Assessment of current climate conditions changes in the  territory of Ciscaucasia for the purposes of forecasting  winter wheat yield

Аim. Assessment of current climate changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia in order to predict the yield of winter wheat.Methods .Integral indicators of climatic conditions for agricultural production were employed. For the investigations, we selected five‐year periods for which the meteorological parameters were averaged, and to identify trends the data of specific five‐year periods were compared with the average value for the entireseries of observations (1960‐2020).Results. The deviation of precipitation in April was highest in 2011‐2015, when it increased by 22 mm, and in 1986‐1990 and 1991‐1995, when it decreased by 15 and 10 mm respectively. In Eastern Ciscaucasia,where conditions are more arid than in the Western and Central regions, in both the rise in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, especially in April and May, increased in the 21stcentury for the entire period of active vegetation.Conclusion.It was established that the value of the hydrothermal coefficient practically did not change during the 1960‐2020 period. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was an increase in productivity against the background of a relatively high level of annual precipitation and this stability is confirmed at the present time. There is a very close relationship between natural and climatic factors and the level of winter wheat yield.

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Predicting potential winter wheat yield losses caused by multiple disease systems and climatic conditions

Crop Protection ◽

10.1016/j.cropro.2017.05.005 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 99 ◽

pp. 17-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Radivoje Jevtić ◽

Vesna Župunski ◽

Mirjana Lalošević ◽

Ljubica Župunski

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Yield Losses ◽

Winter Wheat Yield

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Урожайність та якість зерна пшениці м'якої озимої залежно від мінерального живлення

Вісник Полтавської державної аграрної академії ◽

10.31210/visnyk2013.04.36 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 145-148

Author(s):

С. М. Шакалій

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Protein Content ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

Mineral Fertilizers ◽

Mild Winter ◽

Close Relationship ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

Full Protection

Наведено дані досліджень впливу різних норм мінера-льних добрив на урожайність і вміст білка в зерні пше-ниці м'якої озимої. Встановлено, що внесення добрив має вплив на збільшення врожайності зерна та сприяє збіль-шенню вмісту білка в зерні. За допомогою кореляційного аналізу встановлено тісний зв'язок між урожайністю та вмістом білка в зерні пшениці озимої r=0,80). Уро-жайність пшениці озимої істотно змінюється від по-годних умов веґетаційного періоду й норм мінерального живлення. Найкращі результати спостерігаються за повного захисту рослин + «Басфоліар 36 Екстра». The investigation data of influence of different norms of mineral fertilizers on productivity and protein content in wheat grain mild winter are presented. It is established that the application of fertilizers has an impact on the increase of productivity of grain and contributes to an increase in protein content in grain. Using correlation analysis a close relationship between yield and protein content of winter wheat (r=0,80) is established. Winter wheat yield considerably changes from weather conditions during vegetation period and norms of mineral nutrition. The best results are for the full protection of plants + Basfoliar 36 Extra.

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Responses of Winter Wheat Yield to Drought in the North China Plain: Spatial–Temporal Patterns and Climatic Drivers

Water ◽

10.3390/w12113094 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 3094

Author(s):

Jianhua Yang ◽

Jianjun Wu ◽

Leizhen Liu ◽

Hongkui Zhou ◽

Adu Gong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Time Scale ◽

North China Plain ◽

North China ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Response Patterns ◽

The North ◽

The North China Plain ◽

Winter Wheat Yield

Understanding the winter wheat yield responses to drought are the keys to minimizing drought-related winter wheat yield losses under climate change. The research goal of our study is to explore the response patterns of winter wheat yield to drought in the North China Plain (NCP) and then further to study which climatic factors drive the response patterns. For this purpose, winter wheat yield was simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model. Drought was quantified by standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the contributions of the various climatic factors were evaluated using predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) method. The results showed that the responses of winter wheat yield to different time-scale droughts have obvious spatial differences from the north part to the south part in the NCP. Winter wheat yield is more sensitive to the medium (6–9 months) and long (9–12 months) time-scale droughts that occurred in the key growth periods (April and May). The different response patterns of winter wheat yield to the different time-scale droughts are mainly controlled by temperature and water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) in winter in the NCP. Compared with the water balance, temperature plays a more important role in driving the response pattern characteristics. These findings can provide a reference on how to reduce drought influences on winter wheat yield in the NCP.

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Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2019/2767018 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Xiu Geng ◽

Fang Wang ◽

Wei Ren ◽

Zhixin Hao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Growing Season ◽

Northern China ◽

Series Data ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021–2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021–2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.

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ОЦІНКА ЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ УРОЖАЙНОСТІ ОЗИМОЇ ПШЕНИЦІ ВІД ВПЛИВУ МЕТЕОРОЛОГІЧНИХ ФАКТОРІВ В УМОВАХ ЗОНИ ЛІСОСТЕПУ

Вісник Полтавської державної аграрної академії ◽

10.31210/visnyk2017.1-2.31 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 157-160

Author(s):

Г. П. Довгаль

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Complex Analysis ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Forest Steppe ◽

Agricultural Enterprises ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

Crop Capacity ◽

The Impact

У статті на прикладі типових аграрних підприємств зони Лісостепу здійснено комплексний аналіз кліматичних факторів і продуктивності агроекосистем. У результаті досліджень встановлено кореляційну залежність урожайності озимої пшениці від окремих кліматичних чинників за 20-річний період (1997–2016 рр.). За визначеними математичними моделями були побудовані графіки функцій, які дають змогу прогнозувати рівень урожайності культури за різного впливу кліматичних факторів. Установлено, що для пшениці озимої найвагомішими метеорологічними факторами є кількість опадів травня і червня, а також запаси продуктивної вологи в 20 см шарі ґрунту у квітні та травні. In the article the complex analysis of climatic factors and productivity of agro-ecosystems was made by the example of typical Forest-Steppe zones of agricultural enterprises. The studies found the correlation dependence of crop capacity of winter wheat yield of some climatic factors for the 20-year period (1997–2016). By certain mathematical models the graphics features that enable us to predict the level of productivity of various crops by the impact of climate factors were built. It is found that the most significant meteorological factors for winter wheat are rainfalls in May and June, and productive moisture reserves in the soil layer 20 cm in April and May.

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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Winter Wheat Waterlogging in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2018/3542103 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2018 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yuanyuan Chen ◽

Jingfeng Huang ◽

Xiaodong Song ◽

Ping Gao ◽

Suqin Wan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Loss Rate ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Precipitation Anomaly ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Growth Stages ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

Crop Growth Stages

The waterlogging is a serious agrometeorological disaster caused by excessive soil water during crop growth stages. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are one of the major winter wheat growing regions in China and at the same time they are waterlogging-prone due to their specific climatic conditions. In this study, we integrated a set of tools to analyze the spatiotemporal features of winter wheat waterlogging in this region. We proposed a waterlogging precipitation index (WPI) based on winter wheat yield loss rate and precipitation anomaly percentage and analyzed the frequency, scope, and intensity of winter wheat waterlogging. The results showed that the spring rainfall had a direct and significant effect on winter wheat yield, and the meteorological yield of winter wheat was negatively correlated with precipitation abnormal event from jointing to maturity stages (March to May) across the whole study area. The matching between the waterlogging severity identified by the WPI and historical winter wheat waterlogging records was relatively high. We also discussed the influences of the other nonmeteorological factors, for example, soil texture, topographic and geomorphic conditions, and local disaster-resisting ability, on the extent of waterlogging damage.

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