Ice jam flood forecasting: Hay River, N.W.T.

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Stanley ◽  
R. Gerard
Keyword(s):  
First Generation ◽  
High Water ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
First Line ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
The Town ◽  
Gauging Station

Much of the town of Hay River, N.W.T., is located on the low-lying land of the Hay River delta, and is subject to severe ice jam floods every decade or so. As a first line of defence against these floods, it was proposed that an ice jam flood forecast procedure be developed. The major components of the study included a review of historical flood data, resident interviews, field surveys, and observations of the delta ice regime. It was found that a 1–2 day forecast of discharge in Hay River can be directly determined from discharges measured at a Water Survey of Canada gauging station upstream. From this and from an understanding of the breakup ice regime developed from the study as well as the water level–discharge relations determined for ice jams at three locations in the delta, it was possible to develop a first-generation ice jam flood forecasting procedure that gave a 1–2 day warning of high water at each of the three locations. The procedure was evaluated against the breakup events of 1988 and 1989 with reasonable success. The development and application of this procedure is described in the paper. Key words: rivers, floods, ice jams, forecasting.

Incorporating the effects of upstream ice jam releases in the prediction of flood levels in the Hay River delta, Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (8) ◽  
pp. 643-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael De Coste ◽  
Yuntong She ◽  
Julia Blackburn
Keyword(s):  
River Delta ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Release Wave ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Great Slave Lake ◽  
Extreme Flooding ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
The Town

The town of Hay River, located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, is vulnerable to ice jam flooding occurring in the adjacent Hay River delta. The most extreme flooding events have occurred when ice jams in the channels of the delta were pushed downstream towards the mouth at Great Slave Lake. This movement has been linked to incoming waves from ice jam release in the upstream reaches of the Hay River. This study incorporated the effect of an upstream ice jam release wave into the prediction of ice jam caused flood levels in the delta by integrating three one-dimensional models. The method was validated with observed breakup events and then used to simulate various combinations of ice and water conditions in the river and the delta. Multiple linear regression analyses were applied to the results to develop a prediction tool for assessing ice jam flood risk.

Ice-jam floods modeling in frameworks of intelligent system for river monitoring

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inna Krylenko ◽  
Andrey Alabyan ◽  
Viacheslav Zelentsov ◽  
Vitaly Belikov ◽  
Alexey Sazonov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Adequate Model ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
The City

<p>This paper presents the research results related to the development of an intelligent system for monitoring and assessing the state of natural systems (PROSTOR), which was tested in the area from the city of Velikiy Ustyug to the city of Kotlas on the Northern Dvina River. It is one of the most vulnerable places in Russia to spring snow-melt and ice-jams induced floods.</p><p>The proposed automated flood forecasting technology is based on the concept of a multi-model description of complex natural objects implementing a mechanism of the selection and adaptation of parameters of the most adequate model for each specific situation. The computational core of PROSTOR is the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model STREAM_2D and its newer version STREAM_2D_CUDA based on the numerical solution of the shallow water equations with discontinuous bottom. Additional hydraulic resistance due to the ice roughness and decrease in the flow cross-section due to ice-caused congestion were taken into account for modeling the ice-jams water levels. The forecasting capabilities of the system are secured by the prediction of water levels at the gauging stations located upstream from Velikiy Ustyug basing either on neural networks, or by means of linking with the runoff formation model ECOMAG and using prognostic meteorological information.</p><p>The system was built with the use of a service-oriented architecture, that provides flexible interaction between software modules, implementing hydrodynamic and hydrological models; modules of collecting and processing of heterogeneous data, including data from gauging stations and remote sensing data; control modules, etc. All system components are realized as web services and can be geographically distributed and localized in various organizations, cities and countries. All results of the system implementation, including the results of flooded zones calculations, flow parameters there, as well as satellite images are available via the geoportal.</p><p>Models parameters were justified on the base of numerical experiments and simulations of the floods of 1980-2016 period, including more than 18 significant cases of ice-jamming. Grouping of model parameters according to the height of the ice-jam induced water levels suggested for the implementation of the hydrodynamic model incorporated into intelligent information system of river floods monitoring. Operational flood forecasting mode of the system was tested during 2017 – 2019 years under support of Russian Science Foundation project № 17-11-01254.</p>

Probability analysis of historical ice jam flood data for a complex reach: a case study

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 875-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Stanley ◽  
R. Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
High Water ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Flood Zone ◽  
Systematic Collection

Two obstacles are encountered in the probability analysis of ice jam floods: the first is the general lack of long-term hydrometric records in cold regions; the second, which compounds the first, is that the few records that are available for ice jam floods are difficult to transpose to even nearby sites. This means there must be heavy reliance placed on local historical data.A good illustration of the effort required and the rewards obtained in collecting and analyzing such data is provided by the situation at Hay River, N.W.T. The flood population at this site is completely dominated by ice jam floods for which there is no standard hydrometric data.This paper describes the approach used in the collection and analysis of the historical data at this site to define the flood probability distribution. A comparison of the resulting probability distribution with the previously designated flood zone, which was defined simply on the basis of the historical high water level, reveals the risk involved in designation based on the latter approach and demonstrates that even in the complex and apparently data-limited situation at Hay River, the systematic collection, collation, and probability analysis of historical data is well worthwhile. Key words: ice jams, historical flood analysis, probability analysis, hydrology, river floods, river ice.

scholarly journals Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River—Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt ◽  
Dirk Carstensen ◽  
Wolfgang Fröhlich ◽  
Bernd Hentschel ◽  
Stefan Iwicki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Workshop ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Oder River

Despite ubiquitous warming, the lower Oder River typically freezes over almost every year. Ice jams may occur during freeze-up and ice cover breakup phases, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the river, with weirs and piers. The slush ice and ice blocks may accumulate to form ice jams, leading to backwater effects and substantial water level rise. The small bottom slope of the lower Oder and the tidal backflow from the Baltic Sea enhance the formation of ice jams during cold weather conditions, jeopardizing the dikes. Therefore, development of an ice jam flood forecasting system for the Oder River is much needed. This commentary presents selected results from an international workshop that took place in Wrocław (Poland) on 26–27 November 2018 that brought together an international team of experts to explore the requirements and research opportunities in the field of ice jam flood forecasting and risk assessment for the Oder River section along the German–Polish border. The workshop launched a platform for collaboration amongst Canadian, German and Polish scientists, government officials and water managers to pave a way forward for joint research focused on achieving the long-term goal of forecasting, assessing and mitigating ice jam impacts along the lower Oder. German and Polish government agencies are in need of new tools to forecast ice jams and assess their subsequent consequences and risks to communities and ship navigation along a river. Addressing these issues will also help research and ice flood management in a Canadian context. A research program would aim to develop a modelling system by addressing fundamental issues that impede the prediction of ice jam events and their consequences in cold regions.

Measuring the skill of an operational ice jam flood forecasting system

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 102001
Author(s):  
Brandon S. Williams ◽  
Apurba Das ◽  
Peter Johnston ◽  
Bin Luo ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Forecasting System

Ice jam mitigation

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold S. Belore ◽  
Brian C. Burrell ◽  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In Canada, flooding due to the rise in water levels upstream of an ice jam, or the temporary exceedance of the flow and ice-carrying capacity of a channel upon release of an ice jam, has resulted in the loss of human life and extensive economic losses. Ice jam mitigation is a component of river ice management which includes all activities carried out to prevent or remove ice jams, or to reduce the damages that may result from an ice jam event. This paper presents a brief overview of measures to mitigate the damaging effects of ice jams and contains a discussion on their application to Canadian rivers. Key words: controlled ice breakup, flood control, ice jams, ice management, river ice.

scholarly journals Present-day Specific Features of the Channel Morphology and Ice-jam Formation at the Tom’ River

2012 ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Information ◽  
Channel Morphology ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Channel Deformations ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Engineering Measures ◽  
Tomsk Region

Features of present-day channel deformations of the Tom' River within the Tomsk region and related processes of the ice jams’ formation have been considered. Recommendations about prevention of their negative consequences have been offered. They include organizational, scientific/information and engineering measures of the damages prevention against dangerous hydrological processes under consideration.

scholarly journals Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Models for Ice-Jam Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemehalsadat Madaeni ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Rachid Lhissou ◽  
Saeid Homayuni ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Time Series Classification ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract. In cold regions, ice-jam events result in severe flooding due to a rapid rise in water levels upstream of the jam. These floods threaten human safety and damage properties and infrastructures as the floods resulting from ice-jams are sudden. Hence, the ice-jam prediction tools can give an early warning to increase response time and minimize the possible corresponding damages. However, the ice-jam prediction has always been a challenging problem as there is no analytical method available for this purpose. Nonetheless, ice jams form when some hydro-meteorological conditions happen, a few hours to a few days before the event. The ice-jam prediction problem can be considered as a binary multivariate time-series classification. Deep learning techniques have been successfully applied for time-series classification in many fields such as finance, engineering, weather forecasting, and medicine. In this research, we successfully applied CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks for ice-jam prediction for all the rivers in Quebec. The results show that the CN-LSTM model yields the best results in the validation and generalization with F1 scores of 0.82 and 0.91, respectively. This demonstrates that CNN and LSTM models are complementary, and a combination of them further improves classification.

scholarly journals Ice jam flood risks on the rivers of the Baikal Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
Tatyana Borisova
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Baikal Lake ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Damage Area ◽  
Selenga River ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Rational Development

The article presents the results of analysis and assessment of risks related to ice jams on the rivers of the Baikal Lake Basin. It also proposes the recommendations for mitigation and rational development of coastal areas. Data on catastrophic ice jam floods for more than 100 years is presented, the factors of their formation and mechanism of their movement are considered. On the basis of official statistics from expedition surveys, potentially dangerous jamming areas have been identified, and the repeatability and extent of floods have been calculated. With the help of ArcGIS package the scale of possible flooding was determined, which allowed to reveal the list of economic objects within the damage area. Specific indicators have been used to calculate the expected damage to territories, facilities and population from the flood hazard. Analysis and assessment of economic risk from the floods on the Selenga River are given. Measures to minimize risks of negative impact of floods are proposed.

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