scholarly journals Present-day Specific Features of the Channel Morphology and Ice-jam Formation at the Tom’ River

2012 ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Information ◽  
Channel Morphology ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Channel Deformations ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Engineering Measures ◽  
Tomsk Region

Features of present-day channel deformations of the Tom' River within the Tomsk region and related processes of the ice jams’ formation have been considered. Recommendations about prevention of their negative consequences have been offered. They include organizational, scientific/information and engineering measures of the damages prevention against dangerous hydrological processes under consideration.

scholarly journals River predisposition to ice jams: a simplified geospatial model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1033-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane De Munck ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
Monique Bernier ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Serge Légaré
Keyword(s):  
False Negative ◽  
Channel Morphology ◽  
River Channel ◽  
Geospatial Data ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Broken Ice

Abstract. Floods resulting from river ice jams pose a great risk to many riverside municipalities in Canada. The location of an ice jam is mainly influenced by channel morphology. The goal of this work was therefore to develop a simplified geospatial model to estimate the predisposition of a river channel to ice jams. Rather than predicting the timing of river ice breakup, the main question here was to predict where the broken ice is susceptible to jam based on the river's geomorphological characteristics. Thus, six parameters referred to potential causes for ice jams in the literature were initially selected: presence of an island, narrowing of the channel, high sinuosity, presence of a bridge, confluence of rivers, and slope break. A GIS-based tool was used to generate the aforementioned factors over regular-spaced segments along the entire channel using available geospatial data. An ice jam predisposition index (IJPI) was calculated by combining the weighted optimal factors. Three Canadian rivers (province of Québec) were chosen as test sites. The resulting maps were assessed from historical observations and local knowledge. Results show that 77 % of the observed ice jam sites on record occurred in river sections that the model considered as having high or medium predisposition. This leaves 23 % of false negative errors (missed occurrence). Between 7 and 11 % of the highly predisposed river sections did not have an ice jam on record (false-positive cases). Results, limitations, and potential improvements are discussed.

Ice jam mitigation

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold S. Belore ◽  
Brian C. Burrell ◽  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In Canada, flooding due to the rise in water levels upstream of an ice jam, or the temporary exceedance of the flow and ice-carrying capacity of a channel upon release of an ice jam, has resulted in the loss of human life and extensive economic losses. Ice jam mitigation is a component of river ice management which includes all activities carried out to prevent or remove ice jams, or to reduce the damages that may result from an ice jam event. This paper presents a brief overview of measures to mitigate the damaging effects of ice jams and contains a discussion on their application to Canadian rivers. Key words: controlled ice breakup, flood control, ice jams, ice management, river ice.

scholarly journals Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Models for Ice-Jam Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemehalsadat Madaeni ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Rachid Lhissou ◽  
Saeid Homayuni ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Time Series Classification ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract. In cold regions, ice-jam events result in severe flooding due to a rapid rise in water levels upstream of the jam. These floods threaten human safety and damage properties and infrastructures as the floods resulting from ice-jams are sudden. Hence, the ice-jam prediction tools can give an early warning to increase response time and minimize the possible corresponding damages. However, the ice-jam prediction has always been a challenging problem as there is no analytical method available for this purpose. Nonetheless, ice jams form when some hydro-meteorological conditions happen, a few hours to a few days before the event. The ice-jam prediction problem can be considered as a binary multivariate time-series classification. Deep learning techniques have been successfully applied for time-series classification in many fields such as finance, engineering, weather forecasting, and medicine. In this research, we successfully applied CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks for ice-jam prediction for all the rivers in Quebec. The results show that the CN-LSTM model yields the best results in the validation and generalization with F1 scores of 0.82 and 0.91, respectively. This demonstrates that CNN and LSTM models are complementary, and a combination of them further improves classification.

scholarly journals Ice jam flood risks on the rivers of the Baikal Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
Tatyana Borisova
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Baikal Lake ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Damage Area ◽  
Selenga River ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Rational Development

The article presents the results of analysis and assessment of risks related to ice jams on the rivers of the Baikal Lake Basin. It also proposes the recommendations for mitigation and rational development of coastal areas. Data on catastrophic ice jam floods for more than 100 years is presented, the factors of their formation and mechanism of their movement are considered. On the basis of official statistics from expedition surveys, potentially dangerous jamming areas have been identified, and the repeatability and extent of floods have been calculated. With the help of ArcGIS package the scale of possible flooding was determined, which allowed to reveal the list of economic objects within the damage area. Specific indicators have been used to calculate the expected damage to territories, facilities and population from the flood hazard. Analysis and assessment of economic risk from the floods on the Selenga River are given. Measures to minimize risks of negative impact of floods are proposed.

Jargon as a barrier to effective science communication: Evidence from metacognition

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 845-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia M. Bullock ◽  
Daniel Colón Amill ◽  
Hillary C. Shulman ◽  
Graham N. Dixon
Keyword(s):  
Technology Adoption ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Science Communication ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The Public ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Resistance To Persuasion ◽  
Effective Science ◽  
Scientific Technology

In this experiment ( N = 650), we examine the negative consequences of jargon on individuals’ perceptions of emerging scientific technology and aim to explain these effects. We find that the presence of jargon impairs people’s ability to process scientific information, and that this impairment leads to greater motivated resistance to persuasion, increased risk perceptions, and lower support for technology adoption. These findings suggest that the use of jargon undermines efforts to inform and persuade the public through the cognitive mechanism of metacognition.

Small-scale experiments on ice-jam initiation in a curved channel

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 719-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilberto E. Urroz ◽  
Robert Ettema
Keyword(s):  
Froude Number ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Rectangular Cross Section ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Curved Channel ◽  
Point Bar ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Point Bars ◽  
River Bends

Two principal ice-jam initiation mechanisms, namely, lodgement and gorging, were identified through ice conveyance experiments in a small-scale, curved flume of rectangular cross section. Polyethylene blocks and beads were used to simulate ice fragments. Lodgement occurred for ice fragments that were large relative to channel width, while gorging took place when ice pieces were relatively small and were transported through the channel in multilayer. Channel roughness was found to have a significant effect in helping the arching mechanism that produces lodging. Maximum ice-floe concentration before jamming was found to increase linearly with Froude number, F, when gorging was dominant, but showed little dependence on F for ice jams initiated by lodging. Experiments conducted with point bars placed at the bends indicated that ice jams were initiated mainly by beaching of floes on the point bar. Maximum ice-floe concentration also increased linearly with Froude number for the point-bar experiments. Key words: ice-covered rivers, river bends.

Flow through the voids of breakup ice jams

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Integral Method ◽  
Laboratory Tests ◽  
Major Portion ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Flow Through

Flow through the voids of breakup ice jams can be a major portion of the total river discharge, especially where the jam is so thick as to be grounded. Very little information is available on this question; it is derived from laboratory tests or from numerical modelling applications, and there is a discrepancy between respective seepage coefficients. A field program has been carried out to measure the flow through the voids in ice jams by taking advantage of favourable access conditions created by an ice-retention structure on the Credit River. The data obtained during two breakup events are described and an integral method of analysis is developed to identify areas of grounding and determine seepage coefficients. Values of the latter are in agreement with those deduced by numerical modelling.Key words: flow, ice jam, modelling, seepage, voids.

Two-dimensional model of channel deformations caused by Ice-jam formation

2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 218-222
Author(s):  
E. I. Debol’skaya ◽  
V. K. Debol’skii ◽  
O. Ya. Maslikova
Keyword(s):  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Dimensional Model ◽  
Channel Deformations ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Two Dimensional Model

Analyse hydro-météorologique des débâcles de glaces de la rivière Nashwaak (Nouveau-Brunswick)

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-354
Author(s):  
S. Hebabi ◽  
N. El-Jabi ◽  
S. Sarraf
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Dimensional Analysis ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Meteorological Analysis

The problems associated with ice cover formation, development, and breakup are numerous. In fact, every year ice breakup and ice jams cause damage throughout Canada. In New Brunswick, ice breakup is responsible for 35% of floods and 70% of damage to bridges. This paper describes a hydro-meteorological analysis of ice breakup along the Nashwaak River in New Brunswick. Thirteen events that occur between 1969 and 1982 were studied. First, river records were used to determine a breakup initiation index. A dimensional analysis was then performed integrating the index with meteorological variables and river flows. Although there was no resemblance between variations of meteorological factors from one event to the next, the results suggest that the index formulated has potential as a tool for development of predictive models for ice breakup. Key words: ice breakup, ice jam, floods, meteorology, flow, predictive model, damages, bridges, Nashwaak River.

River ice breakup processes: recent advances and future directions

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Mitigation Methods

The breakup of the winter ice cover is a brief but seminal event in the regime of northern rivers, and in the life cycle of river and basin ecosystems. Breakup ice jams can cause extreme flood events, with major impacts on riverside communities, aquatic life, infrastructure, navigation, and hydropower generation. Related concerns are underscored by the issue of climate change and the faster warming that is predicted for northern parts of the globe. Advances in knowledge of breakup processes and related topics, achieved over the past 15 years or so, are outlined. They pertain to breakup initiation and ice-jam formation, ice-jam properties and numerical modelling of ice jams, waves generated by ice-jam releases, forecasting and mitigation methods, sediment transport, ecological aspects, and climate-change impacts. Major knowledge gaps are associated with the dynamic interaction of moving ice with the flow and with the stationary ice cover. Increasing computing capacity and remote sensing sophistication are expected to provide effective means for bridging these gaps. Key words: climate, ecology, forecasting, ice jam, modelling, onset, sediment, wave.

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