scholarly journals Long-term colorectal cancer incidence after adenoma removal and the effects of surveillance on incidence: a multicentre, retrospective, cohort study

Gut ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 1645-1658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda J Cross ◽  
Emma C Robbins ◽  
Kevin Pack ◽  
Iain Stenson ◽  
Paula L Kirby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Time Varying Covariates

ObjectivePostpolypectomy colonoscopy surveillance aims to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). The 2002 UK surveillance guidelines define low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, recommending different strategies for each. Evidence supporting the guidelines is limited. We examined CRC incidence and effects of surveillance on incidence among each risk group.DesignRetrospective study of 33 011 patients who underwent colonoscopy with adenoma removal at 17 UK hospitals, mostly (87%) from 2000 to 2010. Patients were followed up through 2016. Cox regression with time-varying covariates was used to estimate effects of surveillance on CRC incidence adjusted for patient, procedural and polyp characteristics. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) compared incidence with that in the general population.ResultsAfter exclusions, 28 972 patients were available for analysis; 14 401 (50%) were classed as low-risk, 11 852 (41%) as intermediate-risk and 2719 (9%) as high-risk. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, CRC incidence per 100 000 person-years was 140 (95% CI 122 to 162), 221 (195 to 251) and 366 (295 to 453), respectively. CRC incidence was 40%–50% lower with a single surveillance visit than with none: hazard ratios (HRs) were 0.56 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.80), 0.59 (0.43 to 0.81) and 0.49 (0.29 to 0.82) in the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. Compared with the general population, CRC incidence without surveillance was similar among low-risk (SIR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.02) and intermediate-risk (1.16, 0.97 to 1.37) patients, but higher among high-risk patients (1.91, 1.39 to 2.56).ConclusionPostpolypectomy surveillance reduces CRC risk. However, even without surveillance, CRC risk in some low-risk and intermediate-risk patients is no higher than in the general population. These patients could be managed by screening rather than surveillance.

scholarly journals Colorectal cancer risk following polypectomy in a multicentre, retrospective, cohort study: an evaluation of the 2020 UK post-polypectomy surveillance guidelines

Gut ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. gutjnl-2020-323411
Author(s):  
Amanda J Cross ◽  
Emma C Robbins ◽  
Kevin Pack ◽  
Iain Stenson ◽  
Bhavita Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
High Grade Dysplasia ◽  
High Grade ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients

ObjectiveColonoscopy surveillance aims to reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence after polypectomy. The 2020 UK guidelines recommend surveillance at 3 years for ‘high-risk’ patients with ≥2 premalignant polyps (PMPs), of which ≥1 is ‘advanced’ (serrated polyp (or adenoma) ≥10 mm or with (high-grade) dysplasia); ≥5 PMPs; or ≥1 non-pedunculated polyp ≥20 mm; ‘low-risk’ patients without these findings are instead encouraged to participate in population-based CRC screening. We examined the appropriateness of these risk classification criteria and recommendations.DesignRetrospective analysis of patients who underwent colonoscopy and polypectomy mostly between 2000 and 2010 at 17 UK hospitals, followed-up through 2017. We examined CRC incidence by baseline characteristics, risk group and number of surveillance visits using Cox regression, and compared incidence with that in the general population using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs).ResultsAmong 21 318 patients, 368 CRCs occurred during follow-up (median: 10.1 years). Baseline CRC risk factors included age ≥55 years, ≥2 PMPs, adenomas with tubulovillous/villous/unknown histology or high-grade dysplasia, proximal polyps and a baseline visit spanning 2–90 days. Compared with the general population, CRC incidence without surveillance was higher among those with adenomas with high-grade dysplasia (SIR 1.74, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.42) or ≥2 PMPs, of which ≥1 was advanced (1.39, 1.09 to 1.75). For low-risk (71%) and high-risk (29%) patients, SIRs without surveillance were 0.75 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.88) and 1.30 (1.03 to 1.62), respectively; for high-risk patients after first surveillance, the SIR was 1.22 (0.91 to 1.60).ConclusionThese guidelines accurately classify post-polypectomy patients into those at high risk, for whom one surveillance colonoscopy appears appropriate, and those at low risk who can be managed by non-invasive screening.

A Novel Risk Classification Model Predicts Overall Survival and Locoregional Surgery Benefit in Colorectal Patients with Distant Metastasis at the Initial Diagnosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Intermediate Risk

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.

scholarly journals Rituximab Maintenance Benefits Less for Follicular Lymphoma Patients with Low Risk of the Follicular Lymphoma International Index

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3544-3544
Author(s):  
Tingyu Wang ◽  
Ru Li ◽  
Rui Lv ◽  
Ying Yu ◽  
Jiawen Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Follicular Lymphoma ◽  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Rituximab Maintenance ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Background Follicular lymphoma (FL) is an incurable indolent disease with a heterogeneous course. The Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) is the most commonly used prognostic system to predict survival. Rituximab-based immunochemotherapy is now the standard choice for the first-line therapy of FL, followed by rituximab maintenance (RM) in patients with response, which prolongs the progression-free survival (PFS). However, the role of RM in different FLIPI risk groups has never been studied as we know. In this study, we aimed to illustrate the effect of RM in FLIPI risk groups. Methods Newly diagnosed FL patients at our center were enrolled in this analysis. All the patients received the rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy induction regimens. Response assessments were determined according to Lugano's 2014 criteria. Patients who didn't respond to induction were excluded. Categorical variables were compared using Fisher's exact test. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Results From May 2003 to September 2020, 203 newly diagnosed FL were included. 192 patients (95.0%) achieved remission (complete response, CR/partial response, PR) after immunochemotherapy induction, of whom 96 patients continued rituximab maintenance therapies every 3 months for 1-2 years (RM group) (median 7 times，range 4 to 12). 96 patients received no maintenance or fewer than 4 times (control group) (median 0 times, range 0-3). There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics other than the Ann Arbor stage and pathological grade. The RM group patients were more likely to be at low grade (71.8% vs 54.9%, P = 0.042) and advanced stage (90.6% vs 78.7% , P = 0.027) (Table 1). After a median follow-up of 36.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 32.2 to 40.6), median OS and PFS were not reached. The 5-year OS rates and PFS rates were 95.1% (95%CI, 90.2%-100%) and 83.0% (95%CI, 75%-91%)(Fig 1). And RM significantly prolonged the PFS, with 5-year PFS rates 92.2% (95%CI, 85.1%-99.3%) and 70.3%(95%CI, 55%-85.6%) (P = 0.0003) (Fig 2). According to FLIPI risk stratification, patients were classified into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. The 5-year PFS rates were 97.7% (95%CI, 93.2%-100%), 84.7% (95%CI, 70.4%-99%), and 67.8% (95%CI, 49%-86.6%), respectively (Fig 3). For low-risk patients, there was no significant difference in PFS for the RM group vs the control group. However, for both intermediate risk and high-risk patients, PFS was significantly longer in the RM group compared to the control group (P < 0.0001). The PFS rates at 5 years in intermediate-risk patients were 100% and 77.8% (95%CI, 40.8%-92.6%), for the RM group vs control group, high risk 76.4% (95%CI, 54.3%-98.5%), and 54.9% (95%CI, 21.6%-88.2%), respectively (Fig 4). Conclusion Standard rituximab maintenance significantly prolongs progression-free survival in FLIPI intermediate risk and high-risk patients with FL, but not in the FLIPI low risk group. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Wang: AbbVie: Consultancy; Astellas Pharma, Inc.: Research Funding.

scholarly journals Integrated Mutational and Cytogenetic Analysis Identifies New Prognostic Subgroups in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 712-712
Author(s):  
Davide Rossi ◽  
Silvia Rasi ◽  
Valeria Spina ◽  
Alessio Bruscaggin ◽  
Sara Monti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Clonal Evolution ◽  
Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Abstract 712 The identification of NOTCH1, SF3B1, MYD88 and BIRC3 genetic lesions in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) prompts a comprehensive and dynamic prognostic algorithm including gene mutations, chromosomal abnormalities, and their changes during clonal evolution. The study utilized both time-fixed (637 newly diagnosed CLL) and time-dependent (257 CLL provided with 524 sequential samples) approaches. Each sample was investigated for TP53, NOTCH1, SF3B1, MYD88, and BIRC3 mutations by Sanger sequencing and for 17p13, 11q22-q23, 13q14 and BIRC3 deletions and +12 by FISH. Del13q14 and +12 distributed in a mutually exclusive fashion (p<0.0001), and identified three main genetic subgroups: cases harboring del13q14, cases harboring +12 and cases lacking both del13q14 and +12. With the sole exception of the expected association between NOTCH1 mutations and +12 CLL (p=0.0014), the prevalence of the other genetic lesions did not differ among molecular subgroups. FISH abnormalities segregated patients in distinct prognostic groups according to Döhner (Fig 1A). Among new genetic lesions, survival analysis confirmed the independent prognostic value of NOTCH1, SF3B1 and BIRC3 lesions in this study cohort. MYD88 mutations had no prognostic effect (p=0.1728). Recursive partitioning analysis followed by random survival forest validation established the hierarchical order of relevance of the genetic lesions, and created an integrated mutational and cytogenetic (MUCY) model that classified newly diagnosed CLL into four prognostic subgroups (Fig 1B). High risk patients harbored TP53 disruption and/or BIRC3 disruption independent of co-occurring lesions (10-year survival: 29.1%). When the demographic effects of age, sex and year of diagnosis were compensated, the 10-year life expectancy of high risk patients was only 37.7% of that expected in the matched general population (p<0.0001). Intermediate risk patients harbored NOTCH1 and/or SF3B1 mutations and/or del11q22-q23 in the absence of TP53 and BIRC3 abnormalities (10-year OS: 37.1%). The 10-year life expectancy of intermediate risk patients was reduced to 48.5% compared to the matched general population (p<0.0001). The low risk category comprised both patients harboring +12 and patients wild type for all genetic lesions (i.e. normal) (10-year OS: 57.3%), with a 10-year life expectancy of 70.7% compared to the matched general population (p<0.0001). Very low risk patients harbored del13q14 as the sole genetic lesion (10-year OS: 69.3%), with a 10-year life expectancy only slightly (84.2%) and not significantly (p=0.1455) lower than that expected in the matched general population. Multivariate analysis selected the MUCY model as one of the most important independent risk factor of CLL OS (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.18–1.60; p<0.0001; 99% bootstrap selection), along with age (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04–1.07; p<0.0001; 100% bootstrap selection), Rai stage (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.23-1-51; p<0.0001; 100% bootstrap selection) and unmutated IGHV genes (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.17–2.26; p=0.0039; 92% bootstrap selection). Overall, 21.5% (105/488) low risk patients according to the FISH model (del13q14, normal and +12) were reclassified into high risk genetic subgroups by the MUCY model because of the co-occurrence of NOTCH1 (64/488, 13.1%), SF3B1 (35/488, 7.1%), and TP53 (17/488, 3.4%) mutations or BIRC3 disruption (14/488, 2.8%). Consistently, the inclusion of NOTCH1, SF3B1 and BIRC3 lesions in addition to FISH abnormalities significantly improved the model accuracy of OS prediction (c-index: 0.617 vs c-index: 0.642 p<0.0001). At 10 years from diagnosis, 24.5% CLL of the very low and low risk genetic subgroups developed new TP53, NOTCH1, SF3B1, BIRC3 or del11q22-q23 lesions due to clonal evolution, and therefore switched to a higher risk category of the MUCY model. By time-dependent and landmark analysis, the MUCY model retained a statistically significant impact on CLL OS (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.21–1.90; p=0.0003) at any time from diagnosis and independent of its dynamic changes due to clonal evolution. The MUCY model classifies CLL patients into more precise subgroups, advances our understanding of CLL biology, and improves current prognostic algorithms. These findings have relevant implications for the design of clinical trials aimed at assessing the use of mutational profiling to inform therapeutic decisions based on risk stratification. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

A new look at the IDEA classification: Defining novel predictive and prognostic markers in stage III colon cancer.

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 845-845
Author(s):  
Ofer Margalit ◽  
Ronac Mamtani ◽  
Yu-Xiao Yang ◽  
Kim Anna Reiss ◽  
Talia Golan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Stage Iii Colon Cancer ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Doublet Chemotherapy

845 Background: The IDEA pooled analysis compared 3 to 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy for newly defined low- and high-risk stage III colon cancer patients, suggesting low-risk patients may be offered only 3 months of treatment. We aimed to evaluate the benefit of monotherapy vs doublet chemotherapy in low and high IDEA risk groups. Methods: Using the NCDB (2004-2014) we identified 56,728 and 47,557 individuals as low and high IDEA risk groups, respectively. We used multivariate COX regression to evaluate the magnitude of survival differences between IDEA risk groups, according to treatment intensity (doublet vs monotherapy). In a secondary analysis, we examined the predictive value of subgroups of age. Results: Low and high IDEA risk groups derived similar benefit from doublet chemotherapy compared to monotherapy, with hazard ratios of 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.86) and 0.80 (95%CI 0.78-0.83), respectively. The only subpopulations that did not benefit from doublet chemotherapy were low-risk patients above the age of 72 (HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.90-1.01) and high-risk patients above the age of 85 (HR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.77-1.05). Conclusions: IDEA risk classification does not predict benefit from doublet chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer. However, omission of oxaliplatin can be considered in IDEA low-risk patients above the age of 72.

scholarly journals Academic Centers Are Associated with Improved Survival Outcomes in High Risk Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Patients

Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4747-4747
Author(s):  
Daniel A. Ermann ◽  
Victoria Vardell Noble ◽  
Avyakta Kallam ◽  
James O. Armitage
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
B Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Survival Outcomes ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios

Abstract Background: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and is characterized as a heterogenous disease associated with varying outcomes. The International Prognostic Index (IPI) has been the standard for baseline prognostic assessment in these patients. In this study we aimed to determine the impact of treatment facility (academic versus non-academic centers) on overall survival outcomes in DLBCL patients stratified by IPI score risk groups, with a focus on high risk disease as this is associated with poorer outcomes. Methods: The 2018 National Cancer Database (NCDB) was utilized for patients diagnosed with DLBCL between 2004-2015. Patients were then stratified based on IPI risk score from low to high risk. Four risk groups were formed: low (0-1), low-intermediate (2), high-intermediate (3), and high (4-5). Overall survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meyer analysis with bivariate cox proportional hazard ratios to compare survival by facility type (academic or community centers) within these risk groups. Results: A total of 160,137 patients were identified. Of these cases 31.8% were classified as low risk, 21.9% were low-intermediate risk, 22.2% were high-intermediate risk, and 24% were high risk. 59.3% of patients were treated at a community center and 40.7% were treated at academic centers. Treatment at academic centers was associated with a significantly improved overall survival (OS) for each risk category. Median survival (in months) for high risk IPI score DLBCL was 47.9 months in community and 61.1 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for high-intermediate risk score was 48.3 months in community and 87.3 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for low-intermediate score was 90.3 months in community and 122.8 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Median survival for low risk score was 132 months in community and 148 months in academic centers (p<.0001). Hazard ratios for academic center versus community center for high risk, high-intermediate, low-intermediate and low risk are 0.768, 0.71, 0.848 and 0.818 respectively (p<.0001). Conclusions: Facility type is significantly associated with improved survival outcomes across all IPI based risk groups for DLBCL. This benefit is especially significant in higher risk disease where positive outcomes are less common, suggesting treatment at academic centers may be particularly beneficial in these patients. Some of the possible reasons for this difference may include provider experience, increased access to resources, and opportunity for clinical trials. Further investigations into the factors contributing to such disparities should be done to help standardize care and improve outcomes. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals A novel hyperinflammation clinical risk tool, HI5-NEWS2, predicts mortality following early dexamethasone use in an observational cohort of hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R Ardern-Jones ◽  
Hang T.T. Phan ◽  
Florina Borca ◽  
Matthew Stammers ◽  
James Batchelor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Dexamethasone Treatment ◽  
Dexamethasone Therapy ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Anti Inflammatory

Background The success of early dexamethasone therapy for hospitalised COVID-19 cases in treatment of Sars-CoV-2 infection may predominantly reflect its anti-inflammatory action against a hyperinflammation (HI) response. It is likely that there is substantial heterogeneity in HI responses in COVID-19. Methods Blood CRP, ferritin, neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts were scored to assess HI (HI5) and combined with a validated measure of generalised medical deterioration (NEWS2) before day 2. Our primary outcome was 28 day mortality from early treatment with dexamethasone stratified by HI5-NEWS2 status. Findings Of 1265 patients, high risk of HI (high HI5-NEWS2) (n=367, 29.0%) conferred a strikingly increased mortality (36.0% vs 7.8%; Age adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 5.9; 95% CI 3.6-9.8, p<0.001) compared to the low risk group (n= 455, 36.0%). An intermediate risk group (n= 443, 35.0%) also showed significantly higher mortality than the low risk group (17.6% vs 7.8%), aHR 2.2, p=0.005). Early dexamethasone treatment conferred a 50.0% reduction in mortality in the high risk group (36.0% to 18.0%, aHR 0.56, p=0.007). The intermediate risk group showed a trend to reduction in mortality (17.8% to 10.3%, aHR 0.82, p=0.46) which was not observed in the low risk group (7.8% to 9.2%, aHR 1.4, p =0.31). Interpretation The HI5-NEWS2 measured at COVID-19 diagnosis, strongly predicts mortality at 28 days. Significant reduction in mortality with early dexamethasone treatment was only observed in the high risk group. Therefore, the HI5-NEWS2 score could be utilised to stratify randomised clinical trials to test whether intensified anti-inflammatory therapy would further benefit high risk patients and whether alternative approaches would benefit low risk groups. Considering its recognised morbidity, we suggest that early dexamethasone should not be routinely prescribed for HI5-NEWS2 low risk individuals with COVID-19 and clinicians should cautiously assess the risk benefit of this intervention. Funding No external funding.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk

Neurology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 93 (23) ◽  
pp. e2094-e2104 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Ntaios ◽  
Georgios Georgiopoulos ◽  
Kalliopi Perlepe ◽  
Gaia Sirimarco ◽  
Davide Strambo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Embolic Stroke ◽  
Stroke Recurrence ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Risk Patients

ObjectiveA tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.MethodsWe pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration.ResultsIn 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44–3.06) in patients with a score of 0–4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77–5.04) in patients with a score of 5–6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99–11.3) in patients with a score of 7–12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1–2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83–7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58–0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54–0.66), respectively.ConclusionsThe proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

Prospective analysis of 4,474 prostate biopsies to evaluate potential treatment management impact of combined clinical-genomic risk classification.

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 39-39
Author(s):  
Paul L. Nguyen ◽  
Jingbin Zhang ◽  
Kasra Yousefi ◽  
Elai Davicioni ◽  
Robert Benjamin Den ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Change Management ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Prognostic Information ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Genomic Risk ◽  
Clinical Genomic

39 Background: Prior studies suggested integrated clinical-genomic risk grouping can more accurately prognosticate prostate cancer (PCa) outcome than NCCN clinical risk. We evaluated the potential for genomic testing to reclassify patients in a manner that could change management compared to NCCN risk groups. Methods: We evaluated 4,474 consecutive patients with PCa who received the Decipher Biopsy test between 01/2016-08/2017 and had information to determine NCCN risk. Genomic categorizations with the potential to change management were defined as NCCN very low/low to genomic intermediate or high (active surveillance to active treatment), NCCN favorable intermediate to genomic high (radiation therapy [RT] alone to RT plus androgen deprivation therapy [ADT]), NCCN unfavorable intermediate to genomic low (RT + ADT to RT alone), NCCN high risk to genomic low (RT + long term ADT to RT + short term ADT). Results: There were 927 NCCN low-risk, 2,427 intermediate, and 1,120 high-risk patients. Among NCCN low-risk, the incidence of genomic low, intermediate, and high risk was 58.7%, 25.0%, and 16.3% respectively, for NCCN intermediate it was 36.5%, 27.6%, and 35.8%, and for NCCN high risk it was 15.9%, 17.1%, and 67.1%. Management could have been changed in the 41.3% of NCCN low risk patients with intermediate or high genomic risk, 26.7% of favorable intermediate risk patients who had high genomic risk, 32.4% of unfavorable intermediate risk patients with low genomic risk, and 15.9% of high risk patients with low genomic risk. Conclusions: A slight majority (54%) of Decipher Biopsy users have NCCN intermediate-risk disease, likely reflecting a need for further prognostic information to refine recommendations in intermediate risk. Reclassification of NCCN groups by genomic risk was common and an integrated clinical-genomic risk system could have altered treatment recommendations in 41.3% of NCCN low, 26.7% of favorable intermediate, 32.4% of unfavorable intermediate risk, and 15.9% of high risk patients.

scholarly journals Statin initiations and QRISK2 scoring in UK general practice: a THIN database study

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (665) ◽  
pp. e881-e887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Finnikin ◽  
Ronan Ryan ◽  
Tom Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Nice Guidelines ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients

BackgroundStatin prescribing should be based on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but evidence suggests overtreatment of low-risk groups and undertreatment of high-risk groups.AimTo investigate the relationship between CVD risk scoring in primary care and initiation of statins for the primary prevention of CVD, and the effect of changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance in 2014.Design and settingHistorical cohort study using UK electronic primary care records.MethodA cohort was created of statin-naïve patients without CVD between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015. CVD risk scores (calculated using QRISK2 available from 2012) and statin initiations were identified. Rates of CVD risk score recording were calculated and relationships between CVD risk category (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk: <10%, 10–19.9%, and ≥20% 10-year CVD risk) and statin initiation were analysed.ResultsA total of 1.4 million patients were identified from 248 practices. Of these, 151 788 had a recorded CVD risk score since 2012 (10.67%) and 217 860 were initiated on a statin (15.31%). Among patients initiated on a statin after 2012, 27.1% had a documented QRISK2 score: 2.7% of low-risk, 13.8% of intermediate-risk, and 35.0% of high-risk patients were initiated on statins. Statin initiation rates halved from a peak in 2006. After the 2014 NICE guidelines, statin initiation rates declined in high-risk patients but increased in intermediate-risk patients.ConclusionMost patients initiated on statins had no QRISK2 score recorded. Most patients at high risk of CVD were not initiated on statins. One in six statin initiations were to low-risk patients indicating significant overtreatment. Initiations of statins in intermediate-risk patients rose after NICE guidelines were updated in 2014.

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