China and the Thucydides’ Trap

2021 ◽  
pp. 13-37
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad A. Moosa

The current trade war between the USA and China is perceived to be motivated by the US desire to curtail the bilateral trade deficit, on the assumption that reducing the deficit boosts economic growth. This flawed proposition indicates gross misunderstanding of the national income identity and the basic principles of macroeconomics. The imposition of tariffs will not reduce the trade deficit as the assumptions and conditions required for a smooth working of the process are unrealistic and counterfactual. The notion of an economic Thucydides trap is put forward to explain why the trade war is motivated by US apprehension about China’s rising economic power.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-264
Author(s):  
Nicholas Ross Smith ◽  
Ruairidh J. Brown

There is much pessimism as to the current state of Sino-American relations, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. Such pessimism has led to some scholars and commentators asserting that the Sino-American relationship is on the cusp of either a new Cold War or, even more alarmingly, something akin to the Peloponnesian War (via a Thucydides Trap) whereby the United States might take pre-emptive measures against China. This article rejects such analogizing and argues that, due to important technological advancements found at the intersection of the digital and fourth industrial revolutions, most of the real competition in the relationship is now occurring in cyberspace, especially with regards to the aim of asserting narratives of truth. Two key narrative battlegrounds that have raged since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are examined: where was the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic? and who has had the most successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic?. This article shows that Sino-American competition in cyberspace over asserting their narratives of truth (related to the COVID-19 pandemic) is fierce and unhinged. Part of what is driving this competition is the challenging domestic settings politicians and officials find themselves in both China and the United States, thus, the competing narratives being asserted by both sides are predominately for domestic audiences. However, given that cyberspace connects states with foreign publics more intimately, the international aspect of this competition is also important and could result in further damage to the already fragile Sino-American relationship. Yet, whether this competition will bleed into the real world is far from certain and, because of this, doomsaying via historical analogies should be avoided.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (02) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Leif-Eric EASLEY

Analogies to the Peloponnesian War have been misapplied in studies of US–China relations, especially regarding the so-called “Thucydides trap” of inevitable conflict between an established power and a rising power. This article addresses methodological problems with deriving policy lessons from political theory and ancient history. It then argues that Thucydides is more applicable to overcoming a pattern of leadership mistakes reminiscent of Athens’ populist politics, erosion of international agreements and mismanagement of alliances. To meet the China challenge, the United States must renew its national strength with good governance, productive interdependence, and sustained investment in human capital.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
Yuqing XING

China—US trade war looks like a modern version of the Thucydides Trap. The devastating consequences of the trade war can be avoided if China takes the drastic step to open its market to US firms and allow foreign firms to have a level playing field to compete with Chinese firms. It is time that Chinese consumers embrace products “made beyond China”. Strengthening economic cooperation with the European Union (EU) and Japan would give China the leverage to counterbalance the pressure of the United States. China, however, should be ready to offer significant concessions in opening its domestic market too.


Author(s):  
Jonathan M. DiCicco

Power transition theory and Graham Allison’s Thucydides Trap Project are discussed in tandem with two complementary aims: to highlight theoretical and empirical contributions of the power transition research program, and to provide critical perspective on the Thucydides Trap Project. Conventional-wisdom approaches of this sort are distinguished from power transition theory, the empirical international relations theory proposed by A. F. K. Organski and further articulated and tested by generations of scholars. The theory’s central elements—national power, stages of power transition, shifts in the distribution of power, international order and the status quo—are identified and discussed, with a focus on key variables used to explain war and peace among contending states. A comparative, critical examination of the Thucydides Trap Project is used as a lens for spotlighting key empirical contributions of the power transition theory research tradition and the value of adhering to norms of scientific rigor. Opportunities for further growth and development are noted, with special attention afforded to essential features of the power transition theory research program, including the study of (1) the timing and initiation of war; (2) rising powers’ dissatisfaction with the status quo, and a possible distinction between dissatisfaction and revisionism; and (3) reducing the risk of violent, revisionist challenges.


2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoying Han ◽  
Richard J. Cook ◽  
Maximilian Ohle

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