crustal faults are meant to provide the hazard model with seismicity rates in a variety of tectonic contexts, including onshore and offshore active plate margins and plate interiors. Subduction systems are meant to provide the hazard model with both slab interface and intraslab seismicity rates. The model covers an area that encompasses a buffer of 300 km around all target European countries (except for Overseas Countries and Territories, OTCs), and a maximum of 300 km depth for slabs.The compilation of EFSM20 relies heavily on publicly available datasets and voluntarily contributed datasets spanning large regions, as well as solicited local contributions in specific areas of interest. The current status of the EFSM20 compilation includes 1,256 records of crustal faults for a total length of ~92,906 km and four subduction systems, namely the Gibraltar Arc, Calabrian Arc, Hellenic Arc, and Cyprus Arc.In this contribution, we present the curation of the main datasets and their associated information, the criteria for the prioritization and harmonization across the region, and the main strategy for transferring the earthquake fault-source input to the hazard modelers.The final version of EFSM20 will be made available through standard web services published in the EFEHR (http://www.efehr.org) and EPOS (https://www.seismofaults.eu) platforms adopting FAIR data principles.The SERA project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No.730900.

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Seismic hazard of the Canterbury region, New Zealand

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.41.2.51-67 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 51-67 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Mark Stirling ◽

Matthew Gerstenberger ◽

Nicola Litchfield ◽

Graeme McVerry ◽

Warwick Smith ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Source Model ◽

Southern Alps ◽

Earthquake Source ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Regional Pattern ◽

New Methods

We present a new probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Canterbury region, the model superseding the earlier model of Stirling et al. (1999, 2001). The updated model incorporates new onshore and offshore fault data, new seismicity data, new methods for the earthquake source parameterisation of both datasets, and new methods for estimation of the expected levels of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) across the region. While the overall regional pattern of estimated hazard has not changed since the earlier seismic hazard model, there have been slight reductions in hazard in some areas (western Canterbury Plains and eastern Southern Alps), coupled with significant increases in hazard in one area (immediately northeast of Kaikoura). The changes to estimated acceleration for the new versus older model serve to show the extent that major changes to a multidisciplinary source model may impact the final estimates of hazard, while the new MMI estimates show the added impact of a new methodology for calculating MMI hazard.

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OpenQuake Implementation of the Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/0220190100 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 90 (6) ◽

pp. 2227-2235 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Chris Van Houtte ◽

Elizabeth Abbott

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Best Practice ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Source Model ◽

Time Varying ◽

Time Period ◽

Practical Model ◽

Prospective Model ◽

Time Varying Models ◽

Practical Constraints

ABSTRACT This article describes the release of the GNS Science Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model (CSHM), as implemented in the Global Earthquake Model’s OpenQuake software. Time‐varying models are implemented for the 50 yr time period between 2014 and 2064, as well as the 1 yr period from 1 September 2018 to 31 August 2019. Previous implementations have been confined to GNS in‐house software, and although source model input files have been made publicly available, this implementation improves the levels of visibility, documentation, and version control. Because of practical constraints in preparing a model for routine analysis, some corrections and changes to the previous implementations have been made. These constraints highlight issues for consideration when developing future hazard models, particularly the necessity of maintaining a balance between best‐practice science and practical model implementation. By implementing the CSHM in OpenQuake, the model is now in a form that allows users to obtain model outputs for engineering design, risk analyses, and prospective model testing.

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Integrate Urban‐Scale Seismic Hazard Analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/0220170261 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 89 (3) ◽

pp. 967-970 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

M. P. Moschetti ◽

N. Luco ◽

A. D. Frankel ◽

M. D. Petersen ◽

B. T. Aagaard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Model ◽

The U.S

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Seismic Source Characterization for the 2014 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/110514eqs183m ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. S31-S57 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Morgan P. Moschetti ◽

Peter M. Powers ◽

Mark D. Petersen ◽

Oliver S. Boyd ◽

Rui Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Source Parameters ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Seismic Source Models ◽

Source Models ◽

Model Components

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

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2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/87552930211052061 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 875529302110520

Author(s):

Mark D Petersen ◽

Allison M Shumway ◽

Peter M Powers ◽

Morgan P Moschetti ◽

Andrea L Llenos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Adaptive Methods ◽

Source Model ◽

Historical Seismicity ◽

The State ◽

Caldera Collapse ◽

Maximum Magnitude ◽

Ground Shaking

The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

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Integrate Urban‐Scale Seismic Hazard Analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/02201070262 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

M. P. Moschetti ◽

N. Luco ◽

A. D. Frankel ◽

M. D. Petersen ◽

B. T. Aagaard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Model ◽

The U.S

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Fault source investigation of the 6 December 2016 MwMw 6.5 Pidie Jaya, Indonesia, earthquake based on GPS and its implications of the geological survey result

Journal of Applied Geodesy ◽

10.1515/jag-2020-0027 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 405-412

Author(s):

Endra Gunawan ◽

Takuya Nishimura ◽

Susilo Susilo ◽

Sri Widiyantoro ◽

Nanang T. Puspito ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surface Deformation ◽

Source Parameters ◽

Secondary Effects ◽

Near Surface ◽

Morphological Attributes ◽

Ground Shaking ◽

The North ◽

Coulomb Failure ◽

North And South ◽

Fault Source

AbstractOn 6 December 2016 at 22:03 UTC, a devastating magnitude 6-class strike-slip earthquake occurred along an unidentified and unmapped fault in Pidie Jaya, northern Sumatra. We analysed the possible fault using continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observation available in the region. In our investigation, we searched for the fault source parameters of the north- and south-dipping left-lateral faults and the west- and east-dipping right-lateral faults. We identified that the fault responsible for the earthquake was located offshore, with a southwest-northeast direction. We also computed the Coulomb failure stress and compared the result with the distribution of the aftershocks. In this study, we demonstrated that the result of the geological field survey conducted soon after the mainshock was attributed to the secondary effects of ground shaking and near-surface deformation, and not surface faulting. The newly identified offshore fault proposed by this study calls for further investigation of the corresponding submarine morphological attributes in this particular region.

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A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/0220160084 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 87 (6) ◽

pp. 1311-1318 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽

David A. Rhoades ◽

Graeme H. McVerry

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Time Dependent ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

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PSHA after a strong earthquake: hints for the recovery

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-7257 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 59 ◽

Author(s):

L. Peruzza ◽

R. Gee ◽

B. Pace ◽

G. Roberts ◽

O. Scotti ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hazard Analysis ◽

Central Italy ◽

Safety Evaluation ◽

Preliminary Evidence ◽

Source Model ◽

Aftershock Sequence ◽

Earthquake Occurrence ◽

Central Italy Earthquake ◽

Complex Fault ◽

Fault Source

We perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) of the ongoing aftershock sequence following the Amatrice August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake. APSHA is a time-dependent PSHA calculation where earthquake occurrence rates decrease after the occurrence of a mainshock following an Omori-type decay. In this paper we propose a fault source model based on preliminary evidence of the complex fault geometry associated with the mainshock. We then explore the possibility that the aftershock seismicity is distributed either uniformly or non-uniformly across the fault source. The hazard results are then computed for short-intermediate exposure periods (1-3 months, 1 year). They are compared to the background hazard and intended to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluation.

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