Forecasting Water Inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir during Spring Flood under Current Climate Conditions: Problems and Reproducibility

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 953-967
Author(s):  
N. A. Varentsova ◽  
M. B. Kireeva ◽  
N. L. Frolova ◽  
M. A. Kharlamov ◽  
V. P. Ilich ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Martynov ◽  
Timothy Raupach ◽  
Olivia Martius

<p>Several remarkable hailstorms have occurred on the territory of Switzerland during the month<br>of May, 2018.<br>This period has been simulated, using the WRF4.0 model at a convection-permitting<br>resolution (1.5 km), using different microphysical schemes (Thompson, Morrison, P3).<br>The surrogate climate change approach has been used for imitating the climate conditions,<br>corresponding to the end of the 21st century (CMIP5 model data, RCP8.5 scenario).<br>The HAILCAST-1D model output has been used as a measure of simulated hail size and 5-<br>minute 3-D radar reflectivity field has been used for cell identification and tracking.<br>Hailstorms produced in the current climate and in surrogate climate change simulations have<br>been examined using neighborhood methods and a storm-tracking algorithm. Current-climate<br>simulated hailstorms were compared with the ground observations and MeteoSwiss radar<br>data.<br>The influence of microphysical schemes to the characteristics of simulated hailstorms has<br>been studied. </p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin

<p>The most urgent tasks facing hydrologists of Ukraine and the world include identifying patterns of rivers hydrological regime against the background of global warming, and assessing these changes. Changes in the annual runoff distribution under climate change impact require separate investigation of anthropogenically altered catchments, such as the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. Siverskyi Donets is the largest river in Eastern Ukraine and the main source of water supply for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was evaluated by two periods: to the beginning of pronounced climatic changes and the current period. The research is proposed for three water year types: wet year, average year and dry year. The Siverskyi Donets Basin is a complicated water body with peculiar physico-geographical conditions, because of that annual runoff distribution is somewhat different for the left-bank tributaries, right-bank tributaries and, in fact, the Siverskyi Donets River itself.</p><p>It is found that the most runoff of the wet year for both periods is in the spring months. The current period is characterized by a much smaller runoff of spring flood (from the volume of annual runoff) than in the previous period. The annual runoff distribution is offset. Some differences can be observed between the left and right tributaries. For the left-bank tributaries, which has less anthropogenic load, climate change has led to a significant increase of winter and summer-autumn low flow periods. On the right tributaries of the Siverskyi Donets, which are flowing within the industrial part of the Donbass, the low flow period has not changed, or even decreased. Such situation is due to the decrease of mine water disposal because of the industrial production decrease in the region.</p><p>The largest part of the annual runoff in the average year falls on February and March. In the current period, the spring flood has decreased, but the summer and autumn low flow period has increased. The left-bank tributaries runoff during the winter low period is decrease. Instead, the runoff attributable to the autumn and winter low period has increased for the right-bank tributaries and the Siverskyi Donets itself.</p><p>Analyzing the runoff distribution of dry year, we can conclude that the most wet is February. At present, in dry years, spring flood practically are not allocated from the hydrograph; the baseflow months runoff significantly increased. The volume of winter runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin is increased. Actually, for the Siverskyi Donets River the runoff of the summer period has increased and the runoff of the winter and autumn periods has decreased at the present stage.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin in the current climate change has undergone significant changes: the spring flood has decreased and the summer-autumn low flow has increased.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Perpina ◽  
Vincent Noel ◽  
Helene Chepfer ◽  
Rodrigo Guzman ◽  
Artem Feofilov

<p><span>Climate models predict a weakening of the tropical atmospheric circulation, more specifically a slowdown of Hadley and Walker circulations. Many climate models predict that global warming will have a major impact on cloud properties, including their geographic and vertical distribution. Climate feedbacks from clouds, which amplify warming when positive, are today the main source of uncertainty in climate forecasts. Tropical clouds play a key role in the redistribution of solar energy and their evolution will likely affect climate. Therefore, it is crucial to better understand how tropical clouds will evolve in a changing climate. Among cloud properties, the vertical distribution is sensitive to climate change. Active sensors integrated into satellites, such as CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization), make it possible to obtain a detailed vertical distribution of clouds. CALIOP measurements and calibration are more stable over time and more precise than passive remote sensing satellite detectors. CALIOP observations can be simulated in the atmospheric conditions predicted by climate models using lidar simulators such as COSP (</span><span>CFMIP Observation Simulator Package). Moreover, </span><span>cloud properties directly drive the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE). Understanding how models predict cloud vertical distribution will evolve in the future has implications for how models predict the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) will evolve in the future. </span></p><p><span>The purpose of our study is to compare, firstly, based on satellite observations (GOCCP) and reanalyzes (ERA5), we will establish the relationship between atmospheric dynamic circulation, opaque cloud properties and TOA CRE. Then, we will compare this observed relationship with the one found in climate model simulations of current climate conditions (CESM1 and IPSL-CM6). Finally, we will identify how model biases in present climate conditions influence the cloud feedback spread between models in a warmer climate.</span></p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-127
Author(s):  
S. N. Volkov ◽  
S. V. Savinova ◽  
E. V. Cherkashina ◽  
D. A Shapovalov ◽  
V. V. Bratkov ◽  
...  

Аim. Assessment of current climate changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia in order to predict the yield of winter wheat.Methods .Integral indicators of climatic conditions for agricultural production were employed. For the investigations, we selected five‐year periods for which the meteorological parameters were averaged, and to identify trends the data of specific five‐year periods were compared with the average value for the entireseries of observations (1960‐2020).Results. The deviation of precipitation in April was highest in 2011‐2015, when it increased by 22 mm, and in 1986‐1990 and 1991‐1995, when it decreased by 15 and 10 mm respectively. In Eastern Ciscaucasia,where conditions are more arid than in the Western and Central regions, in both the rise in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, especially in April and May, increased in the 21stcentury for the entire period of active vegetation.Conclusion.It was established that the value of the hydrothermal coefficient practically did not change during the 1960‐2020 period. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was an increase in productivity against the background of a relatively high level of annual precipitation and this stability is confirmed at the present time. There is a very close relationship between natural and climatic factors and the level of winter wheat yield.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ado ALI ◽  
Laouali ABDOU ◽  
Maman Maârouhi INOUSSA ◽  
Josiane SEGHIERI ◽  
Ali MAHAMANE

The human use of plant resources and land to face increasing population needs in Africa to the regression or even the disappearance of some useful multi-purpose species such as Diospyros mespiliformis Hochst. Ex A. Rich. Increasing climatic variability is an additional threat for these species. The present study aims to identify the areas that are potentially favorable to D. mespiliformis conservation or regeneration in Niger and to analyze the impact of the current climate change. Thus to assess the D. mespiliformis distribution areas, the geographic coordinates of D. mespiliformis, the bioclimatic data, the soil and vegetation cover were collected and used to modeling based on the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The soil cover, annual cumulated precipitations and the average temperature are the most determining variables. This study also shows that the ecological niche of D. mespiliformis is located in the Central and Eastern bioclimates, within which almost 3% of the surface is very favorable under the current climate conditions and may reach 3. 94 % under 2050 ones after. These results indicate that the climate change expected in Niger is expected to be more favorable to the studied species than the current climate conditions. This represents an opportunity for its domestication.


Author(s):  
S V Savinova ◽  
A V Loshakov ◽  
V V Bratkov ◽  
G V Lomakin ◽  
N A Ivanova

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Svetlana A. Agafonova ◽  
Alexander N. Vasilenko

The ice regime of the Russian Arctic rivers and its hazardous manifestations under current climate conditions are characterized. The ice phenomena in rivers in the region determine the conditions of navigation, water supply, hydropower station (HPS) operation, and the construction of temporary ice bridges and roads. Data of more than 100 hydrological gages over period from 1936 to 2016 were used to compile various cartographic materials and to analyze the spatial variations of the dates of ice phenomena, the duration of ice-free and ice cover periods, and the maximal ice thickness. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of level regime in periods with ice phenomena. Data on the frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run, the hazard of ice jams, and the seasonal features of the passage of maximal annual water level are generalized.The observed changes in ice regime characteristics and ice hazard are analyzed. The years of the start of statistically significant shift of the periods of ice phenomena, caused by both climate changes and anthropogenic impact, are identified. The increase in the duration of the ice-free period was found to be not greater than 3–4 days for East Siberian rivers, 5–6 days for the Middle and West Siberian rivers, and up to 10–12 days for the rivers in the European part. A decrease in the maximal ice thickness is most pronounced in the rivers of the Northern European Russia, where it is 10–15 cm. The frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run remains constant.


Author(s):  
S V Savinova ◽  
V V Bratkov ◽  
P V Klyushin ◽  
G V Lomakin ◽  
M R Musaev

2016 ◽  
Vol 824 ◽  
pp. 445-452
Author(s):  
Ivan Chmúrny

The value of the external surface resistance on the outside of the structure in the summer season affects the energy need for cooling buildings. The paper analyzes the convection and radiation in the external environment for the current climate conditions of Slovakia in terms of their impact on the value of the external surface resistance to heat transfer in the months when it is expected cooling of buildings. Analysis of the external surface resistance to heat transfer on the outside of the structure for the monthly method of calculating the energy need for heating and cooling.


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