A Novel Risk Classification Model Predicts Overall Survival and Locoregional Surgery Benefit in Colorectal Patients with Distant Metastasis at the Initial Diagnosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Distant Metastasis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Intermediate Risk

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.

Identification of Eight Surface Molecules with Survival Predictive Power in B Cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (B-CLL): A Proposal for a Scoring System.

Blood ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 104 (11) ◽  
pp. 2797-2797
Author(s):  
Valter Gattei ◽  
Paolo Sonego ◽  
Stefania Russo ◽  
Riccardo Bomben ◽  
Michele Dal Bo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Surface Molecules

Abstract Studies of gene expression profiling of B-CLL cells revealed a phenotype related to experienced B cells, although only a subset of B-CLLs has IgVH mutations. With the aim to identify the immunophenotypic profile associated with a different prognosis, we investigated by flow cytometry the expression of 36 surface molecules (cell-adhesion molecules, integrins, complement activity regulators, myeloid, T and B markers) in 125 B-CLLs, all characterized for IgVH mutations and survival. To recognize the surface molecules with survival predictive power, univariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis was applied to antigen expression values with overall survival as dependent variable. Once identified the antigens whose expression correlated with a z score of ±2.5 (P<0.005) or greater, the maximally selected log-rank statistics were applied to define the optimal cut-off values yielding the best separation of two subgroups with different survival. According to this approach, the following eight antigens were selected (cut-off values in parenthesis): CD55 (30%), CD62L (30%), CD49c (40%), CD11c (20%), CD54 (50%), CD25 (15%), CD79b (65%), CD38 (30%). The first six antigens had negative z score and therefore were identified as favorable prognosticators, while CD79b and CD38 had positive z score, hence were associated with shorter overall survival (negative prognosticators). To build-up a scoring system, we assigned score “1” to each positive prognosticator when its expression was above the designated cut-off (score “0” if below), and score “0” to each negative prognosticator when its expression was above the cut-off (score “1” if below). A total score ranging from 0 to 8 points was therefore obtained in 102/125 cases in which the expression of all the eight markers was available. Three risk groups were identified: i) high-risk (29 cases), score 0–3; ii) intermediate-risk (38 cases), score 4–6; iii) low-risk (35 cases), score 7–8. These three groups differed greatly for survival probabilities (p=5x10–13 by the log-rank test). All patients belonging to the low-risk group were alive throughout the follow-up duration, whereas mean survivals for intermediate- and high-risk groups were 173 months (p=0.032) and 61 months (p=2.0x10–9), respectively. Several relationship between risk groups and other variables was studied: i) patients included in high- and intermediate-risk groups had the same male to female (M:F) ratio (1.4), while the M:F ratio of patients included in low-risk group (group 3) was lower (0.7); ii) Rai’s stage distribution was comparable in the three groups, with the exception of stage “0”, which was significantly less frequent in the high-risk group (p=0.04); iii) if % IgVH mutations (2% cut-off) was checked, mutated to unmutated (M:UM) ratios were 4.8, 2.6 and 0.8 in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively (p=0.006); iv) as compared to high-risk group, low- and intermediate-risk groups were characterized by a higher number of B-CLL cases with a IgVH mutational status consistent with antigen-driven selection (20/24 and 17/26 vs. 7/13). In conclusion, the present study introduces a novel predictive tool based on the expression of eight surface molecules, easily investigable, which can stratifies populations of B-CLL patients in three distinct risk categories.

scholarly journals The ferroptosis and iron-metabolism signature robustly predicts clinical diagnosis, prognosis and immune microenvironment for hepatocellular carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bufu Tang ◽  
Jinyu Zhu ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Kai Fan ◽  
Yang Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Iron Metabolism ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Immune Microenvironment ◽  
Diagnostic Models

Abstract Background In this study, we comprehensively analyzed genes related to ferroptosis and iron metabolism to construct diagnostic and prognostic models and explore the relationship with the immune microenvironment in HCC. Methods Integrated analysis, cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method of 104 ferroptosis- and iron metabolism-related genes and HCC-related RNA sequencing were performed to identify HCC-related ferroptosis and iron metabolism genes. Results Four genes (ABCB6, FLVCR1, SLC48A1 and SLC7A11) were identified to construct prognostic and diagnostic models. Poorer overall survival (OS) was exhibited in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group in both the training cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27) and test cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27). The diagnostic models successfully distinguished HCC from normal samples and proliferative nodule samples. Compared with low-risk groups, high-risk groups had higher TMB; higher fractions of macrophages, follicular helper T cells, memory B cells, and neutrophils; and exhibited higher expression of CD83, B7H3, OX40 and CD134L. As an inducer of ferroptosis, erastin inhibited HCC cell proliferation and progression, and it was showed to affect Th17 cell differentiation and IL-17 signaling pathway through bioinformatics analysis, indicating it a potential agent of cancer immunotherapy. Conclusions The prognostic and diagnostic models based on the four genes indicated superior diagnostic and predictive performance, indicating new possibilities for individualized treatment of HCC patients. Graphical abstract

scholarly journals The ferroptosis and iron-metabolism signature robustly predicts clinical diagnosis, prognosis and immune microenvironment for hepatocellular carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiansong Ji ◽  
Bufu Tang ◽  
Jinyu Zhu ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Kai Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Iron Metabolism ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Immune Microenvironment ◽  
Diagnostic Models

Abstract Background : In this study, we comprehensively analyzed genes related to ferroptosis and iron metabolism to construct diagnostic and prognostic models and explore the relationship with the immune microenvironment in HCC. Methods : Integrated analysis, cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method of 104 ferroptosis- and iron metabolism-related genes and HCC-related RNA sequencing were performed to identify HCC-related ferroptosis and iron metabolism genes. Results : four genes (ABCB6, FLVCR1, SLC48A1 and SLC7A11) were identified to construct prognostic and diagnostic models. Poorer overall survival (OS) was exhibited in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group in both the training cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27) and test cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27). The diagnostic models successfully distinguished HCC from normal samples and proliferative nodule samples. Compared with low-risk groups, high-risk groups had higher TMB; higher fractions of macrophages, follicular helper T cells, memory B cells, and neutrophils; and exhibited higher expression of CD83, B7H3, OX40 and CD134L. As an inducer of ferroptosis, erastin inhibited HCC cell proliferation and progression, and it was showed to affect Th17 cell differentiation and IL-17 signaling pathway through bioinformatics analysis, indicating it a potential agent of cancer immunotherapy. Conclusions: The prognostic and diagnostic models based on the four genes indicated superior diagnostic and predictive performance, indicating new possibilities for individualized treatment of HCC patients.

scholarly journals The ferroptosis and iron-metabolism signature robustly predicts clinical diagnosis, prognosis and immune microenvironment for hepatocellular carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiansong Ji ◽  
Bufu Tang ◽  
Jinyu Zhu ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Kai Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Iron Metabolism ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Immune Microenvironment ◽  
Diagnostic Models

Abstract Background : In this study, we comprehensively analyzed genes related to ferroptosis and iron metabolism to construct diagnostic and prognostic models and explore the relationship with the immune microenvironment in HCC. Methods : Integrated analysis, cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method of 104 ferroptosis- and iron metabolism-related genes and HCC-related RNA sequencing were performed to identify HCC-related ferroptosis and iron metabolism genes. Results : four genes (ABCB6, FLVCR1, SLC48A1 and SLC7A11) were identified to construct prognostic and diagnostic models. Poorer overall survival (OS) was exhibited in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group in both the training cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27) and test cohort (P < 0.001, HR = 0.27). The diagnostic models successfully distinguished HCC from normal samples and proliferative nodule samples. Compared with low-risk groups, high-risk groups had higher TMB; higher fractions of macrophages, follicular helper T cells, memory B cells, and neutrophils; and exhibited higher expression of CD83, B7H3, OX40 and CD134L. As an inducer of ferroptosis, erastin inhibited HCC cell proliferation and progression, and it was showed to affect Th17 cell differentiation and IL-17 signaling pathway through bioinformatics analysis, indicating it a potential agent of cancer immunotherapy. Conclusions: The prognostic and diagnostic models based on the four genes indicated superior diagnostic and predictive performance, indicating new possibilities for individualized treatment of HCC patients.

scholarly journals Comprehensive analysis of the significance of ferroptosis-related genes in the prognosis and immunotherapy of oral squamous cell carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junhao Yin ◽  
Xiaoli Zeng ◽  
Zexin Ai ◽  
Miao Yu ◽  
Yang'ou Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Tumor Microenvironment ◽  
Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Regression Analyses

Abstract Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a life-threatening disease that emerged as a major international health concern, associated with poor prognosis and the absence of specific biomarkers. Studies have shown that the ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) can be used as tumor prognostic markers. However, FRGs’ prognostic value in OSCC needs further exploration. Our aim was to construct a novel FRG signature for overall survival (OS) prediction in OSCC patients and explore its role in immunotherapy.Methods: In our study, gene expression profile and clinical data of OSCC patients were collected from a public domain. FRGs were available from the FerrDb database. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to construct a multigene signature. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methods were utilized to test the effectiveness of the FRG signature. A differential gene expression analysis was performed by the limma R package, followed by functional enrichment analyses. CIBERSORT was applied to analyze the tumor microenvironment (TME). Finally, the expression of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) and immune checkpoint molecules were analyzed to confirm the sensitivity of immunotherapy.Results: A total of 103 FRGs, expressed in OSCC (FRGs-OSCC), were identified from the two datasets by the Venn analysis. The Cox regression analysis identified 5 FRGs-OSCC that were associated with overall survival (all P < 0.01). The FRGs-OSCC risk model was established to classify patients into high risk and low risk groups. Compared with the low risk group, the survival time of the high-risk group was significantly reduced (P < 0.001). According to the multivariate Cox regression analyses, the risk score acted as an independent predictor for OS (HR > 1, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the FRGs-OSCC risk predictive model was confirmed by ROC curve analysis. The results of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) showed significant enrichment of immune-related pathways, and a difference in tumor microenvironment between the two groups. The low risk group had the characteristics of higher expression of HLA and immune checkpoints (IDO1, LAG3, PDCD1 and TIGHT), a lower tumor purity and a higher infiltration of immune cells, indicating a more sensitive response to immunotherapy.Conclusions: The novel FRGs-OSCC risk score system can be used to predict OSCC prognosis. Ferroptosis targeting may be a therapeutic option for OSCC.

scholarly journals Identification of an Immune-Related Risk Signature Correlates With Immunophenotype and Predicts Anti-PD-L1 Efficacy of Urothelial Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengju Li ◽  
Shihui Hao ◽  
Yongkang Ye ◽  
Jinhuan Wei ◽  
Yiming Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Urothelial Cancer ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Metastatic Urothelial Cancer

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment has been used to treat advanced urothelial cancer. Molecular markers might improve risk stratification and prediction of ICI benefit for urothelial cancer patients. We analyzed 406 cases of bladder urothelial cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data set and identified 161 messenger RNAs (mRNAs) as differentially expressed immunity genes (DEIGs). Using the LASSO Cox regression model, an eight-mRNA-based risk signature was built. We validated the prognostic and predictive accuracy of this immune-related risk signature in 348 metastatic urothelial cancer (mUC) samples treated with anti-PD-L1 (atezolizumab) from IMvigor210. We built an immune-related risk signature based on the eight mRNAs: ANXA1, IL22, IL9R, KLRK1, LRP1, NRG3, SEMA6D, and STAP2. The eight-mRNA-based risk signature successfully categorizes patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Overall survival was significantly different between these groups, regardless if the initial TCGA training set, the internal TCGA testing set, all TCGA set, or the ICI treatment set. The hazard ratio (HR) of the high-risk group to the low-risk group was 3.65 (p &lt; 0.0001), 2.56 (p &lt; 0.0001), 3.36 (p &lt; 0.0001), and 2.42 (p = 0.0009). The risk signature was an independent prognostic factor for prediction survival. Moreover, the risk signature was related to immunity characteristics. In different tumor mutational burden (TMB) subgroups, it successfully categorizes patients into high-risk and low-risk groups, with significant differences of clinical outcome. Our eight-mRNA-based risk signature is a stable biomarker for urothelial cancer and might be able to predict which patients benefit from ICI treatment. It might play a role in precision individualized immunotherapy.

scholarly journals An autophagy-related long non-coding RNA signature for patients with colorectal cancer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongyan Zhao ◽  
Xizhen Sun ◽  
Sidan Long ◽  
Shukun Yao
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Expression Profiles ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis

AbstractAimLong non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been identified to regulate cancers by controlling the process of autophagy and by mediating the post-transcriptional and transcriptional regulation of autophagy-related genes. This study aimed to investigate the potential prognostic role of autophagy-associated lncRNAs in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.MethodsLncRNA expression profiles and the corresponding clinical information of CRC patients were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Based on the TCGA dataset, autophagy-related lncRNAs were identified by Pearson correlation test. Univariate Cox regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis (LASSO) Cox regression model were performed to construct the prognostic gene signature. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used to further clarify the underlying molecular mechanisms.ResultsWe obtained 210 autophagy-related genes from the whole dataset and found 1187 lncRNAs that were correlated with the autophagy-related genes. Using Univariate and LASSO Cox regression analyses, eight lncRNAs were screened to establish an eight-lncRNA signature, based on which patients were divided into the low-risk and high-risk group. Patients’ overall survival was found to be significantly worse in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (log-rank p = 2.731E-06). ROC analysis showed that this signature had better prognostic accuracy than TNM stage, as indicated by the area under the curve. Furthermore, GSEA demonstrated that this signature was involved in many cancer-related pathways, including TGF-β, p53, mTOR and WNT signaling pathway.ConclusionsOur study constructed a novel signature from eight autophagy-related lncRNAs to predict the overall survival of CRC, which could assistant clinicians in making individualized treatment.

Revised Neuroblastoma Risk Classification System: A Report From the Children's Oncology Group

2021 ◽  
pp. JCO.21.00278
Author(s):  
Meredith S. Irwin ◽  
Arlene Naranjo ◽  
Fan F. Zhang ◽  
Susan L. Cohn ◽  
Wendy B. London ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Staging System ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Oncology Group ◽  
Event Free Survival ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Pathology Classification

PURPOSE Treatment planning for children with neuroblastoma requires accurate assessment of prognosis. The most recent Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system used tumor stage as defined by the International Neuroblastoma Staging System. Here, we validate a revised classifier using the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Staging System (INRGSS) and incorporate segmental chromosome aberrations (SCA) as an additional genomic biomarker. METHODS Newly diagnosed patients enrolled on the COG neuroblastoma biology study ANBL00B1 between 2007 and 2017 with known age, International Neuroblastoma Staging System, and INRGSS stage were identified (N = 4,832). Tumor MYCN status, ploidy, SCA status (1p and 11q), and International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification histology were determined centrally. Survival analyses were performed for combinations of prognostic factors used in COG risk classification according to the prior version 1, and to validate a revised algorithm (version 2). RESULTS Most patients with locoregional tumors had excellent outcomes except for those with image-defined risk factors (INRGSS L2) with MYCN amplification (5-year event-free survival and overall survival: 76.3% ± 5.8% and 79.9% ± 5.5%, respectively) or patients age ≥ 18 months with L2 MYCN nonamplified tumors with unfavorable International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification histology (72.7% ± 5.4% and 82.4% ± 4.6%), which includes the majority of L2 patients with SCA. For patients with stage M (metastatic) and MS (metastatic, special) disease, genomic biomarkers affected risk group assignment for those < 12 months ( MYCN) or 12-18 months ( MYCN, histology, ploidy, and SCA) of age. In a retrospective analysis of patient outcome, the 5-year event-free survival and overall survival using COG version 1 were low-risk: 89.4% ± 1.1% and 97.9% ± 0.5%; intermediate-risk: 86.1% ± 1.3% and 94.9% ± 0.8%; high-risk: 50.8% ± 1.4% and 61.9% ± 1.3%; and using COG version 2 were low-risk: 90.7% ± 1.1% and 97.9% ± 0.5%; intermediate-risk: 85.1% ± 1.4% and 95.8% ± 0.8%; high-risk: 51.2% ± 1.4% and 62.5% ± 1.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION A revised 2021 COG neuroblastoma risk classifier (version 2) that uses the INRGSS and incorporates SCAs has been adopted to prospectively define COG clinical trial eligibility and treatment assignment.

An Autophagy-related Long Non-coding RNA Signature for Breast Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Jiang ◽  
Chuyan Wu ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Ke Wei ◽  
Jimei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Expression Profiles ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Optimal Cutoff ◽  
Non Coding Rna ◽  
Long Non Coding Rna

Background: The most prevalent malignant tumor in women is breast cancer (BC). Autophagic therapies have been identified for their contribution in BC cell death. Therefore, the potential prognostic role of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) related to autophagy in patients with BC was examined. Methods: The lncRNAs expression profiles were derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Throughout univariate Cox regression and multivariate Cox regression test, lncRNA with BC prognosis have been differentially presented. We then defined the optimal cutoff point between high and low-risk groups. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to test this signature. In order to examine possible signaling mechanisms linked to these lncRNAs, the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) has been carried out. Results: Based on the lncRNA expression profiles for BC, a 9 lncRNA signature associated with autophagy was developed. The optimal cutoff value for high-risk and low-risk groups was used. The high-risk group had less survival time than the low-risk group. The result of this lncRNA signature was highly sensitive and precise. GSEA study found that the gene sets have been greatly enriched in many cancer pathways. Conclusions: Our signature of 9 lncRNAs related to autophagy has prognostic value for BC, and these lncRNAs related to autophagy may play an important role in BC biology.

The Combination of SKY92 and ISS Provides a Powerful Tool to Identify Both High Risk and Low Risk Multiple Myeloma Cases, Validation in Two Independent Cohorts

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 2970-2970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin van Vliet ◽  
Joske Ubels ◽  
Leonie de Best ◽  
Erik van Beers ◽  
Pieter Sonneveld
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Prognostic Markers ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Standard Risk

Abstract Introduction Multiple Myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease with a strong need for robust markers for prognosis. Frequently occurring chromosomal abnormalities, such as t(4;14), gain(1q), and del(17p) etc. have some prognostic power, but lack robustness across different cohorts. Alternatively, gene expression profiling (GEP) studies have developed specific high risk signatures such as the SKY92 (EMC92, Kuiper et al. Leukemia 2012), which has shown to be a robust prognostic factor across five different clinical datasets. Moreover, studies comparing prognostic markers have indicated that the SKY92 signature outperforms all other markers for identifying high risk patients, both in single and multivariate analyses. Similarly, when assessing the prognostic value of combinations of various prognostic markers, the SKY92 combined with ISS was the top performer, and also enables detection of a low risk group (Kuiper et al. ASH 2014). Here, we present a further validation of the low and high risk groups identified by the SKY92 signature in combination with ISS on two additional cohorts of patients with diverse treatment backgrounds, containing newly diagnosed, previously treated, and relapsed/refractory MM patients. Materials and Methods The SKY92 signature was applied to two independent datasets. Firstly, the dataset from the Total Therapy 6 (TT6) trial, which is a phase 2 trial for symptomatic MM patients who have received 1 or more prior lines of treatment. The TT6 treatment regime consists of VTD-PACE induction, double transplant with Melphalan + VRD-PACE, followed by alternating VRD/VMD maintenance. Affymetrix HG-U133 Plus 2.0 chips were performed at baseline for n=55 patients, and OS was made available previously (Gene Expression Omnibus identifier: GSE57317). However, ISS was not available for this dataset. Secondly, a dataset of patients enrolled at two hospitals in the Czech Republic, and one in Slovakia (Kryukov et al. Leuk&Lymph 2013). Patients of all ages, and from first line up to seventh line of treatment were included (treatments incl Bort, Len, Dex). For n=73 patients Affymetrix Human Gene ST 1.0 array, OS (n=66), and ISS (n=58) was made available previously (ArrayExpress accession number: E-MTAB-1038). Both datasets were processed from .CEL files by MAS5 (TT6), and RMA (Czech), followed by mean variance normalization per probeset across the patients. The SKY92 was applied as previously described (Kuiper et al. Leukemia 2012), and identifies a High Risk and Standard Risk group. In conjunction with ISS, the SKY92 Standard Risk group is then further stratified into low and intermediate risk groups (Kuiper et al. ASH 2014). Kaplan-Meier plots were created, and the Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate Hazard Ratios (HR), and associated 1-sided p-values that assess whether the SKY92 High Risk group has worse survival than SKY92 Standard Risk group (i.e. HR>1). Results Figure 1 shows the Kaplan Meier plots of the SKY92 High Risk and Standard Risk groups on the TT6 and Czech cohorts. On the TT6 dataset, the SKY92 signature identifies 11 out of 55 patients (20%) as High Risk. In both datasets, the SKY92 High Risk group has significantly worse overall survival, HR=10.3, p=7.4 * 10-6 (TT6), and HR=2.6, p=2.2 * 10-2 (Czech). In addition, the combination of SKY92 with ISS on the Czech dataset identifies a low risk group of 14 out of 61 patients (23%), with a five year overall survival estimate of 100% versus 28.7% in the SKY92 High Risk group (HR=inf). Robustness of the SKY92 signature is further demonstrated by the fact that it validates on both datasets, despite different microarray platforms being used. Conclusions The SKY92 high risk signature has been successfully validated on two independent datasets generated using different microarray platforms. In addition, on the Czech data, the low risk group (SKY92 Standard Risk combined with ISS 1) has been successfully validated. Together, this signifies the robust nature of the SKY92 signature for high and low risk prediction, across treatments, and with applicability in newly diagnosed, treated, and relapsed/refractory MM patients. Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier plots showing a significantly poorer overall survival in patients identified as SKY92 High Risk (red curves), relative to SKY92 Standard Risk, on both the TT6 (left), and Czech (middle) datasets, as well as a low risk group by SKY92 & ISS1 on the Czech dataset (green curve, right). Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier plots showing a significantly poorer overall survival in patients identified as SKY92 High Risk (red curves), relative to SKY92 Standard Risk, on both the TT6 (left), and Czech (middle) datasets, as well as a low risk group by SKY92 & ISS1 on the Czech dataset (green curve, right). Disclosures van Vliet: SkylineDx: Employment. Ubels:SkylineDx: Employment. de Best:SkylineDx: Employment. van Beers:SkylineDx: Employment. Sonneveld:Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Amgen: Honoraria, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Research Funding; SkylineDx: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Honoraria, Research Funding.

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