A Fast Method for Detecting Interdependence between Time Series and Its Directionality

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Paolini ◽  
Francesco Sarnari ◽  
Riccardo Meucci ◽  
Stefano Euzzor ◽  
Jean-Mark Ginoux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Nonlinear Method ◽  
Chaotic Signals ◽  
Visual Cortices ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Bivariate Time Series ◽  
Nonlinear Couplings

We propose a fast nonlinear method for assessing quantitatively both the existence and directionality of linear and nonlinear couplings between a pair of time series. We test this method, called Boolean Slope Coherence (BSC), on bivariate time series generated by various models, and compare our results with those obtained from different well-known methods. A similar approach is employed to test the BSC’s capability to determine the prevalent coupling directionality. Our results show that the BSC method is successful for both quantifying the coupling level between a pair of signals and determining their directionality. Moreover, the BSC method also works for noisy as well as chaotic signals and, as an example of its application to real data, we tested it by analyzing neurophysiological recordings from visual cortices.

Empirical analysis of time series using feature selection algorithms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Kanevski
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

<p>Nowadays a wide range of methods and tools to study and forecast time series is available. An important problem in forecasting concerns embedding of time series, i.e. construction of a high dimensional space where forecasting problem is considered as a regression task. There are several basic linear and nonlinear approaches of constructing such space by defining an optimal delay vector using different theoretical concepts. Another way is to consider this space as an input feature space – IFS, and to apply machine learning feature selection (FS) algorithms to optimize IFS according to the problem under study (analysis, modelling or forecasting). Such approach is an empirical one: it is based on data and depends on the FS algorithms applied. In machine learning features are generally classified as relevant, redundant and irrelevant. It gives a reach possibility to perform advanced multivariate time series exploration and development of interpretable predictive models.</p><p>Therefore, in the present research different FS algorithms are used to analyze fundamental properties of time series from empirical point of view. Linear and nonlinear simulated time series are studied in detail to understand the advantages and drawbacks of the proposed approach. Real data case studies deal with air pollution and wind speed times series. Preliminary results are quite promising and more research is in progress.</p>

A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN UNIVARIATE AND BIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS FOR CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Bivariate Time Series

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.

scholarly journals Distinguishing linear and branched evolution given single-cell DNA sequencing data of tumors

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah L. Weber ◽  
Mohammed El-Kebir
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequencing ◽  
Single Cell ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Treatment Decision ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Sequencing Data ◽  
Evolutionary Trajectory ◽  
Cancer Types

Abstract Background Cancer arises from an evolutionary process where somatic mutations give rise to clonal expansions. Reconstructing this evolutionary process is useful for treatment decision-making as well as understanding evolutionary patterns across patients and cancer types. In particular, classifying a tumor’s evolutionary process as either linear or branched and understanding what cancer types and which patients have each of these trajectories could provide useful insights for both clinicians and researchers. While comprehensive cancer phylogeny inference from single-cell DNA sequencing data is challenging due to limitations with current sequencing technology and the complexity of the resulting problem, current data might provide sufficient signal to accurately classify a tumor’s evolutionary history as either linear or branched. Results We introduce the Linear Perfect Phylogeny Flipping (LPPF) problem as a means of testing two alternative hypotheses for the pattern of evolution, which we prove to be NP-hard. We develop Phyolin, which uses constraint programming to solve the LPPF problem. Through both in silico experiments and real data application, we demonstrate the performance of our method, outperforming a competing machine learning approach. Conclusion Phyolin is an accurate, easy to use and fast method for classifying an evolutionary trajectory as linear or branched given a tumor’s single-cell DNA sequencing data.

scholarly journals Calibrating the CreditRisk+ Model at Different Time Scales and in Presence of Temporal Autocorrelation †

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
pp. 1679
Author(s):  
Jacopo Giacomelli ◽  
Luca Passalacqua
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Statistical Error ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
Default Rate

The CreditRisk+ model is one of the industry standards for the valuation of default risk in credit loans portfolios. The calibration of CreditRisk+ requires, inter alia, the specification of the parameters describing the structure of dependence among default events. This work addresses the calibration of these parameters. In particular, we study the dependence of the calibration procedure on the sampling period of the default rate time series, that might be different from the time horizon onto which the model is used for forecasting, as it is often the case in real life applications. The case of autocorrelated time series and the role of the statistical error as a function of the time series period are also discussed. The findings of the proposed calibration technique are illustrated with the support of an application to real data.

Modeling of Psychomotor Reactions of a Person Based on Modification of the Tapping Test

2021 ◽  
pp. 190-200
Author(s):  
Lesia Mochurad ◽  
Yaroslav Hladun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Finger Tapping ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Model Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Finger Tapping Test

The paper considers the method for analysis of a psychophysical state of a person on psychomotor indicators – finger tapping test. The app for mobile phone that generalizes the classic tapping test is developed for experiments. Developed tool allows collecting samples and analyzing them like individual experiments and like dataset as a whole. The data based on statistical methods and optimization of hyperparameters is investigated for anomalies, and an algorithm for reducing their number is developed. The machine learning model is used to predict different features of the dataset. These experiments demonstrate the data structure obtained using finger tapping test. As a result, we gained knowledge of how to conduct experiments for better generalization of the model in future. A method for removing anomalies is developed and it can be used in further research to increase an accuracy of the model. Developed model is a multilayer recurrent neural network that works well with the classification of time series. Error of model learning on a synthetic dataset is 1.5% and on a real data from similar distribution is 5%.

scholarly journals Decomposition of Dynamical Signals into Jumps, Oscillatory Patterns, and Possible Outliers

Mathematics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Barton ◽  
Basad Al-Sarray ◽  
Stéphane Chrétien ◽  
Kavya Jagan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Signal Processing ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Real Data Analysis ◽  
Convex Optimisation ◽  
Dynamical Time

In this note, we present a component-wise algorithm combining several recent ideas from signal processing for simultaneous piecewise constants trend, seasonality, outliers, and noise decomposition of dynamical time series. Our approach is entirely based on convex optimisation, and our decomposition is guaranteed to be a global optimiser. We demonstrate the efficiency of the approach via simulations results and real data analysis.

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