Structure Specific Flood Risk Based Insurance

2017 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Kunreuther ◽  
John Dorman ◽  
Scott Edelman ◽  
Chris Jones ◽  
Marilyn Montgomery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Loss Reduction ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Imaging Detection ◽  
Price Insurance

This paper highlights the importance of developing accurate flood hazard maps to price insurance effectively and to communicate flood risk to interested parties. Risk-based insurance premiums can encourage insurance purchase and investment in cost effective mitigation measures. We undertake a study using light imaging detection and ranging (LIDAR) technology and depth damage curves to determine risk-based rates for residential structures in three counties in the state of North Carolina. We then compare these prices with current premiums charged to homeowners by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for 11,915 single-family residences. NFIP premiums are significantly higher than risk-based premiums for over 90 percent of the homes in each of the counties in our study. Risk-based prices are higher than NFIP premiums only in instances where buildings are predicted to suffer damage from more frequent, shallow floods that are currently not considered explicitly in NFIP premium calculations. Accurate flood maps are needed to determine cost-effective loss reduction measures and to address issues of affordability and fairness for homeowners currently living in flood-prone areas.

scholarly journals Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1297-1309 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. Klijn ◽  
B. van de Pas ◽  
C. T. J. Slager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there is currently an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk-reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does not, however, make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard and flood fatality hazard.

scholarly journals Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-159
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. Klijn ◽  
B. van de Pas ◽  
C. T. J. Slager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there currently is an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does, however, not make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard respectively flood fatality hazard.

scholarly journals Coastal flood risk within a peri-urban area: SUSSEX Inlet district, SE Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. F. Asbridge ◽  
D. Low Choy ◽  
B. Mackey ◽  
S. Serrao-Neumann ◽  
P. Taygfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Planning Strategies ◽  
Natural Resource Managers

AbstractThe peri-urban interface (PUI) exhibits characteristic qualities of both urban and rural regions, and this complexity has meant that risk assessments and long-term planning for PUI are lagging, despite these areas representing new developing settlement frontiers. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by modifying an existing approach to quantify and assess flood risk. The risk triangle framework was used to map exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables; however, in a novel application, the risk triangle framework was adapted by presuming that there is a variation in the degree of exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables. Within Australia and globally, PUIs are often coastal, and flood risk associated with rainfall and coastal inundation poses considerable risk to communities in the PUI; these risks will be further exacerbated should projections of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and accelerating sea-level rise eventuate. An indicator-based approach using the risk triangle framework that maps flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability was used to integrate the biophysical and socio-economic flooding risk for communities in PUI of the St Georges Basin and Sussex Inlet catchments of south-eastern Australia. Integrating the flood risk triangle with future scenarios of demographic and climate change, and considering factors that contribute to PUI flood risk, facilitated the identification of planning strategies that would reduce the future rate of increase in flood risk. These planning strategies are useful for natural resource managers and land use planners across Australia and globally, who are tasked with balancing socio-economic prosperity for a changing population, whilst maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services and values. The indicator-based approach used in this study provides a cost-effective first-pass risk assessment and is a valuable tool for decision makers planning for flood risk across PUIs in NSW and globally.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Assessment of Flood Hazard, Vulnerability, and Flood Risk at the Household Level in a Municipality Area: A Case Study of Nan Province, Thailand

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Tawatchai Tingsanchali ◽  
Thanasit Promping
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Pertinent Data ◽  
Hazard Vulnerability ◽  
Questionnaire Surveys

Estimating flood hazard, vulnerability, and flood risk at the household level in the past did not fully consider all relevant parameters. The main objective of this study is to improve this drawback by developing a new comprehensive and systematic methodology considering all relevant parameters and their weighting factors. This new methodology is applied to a case study of flood inundation in a municipal area of Nan City in the Upper Nan River Basin in Thailand. Field and questionnaire surveys were carried out to collect pertinent data for input into the new methodology for estimating flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk. Designed floods for various return periods were predicted using flood simulation models for assessing flood risk. The flood risk maps constructed for the return periods of 10–500 years show a substantial increase in flood risk with the return periods. The results are consistent with past flood damages, which were significant near and along the riverbanks where ground elevation is low, population density is high, and the number of household properties are high. In conclusion, this new comprehensive methodology yielded realistic results and can be used further to assess the effectiveness of various proposed flood mitigation measures.

scholarly journals A Framework Proposal for Regional-Scale Flood-Risk Assessment of Cultural Heritage Sites and Application to the Castile and León Region (Central Spain)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Garrote ◽  
Andrés Díez-Herrero ◽  
Cristina Escudero ◽  
Inés García
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
The Creation

Floods, at present, may constitute the natural phenomenon with the greatest impact on the deterioration of cultural heritage, which is the reason why the study of flood risk becomes essential in any attempt to manage cultural heritage (archaeological sites, historic buildings, artworks, etc.) This management of cultural heritage is complicated when it is distributed over a wide territory. This is precisely the situation in the region of Castile and León (Spain), in which 2155 cultural heritage elements are registered in the Catalog of Cultural Heritage Sites of Castile and León, and these are distributed along the 94,226 km2 of this region. Given this scenario, the present study proposes a methodological framework of flood risk analysis for these cultural heritage sites and elements. This assessment is based on two main processing tools to be developed in addition: on the one hand, the creation of a GIS database in which to establish the spatial relationship between the cultural heritage elements and the flow-prone areas for different flood return periods and, on the other hand, the creation of a risk matrix in which different variables are regarded as associated both to flood hazard (return period, flow depth, and river flooding typology) and to flood vulnerability (construction typology, and construction structural relationship with the hydraulic environment). The combination of both tools has allowed us to establish each cultural heritage flood risk level, making its categorization of risk possible. Of all the cultural heritage sites considered, 18 of them are categorized under an Extreme flood risk level; and another 24 show a High potential flood risk level. Therefore, these are about 25% to 30% of all cultural heritage sites in Castile and León. This flood risk categorization, with a scientific basis of the cultural heritage sites at risk, makes it possible to define territories of high flood risk clustering; where local scale analyses for mitigation measures against flood risk are necessary.

Assessing the global risk of climate change to re/insurers using catastrophe models and hazard maps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Jones ◽  
Emma Raven ◽  
Jane Toothill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Impact

<p>In 2018 worldwide natural catastrophe losses were estimated at around USD $155 billion, resulting in the fourth-highest insurance payout on sigma records, and in 2020 JBA Risk Management (JBA) estimate 2 billion people will be at risk to inland flooding. By 2100, under a 1.5°C warming scenario, the cost of coastal flooding alone as a result of sea level rise could reach USD $10.2 trillion per year, assuming no further adaptation. It is therefore imperative to understand the impact climate change may have on global flood risk and insured losses in the future.</p><p>The re/insurance industry has an important role to play in providing financial resilience in a changing climate. Although integrating climate science into financial business remains in its infancy, modelling companies like JBA are increasingly developing new data and services to help assess the potential impact of climate change on insurance exposure.</p><p>We will discuss several approaches to incorporating climate change projections with flood risk data using examples from research collaborations and commercial projects. Our case studies will include: (1) building a national-scale climate change flood model through the application of projected changes in river flow, rainfall and sea level to the stochastic event set in the model, and (2) using Global Climate Model data to adjust hydrological inputs driving 2D hydraulic models to develop climate change flood hazard maps.</p><p>These tools provide outputs to meet different needs, and results may sometimes invoke further questions. For example: how can an extreme climate scenario produce lower flood risk than a conservative one? Why may adjacent postcodes' flood risk differ? We will explore the challenges associated with interpreting these results and the potential implications for the re/insurance industry.</p>

Probabilistic Flood Hazard Maps at Ungauged Locations Using Multivariate Extreme Values Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Kezhkepurath Gangadhara ◽  
Srinivas Venkata Vemavarapu
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Hydrograph ◽  
Flood Hazard Map ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

<p>Flood hazard maps are essential for development and assessment of flood risk management strategies. Conventionally, flood hazard assessment is based on deterministic approach which involves deriving inundation maps considering hydrologic and hydraulic models. A flood hydrograph corresponding to a specified return period is derived using a hydrologic model, which is then routed through flood plain of the study area to estimate water surface elevations and inundation extent with the aid of a hydraulic model. A more informative way of representing flood risk is through probabilistic hazard maps, which additionally provide information on the uncertainty associated with the extent of inundation. To arrive at a probabilistic flood hazard map, several flood hydrographs are generated, representing possible scenarios for flood events over a long period of time (e.g., 500 to 1000 years). Each of those hydrographs is routed through the flood plain and probability of inundation for all locations in the plain is estimated to derive the probabilistic flood hazard map. For gauged catchments, historical streamflow and/or rainfall data may be used to determine design flood hydrographs and the corresponding hazard maps using various strategies. In the case of ungauged catchments, however, there is a dearth of procedures for prediction of flood hazard maps. To address this, a novel multivariate regional frequency analysis (MRFA) approach is proposed. It involves (i) use of a newly proposed clustering methodology for regionalization of catchments, which accounts for uncertainty arising from ambiguity in choice of various potential clustering algorithms (which differ in underlying clustering strategies) and their initialization, (ii) fitting of a multivariate extremes model to information pooled from catchments in homogeneous region to generate synthetic flood hydrographs at ungauged target location(s), and (iii) routing of the hydrographs through the flood plain using LISFLOOD-FP model to derive probabilistic flood hazard map. The MRFA approach is designed to predict flood hydrograph related characteristics (peak flow, volume and duration of flood) at target locations in ungauged basins by considering watershed related characteristics as predictor/explanatory variables. An advantage of the proposed approach is its ability to account for uncertainty in catchment regionalization and dependency between all the flood hydrograph related characteristics reliably. Thus, the synthetic flood hydrographs generated in river basins appear more realistic depicting the observed dependence structure among flood hydrograph characteristics. The approach alleviates several uncertainties found in conventional methods (based on conceptual, probabilistic or geomorphological approaches) which affect estimation of flood hazard. Potential of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study on catchments in Mahanadi river basin of India, which extends over 141,600 km<sup>2</sup> and is frequently prone to floods. Comparison is shown between flood hazard map obtained based on true at-site data and that derived based on the proposed MRFA approach by considering the respective sites to be pseudo-ungauged. Coefficient of correlation and root mean squared error considered for performance evaluation indicated that the proposed approach is promising.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Building-Level Flood Mitigation Measures Made Possible by Early Flood Warnings on Community-Level Flood Loss Reduction

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 475
Author(s):  
Omar M. Nofal ◽  
John W. van de van de Lindt ◽  
Harvey Cutler ◽  
Martin Shields ◽  
Kevin Crofton
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Warnings

The growing number of flood disasters worldwide and the subsequent catastrophic consequences of these events have revealed the flood vulnerability of communities. Flood impact predictions are essential for better flood risk management which can result in an improvement of flood preparedness for vulnerable communities. Early flood warnings can provide households and business owners additional time to save certain possessions or products in their buildings. This can be accomplished by elevating some of the water-sensitive components (e.g., appliances, furniture, electronics, etc.) or installing a temporary flood barrier. Although many qualitative and quantitative flood risk models have been developed and highlighted in the literature, the resolution used in these models does not allow a detailed analysis of flood mitigation at the building- and community level. Therefore, in this article, a high-fidelity flood risk model was used to provide a linkage between the outputs from a high-resolution flood hazard model integrated with a component-based probabilistic flood vulnerability model to account for the damage for each building within the community. The developed model allowed to investigate the benefits of using a precipitation forecast system that allows a lead time for the community to protect its assets and thereby decreasing the amount of flood-induced losses.

scholarly journals Global riverine flood risk – how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2921-2948
Author(s):  
Sara Lindersson ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte ◽  
Johanna Mård ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Population Grid ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

Abstract. Riverine flood risk studies often require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. This modelling process can be based on either (hydrologically derived) flood hazard maps or (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps. In this paper, we derive and compare riverine flood exposure from three global products: a hydrogeomorphic floodplain map (GFPLAIN250m, hereinafter GFPLAIN) and two flood hazard maps (Flood Hazard Map of the World by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, hereinafter JRC, and the flood hazard maps produced for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, hereinafter GAR). We find an average spatial agreement between these maps of around 30 % at the river basin level on a global scale. This agreement is highly variable across model combinations and geographic conditions, influenced by climatic humidity, river volume, topography, and coastal proximity. Contrary to expectations, the agreement between the two flood hazard maps is lower compared to their agreement with the hydrogeomorphic floodplain map. We also map riverine flood exposure for 26 countries across the global south by intersecting these maps with three human population maps (Global Human Settlement population grid, hereinafter GHS; High Resolution Settlement Layer, hereinafter HRSL; and WorldPop). The findings of this study indicate that hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can be a valuable way of producing high-resolution maps of flood-prone zones to support riverine flood risk studies, but caution should be taken in regions that are dry, steep, very flat, or near the coast.

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 563-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hagemeier-Klose ◽  
K. Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
General Public ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Information Tools ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps ◽  
Water Depths

Abstract. Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

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