Review of prediction methods for breakup ice jams

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen D White
Keyword(s):  
Open Water ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Flood Warning

Breakup ice jams often occur suddenly, with little warning. Severe flooding or ice-related damage can result from rapid rises in upstream water levels associated with breakup ice jams. Breakup jam prediction methods that can be used to increase response time are desirable to minimize flood damage, including potential loss of life. A variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models exist to predict open-water flooding, whether resulting from rainfall, snowmelt, or catastrophic events such as dam breaches. However, breakup ice jams result from a complex series of physical processes that cannot currently be described with analytical or deterministic models, hindering the development of prediction methods. Those which do exist are highly site specific and range from simple empirical models to an artificial intelligence formulation. To date, no one model exhibits a clear advantage over the others. This paper provides examples of existing breakup ice jam prediction methods and discusses their potential advantages and disadvantages.Key words: ice jam, breakup ice jam, flood prediction, flood warning, ice jam mitigation.

Analysis of breakup and ice jams on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. D. Andres ◽  
P. F. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Internal Friction ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Produce Water ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Clearwater River

During breakup, severe ice jams form at Fort McMurray, Alberta because of the dramatic change in the character of the Athabasca River at that location. Such jams, which produce water levels in the order of 10 m above the normal open water stage, were documented in 1977, 1978, and 1979. Additional channel surveys and improved estimates of discharge made since the initial analysis have redefined the ice jam characteristics. The Manning roughness coefficient of the underside of the ice jams was found to be 0.072. The new discharge estimates, which were up to twice those previously reported, result in a calculated coefficient of internal friction of 0.8–2.7. This is 30–100% greater than previous estimates, but still similar to values determined for ice jams at other locations.Even with the variation in the coefficient of internal friction, the river stage due to an ice jam at Fort McMurray could be computed with reasonable accuracy for a range of given discharges. If jams form downstream of the mouth of the Clearwater River at discharges greater than 800 m3/s (considerably less than the 1-in-2-year open water flood), flooding will occur within lower Fort McMurray. Unfortunately, the frequency of such an event is unknown because the probabilities of both the discharge being exceeded and the jam occurrence cannot be defined. Key words: ice, breakup, ice jam, ice roughness, flooding, hydraulics.

Predicting Ice Jams With Discriminant Function Analysis

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen D. White ◽  
Steven F. Daly
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Function ◽  
Discriminant Function Analysis ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Variable Threshold ◽  
Ice Jam

Breakup ice jam prediction methods are desirable to provide early warning and allow rapid, effective ice jam mitigation due to the suddenness with which breakup jams and related flooding occur. However, prediction models are limited to empirical or stochastic models rather than deterministic models because of the difficulties in using deterministic models to forecast the formation of breakup ice jams. Existing ice jam prediction methods range from empirical single-variable threshold-type analyses to statistical methods such as logistic regression and discriminant function analysis. Empirical methods are highly site-specific and tend to over predict jam occurrence. In addition, existing models do not provide quantitative information regarding the risk of errors in prediction, which limits their usefulness in emergency situations. In this paper, existing methods are reviewed and a three-step process to predict breakup ice jams is proposed.

Ice jam mitigation

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold S. Belore ◽  
Brian C. Burrell ◽  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In Canada, flooding due to the rise in water levels upstream of an ice jam, or the temporary exceedance of the flow and ice-carrying capacity of a channel upon release of an ice jam, has resulted in the loss of human life and extensive economic losses. Ice jam mitigation is a component of river ice management which includes all activities carried out to prevent or remove ice jams, or to reduce the damages that may result from an ice jam event. This paper presents a brief overview of measures to mitigate the damaging effects of ice jams and contains a discussion on their application to Canadian rivers. Key words: controlled ice breakup, flood control, ice jams, ice management, river ice.

scholarly journals Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Models for Ice-Jam Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemehalsadat Madaeni ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Rachid Lhissou ◽  
Saeid Homayuni ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Time Series Classification ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract. In cold regions, ice-jam events result in severe flooding due to a rapid rise in water levels upstream of the jam. These floods threaten human safety and damage properties and infrastructures as the floods resulting from ice-jams are sudden. Hence, the ice-jam prediction tools can give an early warning to increase response time and minimize the possible corresponding damages. However, the ice-jam prediction has always been a challenging problem as there is no analytical method available for this purpose. Nonetheless, ice jams form when some hydro-meteorological conditions happen, a few hours to a few days before the event. The ice-jam prediction problem can be considered as a binary multivariate time-series classification. Deep learning techniques have been successfully applied for time-series classification in many fields such as finance, engineering, weather forecasting, and medicine. In this research, we successfully applied CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks for ice-jam prediction for all the rivers in Quebec. The results show that the CN-LSTM model yields the best results in the validation and generalization with F1 scores of 0.82 and 0.91, respectively. This demonstrates that CNN and LSTM models are complementary, and a combination of them further improves classification.

scholarly journals MOGREPS-UK Convection-Permitting Ensemble Products for Surface Water Flood Forecasting: Rationale and First Results

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1383-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Golding ◽  
Nigel Roberts ◽  
Giovanni Leoncini ◽  
Ken Mylne ◽  
Richard Swinbank
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
First Results

ABSTRACT Flooding is one of the costliest hazards in the United Kingdom. A large part of the annual flood damage is caused by surface water flooding that is a direct result of intense rainfall. Traditional catchment-based approaches to flood prediction are not applicable for surface water floods. However, given sufficiently accurate forecasts of rainfall intensity, with sufficient lead time, actions can be taken to reduce their impact. These actions require reliable information about severity and areas at risk that is clear and easily interpreted. The accuracy requirements, in particular, are very challenging, as they relate to prediction of intensities that occur only infrequently and that typically affect only small areas. In this paper, forecasts of intense rainfall from a new convection-permitting ensemble prediction system are evaluated using radar observations of intense rain and surface water flooding reports. An urban flooding case that occurred in Edinburgh in 2011 is first investigated and then a broader look is taken at performance through a 3-month period during the London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012. Conclusions are drawn about the value of the ensemble and the particular means of presenting the forecasts, and areas requiring further work are highlighted.

Phreatic Water Surface Profiles along Ice Jams – An Experimental Study

1996 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raafat G. Saadé ◽  
Semaan Sarraf
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Surface Profile ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Phreatic Water ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Water Surface Profile ◽  
Ice Floes

In Northern Regions, the formation of ice jams along many rivers is a common phenomena. These ice jams may occur during the freeze-up and more importantly during the spring break-up period. Ice jams in general have considerable effects on the water levels because they alter the water surface profile for stretches of tens of kilometers along the rivers. As a consequence, water levels increase significantly upstream of the ice jam and result in the flooding of towns situated along the river banks. Knowledge of the water levels within an ice jam can be used to estimate many parameters that are difficult to measure and observe. Examples of such parameters are the local and global ice jam resistance to the flow, and forces acting within an ice jam. While ice jams are notorious causes of serious problems in hydraulic engineering, very little engineering methodology exists to deal with such problems. In this paper, the results of a laboratory study aimed at investigating the development of the water surface profile along an ice jam that is lodged in place, are analyzed and presented. A rectangular flume with a horizontal bed was used for the experiments. Twelve experiments carried out under different geometrical, hydrodynamic and ice conditions, were analysed. A simulated floating ice cover was used to arrest the downstream transport of the ice floes, forming the ice jams. The experiments indicate two types of ice jams, those that are floating and others that are lodged at one or more locations along their length. The phreatic water level along a floating ice jam is up to 0.92 the ice jam thickness. This is not true when an ice jam is lodged in place. Different experiments have shown that the water surface profile along a lodged ice jam follows similar tendencies regardless of the geometry, ice floe size distribution and hydrodynamic conditions. It was found that the phreatic water level varies linearly from the trailing edge of the ice jam up to approximately 90% of its length downstream. Towards the remaining part of the jam's length the water level follows a cubic polynomial line.

Ice jam release surges, ice runs, and breaking fronts: field measurements, physical descriptions, and research needs

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Jasek
Keyword(s):  
Unsteady Flow ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Water Ice ◽  
Flow Models ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Break Up

Surges or flood waves made up of ice and water resulting from the release of ice jams can be destructive to life and property and are also one of the more complicated problems in river ice engineering. The interaction between the ice mechanics and unsteady flow leads to results that are often unpredictable with open water unsteady flow models. There are considerable differences of opinion on the degree of significance of this water–ice interaction. There have also been recent developments in two-phase unsteady flow modelling which are capable of handling these complicated situations. It is the aim of this paper to present both quantitative data and qualitative observations on ice runs and breaking fronts to provide insight to the physical processes involved as and possible sources of model calibration data.Key words: ice jam, surge, unsteady flow, ice run, ice jam release, breaking front, break-up, breakup, break-up front.

Surges from ice jam releases: a case study

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 276-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Beltaos ◽  
B. G. Krishnappan
Keyword(s):  
Water Flow ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
The Reformation ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Ice Water

Accounts by witnesses of spring ice breakup in rivers often mention violent ice runs with extreme water speeds and rapidly rising water levels. Such events are believed to follow the release of major ice jams. To gain preliminary understanding of this problem, an attempt is made to reconstruct a partially documented ice jam release reported recently by others. The equations of the ice–water flow that occurs after the release of an ice jam are formulated. It is shown that the problem may be approximately treated as a one-dimensional, unsteady, water-only flow of total depth identical to that of the ice–water flow, and average velocity. The retarding effect of the frequently encountered intact ice cover below the jam is considered implicitly, that is, by adjusting the friction factor so as to make the predicted and observed downstream stages equal. The effects of jam length are considered next by assuming longer jams of the same maximum water depth. The duration of the surging velocities increases with jam length and so does the peak stage. Less than 2 h after the jam release the surge was arrested and a new jam formed, causing further stage increases. Present capabilities of modelling the reformation process are discussed and the major unknowns identified.

High-accuracy mapping of inundations induced by ice jams: a case study from Iceland

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 412-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Pagneux ◽  
Árni Snorrason
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Hydraulic Modelling ◽  
Photo Interpretation ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Model

Hydraulic modelling is widely used for deriving flood hazard maps featuring depth of flooding and flow velocity from discharge scenarios. Due to uncertainties about flow conditions or inaccurate terrain models, flood hazards maps obtained from hydraulic modelling may be of limited relevance and accuracy. Hydraulic modelling is particularly challenging in Arctic regions, where ice jams lead to flooding in areas that would not be subjected to inundation under open-water conditions. As numerical models of ice jam processes require information that may be difficult and expensive to collect, an alternative approach based on the photo interpretation of documented historical events is presented here. Orthophotographs and a digital elevation model at high resolution are used to support the photo interpretation process. Tested in an Icelandic watershed prone to ice jam floods, reconstructions provide locally unprecedented and robust information on the extent and depth of flooding of inundations induced by ice jams.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Uncertainty of Flash Flood Prediction Using the RRI Model in Mountainous Rivers

10.29007/n72w ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosuke Nakamura ◽  
Koji Ikeuchi ◽  
Shiori Abe ◽  
Toshio Koike ◽  
Shinji Egashira
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Level 2

In recent years, flood damage caused by flash floods in mountainous rivers has been frequently reported in Japan. In order to ensure a sufficient lead time for safe evacuation, it is necessary to predict river water levels in real time utilizing a hydrological model. In this study, we conducted flood prediction using the RRI model and rainfall forecasted for the next 6 hours in the Kagetsu River basin (136.1 km2) in July 2017, evaluated the uncertainty regarding the prediction, and illustrated the results using a box-plot. The evaluation found that the mean error of the forecasted water level was approximately - 0.3 m in the prediction for the initial 3 hours and -0.97 m at the 6th hour. Also, the study investigated the possibility of correcting water levels forecasted by clarifying an uncertainty distribution. As a result, the water level forecasted was found to be underestimated because it was predicted to rise as high as Warning Level 2, while the water level forecasted with bias correction was predicted to reach Warning Level 4. Moreover, the lead time was estimated to prolong by 2 hours. Overall, the study suggested that flood forecasting can be improved by considering the uncertainty involved in prediction.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document