Does Gold Still Shelter Inflation, and, if so, When? Evidence From Four Countries

Author(s):  
Mohd Fahmi Ghazali ◽  
Nurul Fasyah Mohd Ussdek ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Jude W. Taunson

This study investigates gold as a hedge or a safe haven against inflation in four countries. We propose two standard and quantile techniques in the volatility models, with a time-varying conditional variance of regression residuals based on TGARCH specifications. Gold exhibits considerable evidence of a strong hedge in the US and China. Nevertheless, gold provides shelter at different times and not consistently across countries. With regards to be a safe haven, gold retains its status as a key investment in China. On the other hand, gold only plays a minor role in the UK and India. These findings indicate that gold can secure Chinese investment during the high inflationary periods, while gold is a profitable asset to hold over a long period of time in the US. In contrast, UK and Indian investors should hold a well-diversified portfolio for sustainable return and protection from purchasing power loss.

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (02) ◽  
pp. 275-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHD FAHMI GHAZALI ◽  
HOOI HOOI LEAN ◽  
ZAKARIA BAHARI

This study aims to analyze the characteristics of gold as a diversifier, a hedge or a safe haven against the stock market collapse in five countries. We propose the standard and quantile techniques in the volatility models, with the time-varying conditional variance of the regression residuals based on the TGARCH specifications. Gold exhibits considerable evidence of the strong hedge in India and the US and diversified role in China. With regards to its role as a safe haven, gold retains its status as a key investment particularly in a country where gold has a preeminent cultural role, i.e., India, as well as in the US and the UK. On the contrary, gold only plays a minor role in emerging markets like in Malaysia. Therefore, investors in India and the US can use gold to protect against losses in the stock market at all times, whereas in the UK, gold is only viewed as a profitable asset to own during the stock market collapse. Contrariwise, Chinese investors should hold a well-diversified portfolio to earn sustainable returns and offer protection against the stock market collapse. We conclude that the recent worldwide financial crises have increased the investment demand for gold over the last 17 years at least.


1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.


Author(s):  
E Gregg ◽  
C Hill ◽  
M Hollywood ◽  
M Kearney ◽  
D McLaughlin ◽  
...  

AbstractAt the request of the UK Department of Health, samples of 25 commercial UK cigarette brands were provided to LGC Ltd a for smoke analysis. The brands reflected a high market share (58% in July 2001) and included a wide range of blend and product styles manufactured and imported into the UK.= 0.76), suggesting a minor role of other design features on constituents yield variability. This was confirmed by the application of multiple regression analysis to the data. A subset of five brands, retested at another laboratory, gave between-laboratory differences in mean constituent yields of as much as 2.5-fold. Consideration of these results, other likely sources of analytical variation in this study and a review of other studies, clearly indicates that any tolerance values to be associated with individual smoke constituent measurements will be greater than those for NFDPM, and in some cases, much greater. Consistent with the reported results from other large studies it is concluded that, under ISO smoking conditions, smoke constituent yields are largely predictable, if NFDPM and CO yields are known, for a standard cigarette. Given these observations and the likely limitations of analytical determination, the need for routine measurement of smoke constituent yields, other than NFDPM, nicotine or CO, on standard cigarettes, is questionable.


Author(s):  
J. Hudson

Like many of its western counterparts, the United Kingdom (UK) government has a long history of using IT in the administration and delivery of public services. Indeed, as early as 1959 mainframe computers were introduced in order to automate some routine aspects of public administration (Margetts & Willcocks, 1992, p. 329). However, it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s—as the UK rose to the forefront of the emerging microcomputer industry—that IT featured in policy discourse in anything other than an extremely minor fashion. Even then—despite the appointment of Kenneth Baker as the government’s first Information Technology Minister in 1981—the issue did not feature prominently and there was nothing approaching the equivalence of the neighbouring French government’s review of the long-term social and economic policy implications of L’Informatisation d’Societe commissioned in 1976 by President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (Nora & Minc, 1980). In fact, one former government minister claimed in his diaries that Baker’s appointment to the government had more to do with finding a minor role for a politician piqued at his omission from the Cabinet than with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s belief in the importance of IT related issues (Lawson, 1992). However, the agenda began to gather some pace following Thatcher’s departure in 1990. Under the helm of Prime Minister John Major, the Conservatives introduced a number of important policies—including a series of industrially focused information society initiatives aimed at boosting the use of ICTs by business. In addition, prompted perhaps by the popular emergence of the Internet, other branches of government began to show a greatly increased interest in the issue. For instance, a Parliamentary committee—the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee (1996)—produced a major report on the implications of the information society for government. In addition, the publication of a major study on the same issue by the European Union (1994) added weight to the emerging agenda. Shortly before losing power in 1997, the Major government produced what was arguably the UK government’s first systematic consideration of the implications of ICTs for government when it published an exploratory Green Paper titled Government.Direct (CITU, 1996). Though it came too late in the life of the government to advance its ideas any further than the discussion stage, it at least served to heighten the prominence of the agenda (Hudson, 2002).


Microbiology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 150 (11) ◽  
pp. 3631-3645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Dziva ◽  
Pauline M. van Diemen ◽  
Mark P. Stevens ◽  
Amanda J. Smith ◽  
Timothy S. Wallis

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) cause acute gastroenteritis in humans that may be complicated by life-threatening systemic sequelae. The predominant EHEC serotype affecting humans in the UK and North America is O157 : H7 and infections are frequently associated with contact with ruminant faeces. Strategies to reduce the carriage of EHEC in ruminants are expected to lower the incidence of human EHEC infections; however, the molecular mechanisms underlying persistence of EHEC in ruminants are poorly understood. This paper reports the first comprehensive survey for EHEC factors mediating colonization of the bovine intestines by using signature-tagged transposon mutagenesis. Seventy-nine E. coli O157 : H7 mutants impaired in their ability to colonize calves were isolated and 59 different genes required for intestinal colonization were identified by cloning and sequencing of the transposon insertion sites. Thirteen transposon insertions were clustered in the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE), which encodes a type III protein secretion system required for the formation of attaching and effacing lesions on intestinal epithelia. A putative structural component of the apparatus (EscN) is essential for intestinal colonization; however, the type III secreted effector protein Map plays only a minor role. Other Type III secretion-associated genes were implicated in colonization of calves by E. coli O157 : H7, including z0990 (ecs0850), which encodes the non-LEE-encoded type III secreted effector NleD and the closely related z3023 (ecs2672) and z3026 (ecs2674) genes which encode homologues of Shigella IpaH proteins. We also identified a novel fimbrial locus required for intestinal colonization in calves by E. coli O157 : H7 (z2199-z2206; ecs2114-ecs2107/locus 8) and demonstrated that a mutant harbouring a deletion of the putative major fimbrial subunit gene is rapidly out-competed by the parent strain in co-infection studies. Our data provide valuable new information for the development of intervention strategies.


2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 1636-1652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Benati ◽  
Paolo Surico

Most analyses of the US Great Moderation are based on structural VARs, and point toward good luck as the main explanation for the recent macroeconomic stability. Based on an estimated New-Keynesian model where the only source of change is the move from passive to active monetary policy, we show that (i) the theoretical VAR innovation variances for all series decrease across regimes; (ii) VAR-based counterfactuals assign a minor role to improved policy; and (iii) VAR impulse-response functions to a monetary shock exhibit little variation across regimes. Our analysis suggests that existing VAR evidence is also compatible with the “good policy” hypothesis. (JEL C32, C52, E13, E52, N12)


2011 ◽  
pp. 172-178
Author(s):  
John Hudson

Like many of its western counterparts, the United Kingdom (UK) government has a long history of using IT in the administration and delivery of public services. Indeed, as early as 1959 mainframe computers were introduced in order to automate some routine aspects of public administration (Margetts & Willcocks, 1992, p. 329). However, it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s—as the UK rose to the forefront of the emerging microcomputer industry—that IT featured in policy discourse in anything other than an extremely minor fashion. Even then—despite the appointment of Kenneth Baker as the government’s first Information Technology Minister in 1981—the issue did not feature prominently and there was nothing approaching the equivalence of the neighbouring French government’s review of the long-term social and economic policy implications of L’Informatisation d’Societe commissioned in 1976 by President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (Nora & Minc, 1980). In fact, one former government minister claimed in his diaries that Baker’s appointment to the government had more to do with finding a minor role for a politician piqued at his omission from the Cabinet than with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s belief in the importance of IT related issues (Lawson, 1992). However, the agenda began to gather some pace following Thatcher’s departure in 1990. Under the helm of Prime Minister John Major, the Conservatives introduced a number of important policies—including a series of industrially focused information society initiatives aimed at boosting the use of ICTs by business. In addition, prompted perhaps by the popular emergence of the Internet, other branches of government began to show a greatly increased interest in the issue. For instance, a Parliamentary committee—the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee (1996)—produced a major report on the implications of the information society for government. In addition, the publication of a major study on the same issue by the European Union (1994) added weight to the emerging agenda. Shortly before losing power in 1997, the Major government produced what was arguably the UK government’s first systematic consideration of the implications of ICTs for government when it published an exploratory Green Paper titled Government.Direct (CITU, 1996). Though it came too late in the life of the government to advance its ideas any further than the discussion stage, it at least served to heighten the prominence of the agenda (Hudson, 2002).


2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira ◽  
Ricardo Pires De Souza Santos

This article aims to test the hypothesis of contagion between the indices of financial markets from the United States into Brazil, Japan and the UK for the 2000 to 2009 period. Time varying copulas were used to capture the impact of the sub-prime crisis in the dependence between markets. The implemented model was an ARMA(1,0) st-ARCH(1,2) to the marginal distributions and Normal and Joe-Clayton (SJC) copulas for the joint distribution. The results obtained allow to conclude that both for the gaussian copula and for the SJC copula there is evidence of contagion between the US market and the Brazilian market. For the other two markets, the UK and Japan, the evidence of the presence of contagion between these markets and the US has not been sufficiently clear in both copula.


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