Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5

This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.

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An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

Earth System Science Data ◽

10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 2959-2970

Author(s):

Maialen Iturbide ◽

José M. Gutiérrez ◽

Lincoln M. Alves ◽

Joaquín Bedia ◽

Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Scatter Plots ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

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Regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale with RegCM4: Evaluation of precipitation and future projections

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9183 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Paolo Stocchi ◽

Emanuela Pichelli ◽

Erika Coppola ◽

Jose Abraham Torres Alvarez ◽

Filippo Giorgi

Keyword(s):

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Added Value ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Model Errors ◽

Grid Spacing ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

<p>The recent increase in climate modeling activities at convection permitting scales (grid spacing under 4 km) has strongly been motivated by the increased computer capacities in the last years with the aim to reduce the model errors associated with parameterized convection and a more detailed representation of present and future regional climate. Some Regional climate projects addressing on convection permitting modeling simulations and projections have been recently implemented to make more robust conclusions on the added value of convection permitting simulation to future climate projections. Here, we present convection resolving climate simulations performed in the framework the European Climate Prediction System (EUCP) project, using the non-hydrostatic version of the RegCM model. The RegCM simulations have a grid spacing of 3 km, over three different regions (Pan-Alpine, Central Europe, and South-East Europe). These simulations were driven by initial and boundary conditions built from intermediate 12 km simulations driven by the global climate model (GCM) HadGEM2-ES. We considered three time slices each one of them covering a 10-year period, the historical (1996-2005), the near future (2041-2050) and the far future (2090-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The high resolutions (3 km) simulations, over the historical period, are evaluated through comparison with available observations data sets (including in-situ and satellite-based observation of precipitation) and coarse resolution (12 km) simulation is used as benchmark. The kilometer-scale RegCM4.7 scenario (RCP8.5) simulations, driven by HadGEM2-ES, near future (2041-2050) and the far future (2090-2099), are also analyzed and presented, focusing on the future change in terms of mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons.</p>

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WRF Sensitivity for Seasonal Climate Simulations of Precipitation Fields on the CORDEX South America Domain

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos13010107 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 107

Author(s):

Helber Barros Gomes ◽

Maria Cristina Lemos da Silva ◽

Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa ◽

Tércio Ambrizzi ◽

Hakki Baltaci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South America ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Added Value ◽

Climate Projections ◽

South American ◽

Climate Forecasting ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Simulated Precipitation

Dynamic numerical models of the atmosphere are the main tools used for weather and climate forecasting as well as climate projections. Thus, this work evaluated the systematic errors and areas with large uncertainties in precipitation over the South American continent (SAC) based on regional climate simulations with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Ten simulations using different convective, radiation, and microphysical schemes, and an ensemble mean among them, were performed with a resolution of 50 km, covering the CORDEX-South America domain. First, the seasonal precipitation variability and its differences were discussed. Then, its annual cycle was investigated through nine sub-domains on the SAC (AMZN, AMZS, NEBN, NEBS, SE, SURU, CHAC, PEQU, and TOTL). The Taylor Diagrams were used to assess the sensitivity of the model to different parameterizations and its ability to reproduce the simulated precipitation patterns. The results showed that the WRF simulations were better than the ERA-interim (ERAI) reanalysis when compared to the TRMM, showing the added value of dynamic downscaling. For all sub-domains the best result was obtained with the ensemble compared to the satellite TRMM. The largest errors were observed in the SURU and CHAC regions, and with the greatest dispersion of members during the rainy season. On the other hand, the best results were found in the AMZS, NEBS, and TOTL regions.

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Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061599 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1599 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Benjamin Poschlod ◽

Florian Willkofer ◽

Ralf Ludwig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Hierarchical Cluster ◽

Reference Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Monthly Discharge ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

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Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00730.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (10) ◽

pp. 3394-3414 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

C. Adam Schlosser ◽

Xiang Gao ◽

Kenneth Strzepek ◽

Andrei Sokolov ◽

Chris E. Forest ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Massachusetts Institute Of Technology ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Near Surface ◽

Institute Of Technology

Abstract The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.

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Analysis of Cooling and Heating Degree Days over Mexico in Present and Future Climate

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12091131 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 1131

Author(s):

Arturo Corrales-Suastegui ◽

Osias Ruiz-Alvarez ◽

José Abraham Torres-Alavez ◽

Edgar G. Pavia

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Degree Days ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Heating Degree Days ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

One simple way to estimate the relationship between air temperature and the energy needed for heating and cooling is to use the concept of degree day. Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) are indicators of the energy required to reach comfort levels and are related directly to energy demands. Therefore, using a novel approach, we examine the current conditions and future projections in degree days over Mexico using observations (Livneh and CPC), ERA5 reanalysis, and simulations from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 experiments were driven by different General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We consider three 20-year periods as “present conditions” (1995–2014), “near-future conditions” (2041–2060), and “far-future conditions” (2080–2099). The results suggest that in the future, under the lowest radiative forcing scenario there will be a smaller increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, as compared to the near-future. This could represent the model’s response to the peak of radiative forcing at mid-century and its subsequent decline. For the highest radiative forcing scenario, we found a greater increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, which could be explained by the response of the RegCM4 to the warming increase projected for 2100.

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Modeling Climate Change Projections for Ferozpur Sub-catchment of Jhelum Sub-basin of Kashmir Valley

International Journal of Environment and Climate Change ◽

10.9734/ijecc/2018/v8i127108 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 39-52

Author(s):

Syed Rouhullah Ali ◽

Junaid N. Khan ◽

Mehraj U. Din Dar ◽

Shakeel Ahmad Bhat ◽

Syed Midhat Fazil ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Kashmir Valley ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Aims: The study aimed at modeling the climate change projections for Ferozpur subcatchment of Jhelum sub-basin of Kashmir Valley using the SDSM model. Study Design: The study was carried out in three different time slices viz Baseline (1985-2015), Mid-century (2030-2059) and End-century (2070-2099). Place and Duration of Study: Division of Agricultural Engineering, SKUAST-K, Shalimar between August 2015 and July 2016. Methodology: Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling weather files (Tmax, Tminand precipitation). The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using Observed daily climate data (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) of thirty one years and large scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenario A2 of the Global Climate Model (GCM) data of Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3 (HadCM3) model for the future. Daily Climate (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) scenarios were generated from 1961 to 2099 under A2 defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Results: The results showed that temperature and precipitation would increase by 0.29°C, 255.38 mm (30.97%) in MC (Mid-century) (2030-2059); and 0.67oC and 233.28 mm (28.29%) during EC (End-century) (2070-2099), respectively. Conclusion: The climate projections for 21st century under A2 scenario indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation are showing an increasing trend.

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Climate projections in the Hornsund area, Southern Spitsbergen

Polish Polar Research ◽

10.1515/popore-2016-0020 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 37 (3) ◽

pp. 379-402 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Marzena Osuch ◽

Tomasz Wawrzyniak

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Future Period ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Abstract The aim of this study was to provide an estimation of climate variability in the Hornsund area in Southern Spitsbergen in the period 1976-2100. The climatic variables were obtained from the Polar-CORDEX initiative in the form of time series of daily air temperature and precipitation derived from four global circulation models (GCMs) following representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In the first stage of the analysis, simulations for the reference period from 1979 to 2005 were compared with observations at the Polish Polar Station Hornsund from the same period of time. In the second step, climatic projections were derived and monthly and annual means/sums were analysed as climatic indices. Following the standard methods of trend analysis, the changes of these indices over three time periods - the reference period 1976-2005, the near-future period 2021-2050, and far-future period 2071-2100 - were examined. The projections of air temperature were consistent. All analysed climate models simulated an increase of air temperature with time. Analyses of changes at a monthly scale indicated that the largest increases were estimated for winter months (more than 11°C for the far future using the RCP 8.5 scenario). The analyses of monthly and annual sums of precipitation also indicated increasing tendencies for changes with time, with the differences between mean monthly sums of precipitation for the near future and the reference period similar for each months. In the case of changes between far future and reference periods, the highest increases were projected for the winter months.

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A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-019-01565-w ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 2621-2635 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

George Zittis ◽

Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽

Marina Klangidou ◽

Yiannis Proestos ◽

Jos Lelieveld

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Projected Changes

AbstractObservation and model-based studies have identified the Mediterranean region as one of the most prominent climate change “hot-spots.” Parts of this distinctive region are included in several Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains such as those for Europe, Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East/North Africa. In this study, we compile and analyze monthly temperature and precipitation fields derived from regional climate model simulations performed over different CORDEX domains at a spatial resolution of 50 km. This unique multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain “super-ensemble” is used to update projected changes for the Mediterranean region. The statistical robustness and significance of the climate change signal is assessed. By considering information from more than one CORDEX domains, our analysis addresses an additional type of uncertainty that is often neglected and is related to the positioning of the regional climate model domain. CORDEX simulations suggest a general warming by the end of the century (between 1 and 5 °C with respect to the 1986–2005 reference period), which is expected to be strongest during summer (up to 7 °C). A general drying (between 10 and 40%) is also inferred for the Mediterranean. However, the projected precipitation change signal is less significant and less robust. The CORDEX ensemble corroborates the fact that the Mediterranean is already entering the 1.5 °C climate warming era. It is expected to reach 2 °C warming well within two decades, unless strong greenhouse gas concentration reductions are implemented. The southern part of the Mediterranean is expected to be impacted most strongly since the CORDEX ensemble suggests substantial combined warming and drying, particularly for pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

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Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-3331-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (6) ◽

pp. 3331-3350 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Claudio Cassardo ◽

Seon Ki Park ◽

Marco Galli ◽

Sungmin O

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Surface ◽

Climate Model ◽

Human Life ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Climate Projections ◽

High Mountain ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Alpine Area

Abstract. Climate change may intensify during the second half of the current century. Changes in temperature and precipitation can exert a significant impact on the regional hydrologic cycle. Because the land surface serves as the hub of interactions among the variables constituting the energy and water cycles, evaluating the land surface processes is essential to detail the future climate. In this study, we employ a trusted soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer scheme, called the University of Torino model of land Processes Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), in offline simulations to quantify the changes in hydrologic components in the Alpine area and northern Italy, between the period of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The regional climate projections are obtained by the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) via two emission scenarios – A2 and B2 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The hydroclimate projections, especially from A2, indicate that evapotranspiration generally increases, especially over the plain areas, and consequently the surface soil moisture decreases during summer, falling below the wilting point threshold for an extra month. In the high-mountain areas, due to the earlier snowmelt, the land surface becomes snowless for an additional month. The annual mean number of dry (wet) days increases remarkably (slightly), thus increasing the risk of severe droughts, and slightly increasing the risk of floods coincidently. Our results have serious implications for human life, including agricultural production, water sustainability, and general infrastructures, over the Alpine and adjacent plain areas and can be used to plan the managements of water resources, floods, irrigation, forestry, hydropower, and many other relevant activities.

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