scholarly journals The ‘Surprise question’ in heart failure: a prospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
pp. bmjspcare-2021-003143
Author(s):  
Valentina Gonzalez-Jaramillo ◽  
Luisa Fernanda Arenas Ochoa ◽  
Clara Saldarriaga ◽  
Alicia Krikorian ◽  
John Jairo Vargas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Ejection Fraction ◽  
Prospective Cohort Study ◽  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection ◽  
Limited Life Expectancy ◽  
Limited Life ◽  
Surprise Question

ObjectiveThe Surprise Question (SQ) is a prognostic screening tool used to identify patients with limited life expectancy. We assessed the SQ’s performance predicting 1-year mortality among patients in ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinics. We determined that the SQ’s performance changes according to sex and other demographic (age) and clinical characteristics, mainly left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classifications.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study in two HF clinics. To assess the performance of the SQ in predicting 1-year mortality, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the positive and negative predictive values. To illustrate if the results of the SQ changes the probability that a patient dies within 1 year, we created Fagan’s nomograms. We report the results from the overall sample and for subgroups according to sex, age, LVEF and NYHA functional class.ResultsWe observed that the SQ showed a sensitivity of 85% identifying ambulatory patients with HF who are in the last year of life. We determined that the SQ’s performance predicting 1-year mortality was similar among women and men. The SQ performed better for patients aged under 70 years, for patients with reduced or mildly reduced ejection fraction, and for patients NYHA class III/IV.ConclusionsWe consider the tool an easy and fast first step to identify patients with HF who might benefit from an advance care planning discussion or a referral to palliative care due to limited life expectancy.

scholarly journals Effects of cardiac rehabilitation on the two-year prognosis of patients with heart failure: a multicentre prospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Adachi ◽  
N Iritani ◽  
K Kamiya ◽  
K Iwatsu ◽  
K Kamisaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Ejection Fraction ◽  
Cardiac Rehabilitation ◽  
Prospective Cohort Study ◽  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
Landmark Analysis ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is a comprehensive disease management program highly recommended by heart failure (HF) guidelines. However, the prognostic effects of outpatient CR are inconsistent among recent meta-analyses which enrolled mainly younger HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). With an aging population, an increased importance of CR has been put on patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Purpose This study aimed to examine the prognostic effects of regularly undergoing CR for 6 months after discharge analysing nationwide cohort data including older population with HFrEF and HFpEF. Methods We analysed 2876 patients who hospitalised for acute HF or worsening chronic HF and capable of walking at discharge in the multicentre prospective cohort study. Frequency of outpatient CR participation of each patient was collected using medical records. We assessed CR frequency within 6 months of discharge since most collaborating hospitals conducted final follow-up examinations at 6 months. The CR group was defined as patients who underwent outpatient CR once or more per week for 6 months after discharge. The main study endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalisation during a 2-year follow-up. We performed a propensity score-matched analysis to compare survival rates between the CR and non-CR groups. Propensity scores for each patient were produced by a logistic regression analysis with the CR group as the dependent variable and 33 potential confounders as independent variables. To evaluate events beyond 6 months, we also conducted landmark analyses at 6 months. Results Of the 2876 enrolled patients, 313 underwent CR for 6 months. After propensity score matching using confounding factors, 626 patients (313 pairs) were included in the survival analysis (median age: 74 years, men: 59.6%, median left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF]: 42%). During 1006.1 person-years of follow-up, 137 patients were rehospitalised due to HF exacerbation, and 50 patients died in the matched cohort. In Cox proportional hazards model (Figure 1), CR was associated with a reduced risk of composite outcomes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48–0.91), all-cause mortality (HR 0.53; 95% CI 0.30–0.95), and HF rehospitalisation (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.47–0.92). A subgroup analysis showed similar CR effects in patients with HFpEF (LVEF ≥50%) and HFrEF (LVEF <40%). However, in a landmark analysis, CR did not reduce the adverse outcomes beyond 6 months after discharge (Figure 2). Conclusions The findings of this study demonstrate the needs that CR should become a standard treatment for HF regardless of HF type and the necessity of periodical follow-up after completing CR program to maintain its prognostic effects. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Figure 1. Prognostic effects of CR Figure 2. Landmark analysis

scholarly journals P0154BLOOD PRESSURE CONTROL IN ELDERLY PATIENTS WITH HEART FAILURE AND MORTALITY RISK: A POPULATION-BASED PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios Douros ◽  
Alice Schneider ◽  
Dörte Huscher ◽  
Natalie Ebert ◽  
Nina Mielke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Prospective Cohort Study ◽  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
Antihypertensive Drugs ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Vulnerable Population ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background and Aims Current guidelines on the management of heart failure (HF) recommend control of blood pressure (BP) in elderly patients. However, the exact treatment goals in this vulnerable population are unclear. Thus, our population-based prospective cohort study aimed to assess whether BP values <140/90 mmHg are associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular (CV) death and all-cause mortality in HF patients ≥70 years. Method The study included participants of the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), all ≥70 years, who were treated with antihypertensive drugs and had a diagnosis of HF (ICD-10 codes: I11.0, I13.0, I13.2, I50.x) at baseline. The study period was from 2009 to 2017. Demographics, lifestyle factors, medications, and comorbidities were assessed in face-to-face interviews and from linked administrative healthcare data. Outcomes were adjudicated using death certificates and hospital discharge notes. Cox proportional hazards models yielded crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CV death and all-cause mortality associated with normalized BP (systolic BP <140 mmHg and diastolic BP <90 mmHg) compared with non-normalized BP (systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg) in patients with HF. In sensitivity analyses we restricted to high-risk HF patients (≥80 years or with previous CV events). We also repeated the analyses in patients without HF to assess a potential effect modification. Results Among 1623 BIS participants treated with antihypertensive drugs at baseline, 544 (33.5%) had a diagnosis of HF. Of those, 255 (46.9%) showed normalized BP and 289 (53.1%) had non-normalized values. Mean age (standard deviation [SD]) was 82.8 (6.8) years (45.4% female). Selected patient characteristics are shown in the Table. Median (interquartile range) duration of follow-up was 6.7 (4.1-7.3) years. Compared with non-normalized BP, normalized BP was associated with a numerically increased risk of CV death (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.90-2.17) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.96-1.71) in patients with HF. The associations were more pronounced or reached statistical significance when restricting to HF patients ≥80 years (CV death: HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.94-2.53 / all-cause mortality: HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.11-2.18) or HF patients with previous CV events (CV death: HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.83-3.29 / all-cause mortality: HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.85-2.07) (Figure). The effect estimates in patients without HF were comparable to those with HF (CV death: HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.78-1.78; p for interaction, 0.695 / all-cause mortality: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.93-1.54; p for interaction, 0.604). Conclusion Our study suggests that normalized BP does not decrease the risk of CV death or all-cause mortality in elderly patients with HF and it could even increase the risk especially in high-risk subgroups. Thus, individualized benefit-risk assessment is required for the pharmacotherapy of HF in this vulnerable population.

scholarly journals Impact of smoking on mortality and life expectancy in Japanese smokers: a prospective cohort study

BMJ ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 345 (oct25 2) ◽  
pp. e7093-e7093 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Sakata ◽  
P. McGale ◽  
E. J. Grant ◽  
K. Ozasa ◽  
R. Peto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Prospective Cohort Study ◽  
Prospective Cohort
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document