OPTIMAL CREDIT RATINGS

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 225-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEBASTIAN HERZOG ◽  
CHRISTIAN KOZIOL ◽  
TIM THABE
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Default Probability ◽  
Bankruptcy Costs ◽  
Interest Payments

In this paper, we show that an individual optimal credit rating exists for firms and empirically test whether firms strive to achieve their optimal rating. For this purpose, we consider the structural model by Leland [12], which balances the benefits of debt in the form of the tax-deductibility of interest payments against bankruptcy costs in order to obtain the optimal rating. Testable implications for both firms which have implemented their optimal rating and firms with non-optimal ratings are deduced. An empirical test with 420 firms contained in the S&P 500 Index indicates that all factors which theoretically drive optimal ratings also affect the observed rating in the predicted way. In line with our theory, observed ratings can be considerably better explained if, in addition to the traditional factors such as leverage and firm size, a proxy for bankruptcy costs and the default probability related to the optimal rating is considered. These findings suggest that U.S. firms contained in the S&P 500 Index strive to achieve their optimal credit ratings.

Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-84
Author(s):  
Hosung Jung ◽  
Hyun Hak Kim
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Employment Status ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Default Probability ◽  
The Self ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Financial Status ◽  
Loan Defaults

This paper analyzes the factors behind the loan defaults of borrowers by their employment status (whether they are self-employed) using the Korea Consumer Credit Panel data held by the Bank of Korea, and estimates the probability of default and the fragility of the financial sector. This is done using the concept of exposure at default for individuals. Using individual data on loans and delinquencies, we divide the spreads of personal loans into spreads determined by loan characteristics and spreads based on credit ratings to examine how these factors determine the probability of default among self-employed and non-self-employed borrowers. We find that the marginal effect of the spread based by the characteristic of loans and the borrowers’ credit ratings on the probability of default is greater to the self-employed borrowers, as compared to the non-self-employed borrowers. Especially, the effect of the spread by credit rating is stronger than the other. When we measure the vulnerability of financial institutions in terms of households’ probability of default, the institutions’ exposure to default of the self-employed affects to institutions’ vulnerability more than those of the non-self-employed. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the connectedness of financial institutions to household debt, and, in particular, the financial status of the self-employed.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Audit Opinion And Credit Rating: Evidence From Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myungki Cha ◽  
Kookjae Hwang ◽  
Youngjun Yeo
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Audit Opinion ◽  
Credit Score ◽  
Audit System ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Predictive Function ◽  
Audit Opinions ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, we investigate the relationship between credit ratings and audit opinions of financially distressed companies impending bankruptcy. Using Korean publicly-held firms for the years 2007 through 2014, we analyze 97 bankrupt companies with credit rating available before they file bankruptcy. Following prior research (Geiger et al., 2005), we find that the propensity to issue a going concern audit opinion is associated with the credit score issued by NICE immediately prior to the audit opinion date. We also compare credit ratings to audit opinions to investigate which of the two is more conservative and provides the earlier signal of bankruptcy. Through empirical test, we can conclude that audit system has more successfully predictive function in signaling preceding bankruptcy than CRAs' system with overly optimism. We argue that after a string of high-profile corporate failures such as Enron and Arthur Anderson’s bankruptcies, legislators portrayed auditors negatively and ultimately led to the enactment and more forced liabilities and thus auditors become more conservative. To remedy CRAs' failure by providing overly optimism, we suggest that like as auditors, CRAs' regulations should be more strengthened on their liability about issuing credit ratings.

scholarly journals DEBTOR RATING AS A TOOL OF DEBT MANAGEMENT

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-129
Author(s):  
I. Hanus ◽  
I. Plikus ◽  
T. Zhukova
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Default Probability ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Corporate Default ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Credit Losses

IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments” introduced a new model of impairment based on expected credit losses, in which the impairment is based on expected credit losses, and the provision for losses is recognized before the credit loss, i.e. companies recognize losses immediately after initial recognition of the financial asset and revise the amount of the provision for expected credit losses at the reporting date. To create a provision for credit losses, IFRS 9 allows using several practical tools, including the rating debtors’ method. However, IFRS 9 does not express a clear opinion on how the expected credit loss for receivables should be calculated. In this regard, in our opinion, it is possible to apply an individual approach to the choice of credit risk assessment method, determining the debtor’s credit rating and the choice of the default probability, and so on. The paper substantiates that the debtors’ rating by the level of corporate default risk is a method that can reliably assess the probable risks. This method uses credit ratings. The paper proposes using the international credit ratings, which will allow a more objective creditworthiness assessment of both foreign and domestic debtors, taking into account macroeconomic factors used by rating agencies to determine the class of credit risk. The article presents the credit rating of Ukraine and changes in the credit rating of Ukraine for 15 years (2004-2019), shows the model of applying the international default probability rates. Two variants of applying this model are offered. Under the first option, the total amount of receivables from the counterparty / group of debtors is multiplied by the percentage of default probability. The second option involves applying the selected ratio according to the credit rating class at the last stage of calculating the expected credit losses by the simplified method. Due to the fact that there is no single approach to choosing the probability of default and everything relies on expert opinion, we propose using the data of the Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating, which is an analysis of market conditions in the world, the corporate defaults overview, the coefficient of bankruptcy probability of economic entities for each of the risk groups. The paper proposes using the annual rate of corporate defaults, as the expected credit losses must be calculated by companies on a regular basis and revalued at least once a year (on the balance sheet date). It is substantiated that the use of the average rate (Average Rate) to assess the probability of default, it is this rate that takes into account the past experience of companies that are in the corresponding zone of default risk for all the periods under consideration.

Rating Agency Adjustments to GAAP Financial Statements and Their Effect on Ratings and Credit Spreads

2014 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 641-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pepa Kraft
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Credit Spread ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Interest Expense

ABSTRACT I examine a dataset of both quantitative (hard) adjustments to firms' reported U.S. GAAP financial statement numbers and qualitative (soft) adjustments to firms' credit ratings that Moody's develops and uses in its credit rating process. I first document differences between firms' reported and Moody's adjusted numbers that are both large and frequent across firms. For example, primarily because of upward adjustments to interest expense and debt attributable to firms' off-balance sheet debt, on average, adjusted coverage (cash flow-to-debt) ratios are 27 percent (8 percent) lower and adjusted leverage ratios are 70 percent higher than the corresponding U.S. GAAP ratios. I then find that Moody's hard and soft rating adjustments are associated with significantly higher credit spreads and flatter credit spread term structures. Overall, the results indicate that Moody's quantitative adjustments to financial statement numbers and qualitative adjustments to credit ratings enable it to better capture default risk, consistent with it effectively processing both hard and soft information.

Uncertain Meanings of Risk

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Besedovsky
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Assessment Practices ◽  
Structured Finance ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Measures Of Risk ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Ontological Uncertainty

This chapter studies calculative risk-assessment practices in credit rating agencies. It identifies two fundamentally different methodological approaches for producing ratings, which in turn shape the respective conceptions of credit risk. The traditional approach sees ‘risk’ as an only partially calculable and predictable set of hazards that should be avoided or minimized. This approach is particularly evident in the production of country credit ratings and gives rise to ordinal rankings of risk. By contrast, structured finance rating practices conceive of ‘risk’ as both fully calculable and controllable; they construct cardinal measures of risk by assuming that ontological uncertainty does not exist and that models can capture all possible events in a probabilistic manner. This assumption—that uncertainty can be turned into measurable risk—is a necessary precondition for structured finance securities and has become an influential imaginary in financial markets.

scholarly journals Numerical estimates of risk factors contingent on credit ratings

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Gärtner ◽  
S. Kaniovski ◽  
Y. Kaniovski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Random Events ◽  
Historical Transition ◽  
Industry Sectors

AbstractAssuming a favorable or an adverse outcome for every combination of a credit class and an industry sector, a binary string, termed as a macroeconomic scenario, is considered. Given historical transition counts and a model for dependence among credit-rating migrations, a probability is assigned to each of the scenarios by maximizing a likelihood function. Applications of this distribution in financial risk analysis are suggested. Two classifications are considered: 7 non-default credit classes with 6 industry sectors and 2 non-default credit classes with 12 industry sectors. We propose a heuristic algorithm for solving the corresponding maximization problems of combinatorial complexity. Probabilities and correlations characterizing riskiness of random events involving several industry sectors and credit classes are reported.

scholarly journals Corporate parents, initial legitimacy, and resource acquisition in small and medium firms: An empirical examination

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Murphy ◽  
Neil Tocher
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Resource Acquisition ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Credit Scores ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Medium Firms

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) commonly struggle to acquire needed financial, human, and technological resources. The above being stated, recent scholarly research argues that SMEs that are able to successfully navigate the legitimacy threshold are better able to gather the resources they need to survive and grow. This article provides an empirical test of that claim by examining whether the presence of a corporate parent positively influences SME resource acquisition. Results of the study show that SMEs with corporate parents, when compared to like-sized independent SMEs, have higher credit scores, have more complete management teams, use more computers, and are more likely to be on the Internet. These differences are most pronounced for very small firms and diminish in significance as firm size increases. Study implications include the notion that presence of a corporate parent likely represents a successful navigation of the legitimacy threshold, positively increasing SME resource acquisition.

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