scholarly journals INVESTOR SENTIMENT CONNECTEDNESS: EVIDENCE FROM LINEAR AND NONLINEAR CAUSALITY APPROACHES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
AVIRAL KUMAR TIWARI ◽  
DEVEN BATHIA ◽  
ELIE BOURI ◽  
RANGAN GUPTA
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

This paper provides a novel perspective in determining the Granger causality of sentiment across the US, Latin America, Eurozone, Japan and Asia (excluding Japan), based on monthly data covering the period of January 2003–November 2017. Using a survey-based sentiment index of “sentix”, our results suggest strong evidence of nonlinearity and structural breaks making the use of linear causality models unreliable. Using a kernel-based multivariate nonlinear causality test, we find that causality runs from Eurozone to the US, Asia and Japan, with Japan also causing the Eurozone sentiment, and Latin America causing the Japanese sentiment. Interestingly, when we apply rolling estimations to detect time-varying causality for the cases of Eurozone and the US, Eurozone and Asia, Eurozone and Japan and Latin America and Japan, the results suggest evidence of bidirectional spillovers during certain months of the recent global financial crisis, and thereafter. Overall, our findings indicate that the sentiments of Japan, Asia and the US are related quite strongly with that of the Eurozone, as well as the sentiments of Japan and Latin America.

scholarly journals The Determinants of CDS Spreads in Multiple Industry Sectors: A Comparison between the US and Europe

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jatin Malhotra ◽  
Angelo Corelli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Industry Sectors ◽  
The Relationship

The paper analyzes the relationship between the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for 5-year CDS in Europe and US, and fundamental macroeconomic variables such as regional stock indices, oil prices, gold prices, and interest rates. The dataset includes consideration of multiple industry sectors in both economies, and it is split in two sections, before and after the global financial crisis. The analysis is carried out using multivariate regression of each index vs. the macroeconomic variables, and a Granger causality test. Both approaches are performed on the change of value of the variables involved. Results show that equity markets lead in price discovery, bidirectional causality between interest rate, and CDS spreads for most sectors involved. There is also bidirectional causality between stock and oil returns to CDS spreads.

Measuring Dependence Between the USA and the Asian Economies: A Time-varying Copula Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 962-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shegorika Rajwani ◽  
Dilip Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Copula Approach

During the past few years, many of the financial markets have gone through devastating effects due to the crisis in one or the other economy of the world. The recent global financial crisis has triggered dramatic movements in various stock markets which may arise from interdependence or contagion between the markets. This article attempts to measure the contagion between the equity markets of Asia and the US stock market. The countries considered in the Asian group are China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan. Most of the Asian economies have experienced drastic higher volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets. If the markets are contagious, then the investors will be unable to reap benefits through international diversification of the portfolio. In such a case, the policymakers will further frame policies so that they can insulate themselves from inflicting heavy damage from various crises. To achieve our goal, we make use of the time-varying copula approach which helps us to study the joint behaviour of the series based on their marginal distribution. Time-varying copula approach can also capture the non-linear dependence in the series and exhibits a rich pattern of tail behaviour. Our findings support the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US stock market during the global financial crisis. This article also highlights that the increased tail dependence is an important factor for the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US market.

scholarly journals Bank-Based Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time-Varying Causality Analysis for Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Amira Akl Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Growth Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
The Government

The bootstrap approach to Toda-Yamamoto (1995) modified causality test is applied in a rolling window of fixed size onto Egyptian data during 1960-2016 to examine time-varying links between economic growth (EG) and bank-based financial development (BBFD). Full sample results indicated the existence of unidirectional causality running from BBFD to EG, however; instability tests revealed the presence of structural breaks. Given the misleading inferences made using the full sample, the rolling window procedure is applied. Bidirectional time-varying causality between EG and BBFD was detected. Reasons behind declining the fraction of credit provided to private business sector to GDP in recent years include, mainly, credit crunch and expansion of credit to the government and partially to economic slowdown. Adoption of fiscal reforms and promotion of innovative financial tools suitable for the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises is highly recommended to enhance the role of banking system in promoting economic growth.

The Impact of Structural Breaks on Volatility Linkages between Asian Stock and Oil Futures Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-64
Author(s):  
Sang Hoon Kang ◽  
Seong-Min Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Icss Algorithm ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of structural breaks on volatility spillovers between Asian stock markets (China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) and the oil futures market. To this end, we apply the bivariate DCC-GARCH model to weekly spot indices during the period 1998-2015. The results reveal significant volatility transmission for the pairs between the Asian stock and oil futures markets. Moreover, we find a significant variability in the time-varying conditional correlations between the considered markets during both bullish and bearish markets, particularly from early 2007 to the summer of 2008. Using the modified ICSS algorithm, we find several sudden changes in these markets with a common break date centred on September 15, 2008. This date corresponds to the collapse of Lehman Brothers which is considered as our breakpoint to define the global financial crisis. Also, we analyse the optimal portfolio weights and time-varying hedge ratios based on the estimates of the multivariate DCC-GARCH model. The results emphasize the importance of overweighting optimal portfolios between Asian stock and the oil futures markets.

The dynamic information spill-over effect of WTI crude oil prices on China’s traditional energy sectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 516-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Jun Zhang ◽  
Yao-Bin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Processing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.Design/methodology/approachHong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.Originality/valueThe general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi ◽  
Bushra Naqvi
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Asymmetric Behavior

This paper is a first attempt to measure and analyze inflation uncertainty in Pakistan. It makes several contributions to the literature. In the first stage, using quarterly data from 1976:01 to 2008:02, we model inflation uncertainty as a time varying process using the GARCH framework. In the second stage, we analyze the asymmetric behavior of inflation uncertainty using the GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models. For further analysis of asymmetry and leverage effects, we develop news impact curves as proposed by Pagan and Schwart (1990). Finally we investigate the causality and its direction between inflation and inflation uncertainty by using the bivariate Granger-Causality test to determine which inflation uncertainty hypothesis (Friedman-Ball or Cukierman-Meltzer) holds true for Pakistani data. We obtain two important results. First, the GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models are more successful in capturing inflation uncertainty and its asymmetric behavior than the simple GARCH model. This can also be seen from news impact curves showing a significant level of asymmetry. Second, there is strong evidence that the Friedman-Ball inflation uncertainty hypothesis holds true for Pakistan.

scholarly journals On the Dynamics of International Real-Estate-Investment Trust-Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measuress

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1048
Author(s):  
Keagile Lesame ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
David Gabauer ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trust ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Pacific ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Interdependence

In this paper, we investigate the time-varying interconnectedness of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets using daily REIT prices in twelve major REIT countries since the Global Financial Crisis. We construct dynamic total, net total and net pairwise return and volatility connectedness measures to better understand systemic risk and the transmission of shocks across REIT markets. Our findings show that that REIT market interdependence is dynamic and increases significantly during times of heightened uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that the US REIT market along with major European REITs are generally sources of shocks to Asian-Pacific REIT markets. Furthermore, US REITs appear to dominate European REITs. These findings highlight that portfolio diversification opportunities decline during times of market uncertainty.

Oil Price Shocks and Sectoral Stocks Behaviour in Nigeria: How Relevant is Asymmetry and Structural Breaks?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Fasanya ◽  
Oluwasegun B. Adekoya ◽  
Temitope F. Odudu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this paper, we model the relationship between oil price and stock returns for selected sectors in Nigeria using monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016. We employ both the Linear (Symmetric) ARDL by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Nonlinear (Asymmetric) ARDL by Shin et al. (2014) and we also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. Our results indicate that the strength of this relationship varies across sectors, albeit asymmetric and breaks. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 2008 and 2010/2011 which coincidentally correspond to the global financial crisis and the Arab spring (Libyan shut-downs), respectively.Moreover, we observe strong supportfor asymmetry and structural breaks for some sectorsin the reaction of sector returns to movement in oil prices.These findings are robust and insensitive when considering different oil proxy.While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling this nexus.JEL codes: C22; C51; G12; Q43

Assessing the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: further evidences for Latin America

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 506-517
Author(s):  
Diego Ferreira ◽  
Andreza Aparecida Palma
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
High Uncertainty

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation has changed over time in Latin America. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) as proposed by Chan (2017). Findings Considering inflation series for the last two decades, we report evidences of high uncertainty from 1996 to early 2000s. Moreover, despite being positive throughout the sample, the overall relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation has changed over the years in Latin America, underscoring the importance of our time-varying specification. Practical/implication There are evidences of a greater volatile inflation behavior in the beginning of the sample period in comparison to the last few years. Overall, the considered Latin American economies seem to have endured relatively well the external adverse shocks from the 2008 global financial crisis. Originality/value The use of an SVM model with TVP in order to assess the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is new to the Latin America literature.

scholarly journals A Multivariate Analysis of the Effects of Structural Breaks on Stock Return Volatility Persistence: The Case of the US and Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Persistence ◽  
The Us

This paper quantitatively inspects the effects of structural breaks in stock returns on their volatility persistence by using the stock return data of the US and Japan. More concretely, applying the diagonal BEKK-MGARCH model with and without structural break dummies to the returns of S&P 500 and TOPIX, we reveal the following interesting findings. (1) First, we clarify that for both the US and Japanese stock returns, the values of the GARCH parameters, namely, the values of the volatility persistence parameters in the diagonal BEKK-MGARCH models decrease when we include the structural break dummies in the models. (2) Second, we further find that interestingly, during the Lehman crisis in 2008, the estimated time-varying volatilities from the diagonal BEKK-MGARCH model with structural break dummies are slightly higher than those from the no structural break dummy model. (3) Third, we furthermore reveal that also very interestingly, the estimated time-varying correlations from the diagonal BEKK-MGARCH model with no structural break dummy are slightly higher than those from the structural break dummy model.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document