Modeling shell disease in American lobster (Homarus americanus) as individual-based health trajectories

The emergence of epizootic shell disease in American lobsters (Homarus americanus) has presented many new challenges to understanding the interface between disease and the management of the lobster fishery. While a variety of the potentially causative and correlative factors for shell disease have been explored, a clear etiological agent remains elusive. The recency of this disease and the lack of identifiable causal agents have hindered the development of conceptual models that can yield testable predictions. Here, a model originally developed for human–parasite interactions was applied to lobster shell disease as a means to unify the broad experimental and field observations. The model is a graphical means to understand the onset and severity of shell disease and is a function of the length of the molt cycle and the rate of the decrease of health both before and after lesion formation as a function of bacterial abundance and pathogenicity. The model also accounts for shell hardening and passive and active portals of entry for the bacteria. The timing for a conceptual understanding of the epidemiology of shell disease is critical because its prevalence is increasing in key fishing areas. Ideally, such a model will help researchers create hypothesis-driven predictive experiments from which we can further our understanding of an important disease to a critical member of the Gulf of Maine ecosystem.