ANÁLISIS ECONOMÉTRICO DE LA PARIDAD DEL PODER DE COMPRA EN EL PERÚ

El Perú es una economía pequeña y abierta al mundo que depende en gran medida de las transacciones con sus socios comerciales y está expuesta a shocks financieros como los creados por la crisis financiera del año 2008. La presente investigación tiene por objetivo contrastar la validez de la Paridad del Poder de Compra entre Perú y EEUU para el período 2000-2018. Para el análisis se emplea la metodología de Johansen para el contraste de relaciones de cointegración y la metodología VAR para la estimación de los parámetros de largo plazo. Los resultados revelan que no se cumple la hipótesis de la Paridad del Poder de Compra para la moneda peruana y el dólar en ninguna de sus formas funcionales planteadas, debido que los parámetros estimados para ambos casos son diferentes de la unidad rechazándose así la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercados en el largo plazo para el Perú y EEUU.Palabras clave: Cointegración, largo plazo, VAR, índice de precios. ABSTRACTPeru is a small economy and open to the world that depends heavily on transactions with its business partners and is exposed to financial shocks such as those created by the financial crisis of 2008. This research aims to verify the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity between Peru and the US for the period 2000-2018. For the analysis, the Johansen methodology is used for the contrast of cointegration relationships and the VAR methodology for the modification of long-term parameters. The results reveal that the hypothesis of the Purchasing Power Parity for the Peruvian currency and the dollar is not fulfilled in any of its proposed functional forms, because the parameters estimated for both cases are different from the unit rejected by the hypothesis of long-term market efficiency for Peru and the US.Keywords: Cointegration, long term, VAR, price index. Clasificación/Classification JEL: C32, C51, F41

SVAR (Mis)Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks

I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches—restrictions on Taylor rules and external instruments—instead work well. My findings suggest that empirical evidence is consistent with models in which the real effects of monetary policy are larger than commonly estimated. (JEL C32, E12, E32, E43, E52)

Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Sri Lanka

This article examines the relationship between tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) and the factors that enhance tourism in Sri Lanka using data over the years 1978–2015, under a vector autoregressive framework. The results reveal that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, and a number of variables such as FDI, exchange rate, tourism price and civil war of the country. The results also reveal that there exist unidirectional causal relationships from FDI to tourism and tourism price to tourism, in both the long run and the short run. In light of this finding, it is recommended that Sri Lanka should introduce policies that would increase FDI inflows into the tourism industry and maintain a competitive tourism price to attract more tourist arrivals. JEL: C32, F19, F41, O53

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks

Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not. (JEL C32, L71, Q35, Q43)

Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that during the Great Moderation period, monetary policy shocks induce a persistent decline in real activity and tightening in financial conditions. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in corporate credit spreads. The failure to account for this endogenous reaction induces an attenuation in the response of all variables to monetary shocks, a result that also applies to the narrative identification of Romer and Romer (2004). (JEL C32, E23, E32, E44, E52, E58)

Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and/or the historical decomposition around key historical events, ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes. Using models of the oil market and monetary policy, we show that narrative sign restrictions tend to be highly informative. Even a single narrative sign restriction may dramatically sharpen and even change the inference of SVARs originally identified via traditional sign restrictions. Our approach combines the appeal of narrative methods with the popularized usage of traditional sign restrictions. (JEL C32, E52, Q35, Q43)

System and Neural Network Analysis of Economic and Financial Development – A case study of Dubai and rest of UAE

The study examines the factors affecting the economic and financial development by applying Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) and Neural Network techniques. It applies multivariate and neural network frameworks for analysing the GDP of Dubai and rest of UAE using data for 2001–2015. The study shows that there exists positive interdependencies between Dubai and rest of UAE economies. This signifies that the core competencies across various sectors in Dubai and rest of UAE economies need to be promoted further to have overall diversified impact on UAE economy. The positive sizable impact of the finance sector in Dubai and negative sizable impact in the rest of the UAE provide many opportunities for designing diversification programs for sustained economic development of the entire UAE economy. The small sample size, non-availability of detailed sectoral data in four of the seven emirates constrained the scope of the study for generalization to other economies in the Middle East. The study findings are crucial for identifying structural reforms, to strengthen competitiveness and accelerate private sector-led job creation for nationals, potential on further opening up foreign direct investment (FDI), improving selected areas of the business environment, and easing access to finance for start-ups and SMEs in both the economies. JEL: C32, C52, D85, N15, N25

Noisy News in Business Cycles

We investigate the role of “noise” shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations. To do so we set up a simple model of imperfect information and derive restrictions for identifying the noise shock in a VAR model. The novelty of our approach is that identification is reached by means of dynamic rotations of the reduced-form residuals. We find that noise shocks generate hump-shaped responses of GDP, consumption and investment, and account for a sizable fraction of their prediction error variance at business cycle horizons. (JEL C32, D83, E12, E23, E32, E43)

Hansen and Sargent's Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies: A Review Essay

Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent's book, Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies, exposits, extends, and applies methods for solution and analysis of dynamic stochastic linear quadratic models. The book, which can be used as a monograph or in a graduate course, integrates theory, econometrics, and computation. This essay provides a summary and offers some mild complaints about material not included in what is already a remarkably comprehensive book. (JEL C32, C61, D40, D50, E10)

Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs

This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the narrative method. We first show that “narrative” shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of “fiscal foresight,” the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)