scholarly journals Measuring Radial and Tangential Changes in Tropical Cyclone Rain Fields Using Metrics of Dispersion and Closure

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Corene Matyas ◽  
Jingyin Tang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tangential Component ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Surrounding Environment ◽  
Spatial Configurations ◽  
Future Work

Although tropical cyclone (TC) rain fields assume varying spatial configurations, many studies only use areal coverage to compare TCs. To provide additional spatial information, this study calculates metrics of closure, or the tangential completeness of reflectivity regions surrounding the circulation center, and dispersion, or the spread of reflectivity outwards from the storm center. Two hurricanes that encountered different conditions after landfall are compared. Humberto (2007) experienced rapid intensification (RI), stronger vertical wind shear, and more moisture than Jeanne (2004), which was more intense, weakened gradually, and became extratropical. A GIS framework was used to convert radar reflectivity regions into polygons and measure their area, closure, and dispersion. Closure corresponded most closely to storm intensity, as the eye became exposed when both TCs weakened to tropical storm intensity. Dispersion increased by 10 km·hr−1 as both TCs developed precipitation along frontal boundaries. As closure tended to change earlier than dispersion and area, closure may be most sensitive to subtle changes in environmental conditions, particularly as the storm’s core experiences the entrainment of dry air and erodes. Displacement provided a combined radial and tangential component to the location of the rainfall regions to confirm placement along the frontal boundaries. Examining area alone cannot reveal these patterns. The spatial metrics reveal changes in TC structure, such as the lag between onset of RI and maximum closure, which should be generalizable to TCs experiencing similar conditions. Future work will calculate these metrics for additional TCs to quantify structural changes in response to their surrounding environment.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3806-3820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xidong Wang ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Heat Potential

Abstract This study investigates the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale climate variability. RI events have exhibited strikingly multidecadal variability. During the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the annual RI number is generally lower (higher) and the average location of RI occurrence tends to shift southeastward (northwestward). The multidecadal variations of RI are associated with the variations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), relative humidity (RHUM), and vertical wind shear (VWS). It is shown that their variations on multidecadal time scales depend on the evolution of the PDO phase. The easterly trade wind is strengthened during the cold PDO phase at low levels, which tends to make equatorial warm water spread northward into the main RI region rsulting from meridional ocean advection associated with Ekman transport. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic wind anomaly is formed in the subtropical gyre of the WNP. This therefore may deepen the depth of the 26°C isotherm and directly increase TCHP over the main RI region. These thermodynamic effects associated with the cold PDO phase greatly support RI occurrence. The reverse is true during the warm PDO phase. The results also indicate that the VWS variability in the low wind shear zone along the monsoon trough may not be critical for the multidecadal modulation of RI events.

Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958)

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4194-4217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of Typhoon Ida (1958) was examined with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic model initiated at three different times. Ida was an extremely intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 877 hPa. The maximum central pressure drop in 24 h exceeded 90 hPa. ERI was successfully simulated in two of the three experiments. A factor crucial to simulating ERI was a combination of shallow-to-moderate convection and tall, upright convective bursts (CBs). Under a strong environmental vertical wind shear (>10 m s−1), shallow-to-moderate convection on the downshear side that occurred around the intense near-surface inflow moistened the inner-core area. Meanwhile, dry subsiding flows on the upshear side helped intensification of midlevel (8 km) inertial stability. First, a midlevel warm core appeared below 10 km in the shallow-to-moderate convection areas, being followed by the development of the upper-level warm core associated with tall convection. When tall, upright, rotating CBs formed from the leading edge of the intense near-surface inflow, ERI was triggered at the area in which the air became warm and humid. CBs penetrated into the upper troposphere, aligning the areas with high vertical vorticity at low to midlevels. The upper-level warm core developed rapidly in combination with the midlevel warm core. Under the preconditioned environment, the formation of the upright CBs inside the radius of maximum wind speeds led to an upright axis of the secondary circulation within high inertial stability, resulting in a very rapid central pressure deepening.

A Geospatial Analysis of Convective Rainfall Regions Within Tropical Cyclones After Landfall

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corene J. Matyas
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Accurate Assessment ◽  
Areal Extent ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
The Right

In this article, the author utilizes a GIS to spatially analyze radar reflectivity returns during the 24 hours following 43 tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls. The positions of convective rainfall regions and their areal extent are then examined according to storm intensity, motion, vertical wind shear, time until extratropical transition, time after landfall, and distance from the coastline. As forward velocity increases in conjunction with an extratropical transition, these regions move outward, shift from the right side to the front of the TC, and grow in size. A similar radial shift, but with a decrease in areal extent, occurs as TCs weaken. Further quantification of the shapes of these regions could yield a more spatially accurate assessment of where TCs may produce high rainfall totals.

The Tropical Cyclone as a Divergent Source in a Background Flow

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (12) ◽  
pp. 4189-4210
Author(s):  
David R. Ryglicki ◽  
Daniel Hodyss ◽  
Gregory Rainwater
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Shallow Water Model ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Analytical Expression ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Upper Level

AbstractThe interactions between the outflow of a tropical cyclone (TC) and its background flow are explored using a hierarchy of models of varying complexity. Previous studies have established that, for a select class of TCs that undergo rapid intensification in moderate values of vertical wind shear, the upper-level outflow of the TC can block and reroute the environmental winds, thus reducing the shear and permitting the TC to align and subsequently to intensify. We identify in satellite imagery and reanalysis datasets the presence of tilt nutations and evidence of upwind blocking by the divergent wind field, which are critical components of atypical rapid intensification. We then demonstrate how an analytical expression and a shallow water model can be used to explain some of the structure of upper-level outflow. The analytical expression shows that the dynamic high inside the outflow front is a superposition of two pressure anomalies caused by the outflow’s deceleration by the environment and by the environment’s deceleration by the outflow. The shallow water model illustrates that the blocking is almost entirely dependent upon the divergent component of the wind. Then, using a divergent kinetic energy budget analysis, we demonstrate that, in a full-physics TC, upper-level divergent flow generation occurs in two phases: pressure driven and then momentum driven. The change happens when the tilt precession reaches left of shear. When this change occurs, the outflow blocking extends upshear. We discuss these results with regard to prior severe weather studies.

scholarly journals The Role of Observed Environmental Conditions and Precipitation Evolution in the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010)

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
pp. 2207-2223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Susca-Lopata ◽  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward J. Zipser ◽  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Wind Retrievals

Abstract An investigation into the possible causes of the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricane Earl (2010) is carried out using a combination of global analyses, aircraft Doppler radar data, and observations from passive microwave satellites and a long-range lightning network. Results point to an important series of events leading to, and just after, the onset of RI, all of which occur despite moderate (7–12 m s−1) vertical wind shear present. Beginning with an initially vertically misaligned vortex, observations indicate that asymmetric deep convection, initially left of shear but not distinctly up- or downshear, rotates into more decisively upshear regions. Following this convective rotation, the vortex becomes aligned and precipitation symmetry increases. The potential contributions to intensification from each of these structural changes are discussed. The radial distribution of intense convection relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW; determined from Doppler wind retrievals) is estimated from microwave and lightning data. Results indicate that intense convection is preferentially located within the upper-level (8 km) RMW during RI, lending further support to the notion that intense convection within the RMW promotes tropical cyclone intensification. The distribution relative to the low-level RMW is more ambiguous, with intense convection preferentially located just outside of the low-level RMW at times when the upper-level RMW is much greater than the low-level RMW.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7837-7855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Intensity Evolution

Abstract A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of storm intensity change and associates each state with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm’s transit from one state to another is described as a Markov chain. Both the intensity change and state transit components of the model are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, and ocean feedback. This Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) is used to simulate the evolution of storm intensity along the storm track over the ocean, and a simple decay model is added to estimate the intensity change when the storm moves over land. Data for the North Atlantic (NA) basin from 1979 to 2014 (555 storms) are used for model development and evaluation. Probability distributions of 6- and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity based on model simulations and observations compare well. Although the MeHiM is still limited in fully describing rapid intensification, it shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models).

scholarly journals Structural Changes Preceding Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones as Shown in a Large Ensemble of Idealized Simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiaki Miyamoto ◽  
David S. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Vortex Size

Abstract Structural changes that precede rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) are examined in a full-physics model by conducting a large ensemble (270) of idealized TC simulations. The processes leading to RI in a representative case with moderate shear are consistent with previous studies for weakly sheared cases. The most distinct changes are that the vortex tilt and the vortex size begin to decrease more rapidly 6 h before the onset of RI. A vorticity budget analysis for the upper layer around the low-level center reveals that the vertical vorticity is increased by vertical advection, stretching, and tilting terms before RI, whereas the horizontal advection is small. Thus, the upright vortex structure is not achieved through a vortex alignment process but rather is built upward by deep convection. The ensemble simulations are generated by changing the intensity and size of the initial vortex, the magnitude of vertical wind shear, and the translation speed. The ensemble members that show RI are consistent with the control case and many previous studies: before the onset of RI, the intensity gradually increases, the radius of maximum tangential wind (RMW) decreases, the flow structure becomes more symmetric, the vortex tilt decreases, and the radius of maximum convergence approaches the radius of maximum winds. A dimensionless parameter representing a tendency for the formation of the vertically upright structure is considered. The product of this parameter and the local Rossby number is significantly larger for TCs that exhibit RI in the next 24 h.

scholarly journals An Advanced Artificial Intelligence System for Investigating Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with the SHIPS Database

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 484
Author(s):  
Yijun Wei ◽  
Ruixin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Parameter Tuning ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Feature Engineering ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Artificial Intelligence System ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Future Work

Currently, most tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) prediction studies are conducted based on a subset of the SHIPS database using a relatively simple model structure. However, variables (features) in the SHIPS database are built upon human expertise in TC intensity studies based on hard and subjective thresholds, and they should be explored thoroughly to make full use of the expertise. Based on the complete SHIPS data, this study constructs a complicated artificial intelligence (AI) system that handles feature engineering and selection, imbalance, prediction, and hyper parameter-tuning, simultaneously. The complicated AI system is used to further improve the performance of the current studies in RI prediction, and to identify other essential SHIPS variables that are ignored by previous studies with variable importance scores. The results outperform most of the earlier studies by approximately 21–50% on POD (Probability Of Detection) with reduced FAR (False Alarm Rate). This study built a baseline for future work on new predictor identification with more complicated AI techniques.

scholarly journals Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) under Different Sea Surface Temperatures: Structural Changes Leading to Rapid Intensification

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (12) ◽  
pp. 4313-4335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Chen ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Juan Fang
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Surface Friction ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Vertical Alignment ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Abstract The notable prelandfall rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) over abnormally warm water with moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) is investigated by performing a set of full-physics model simulations initialized with different sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While all experiments can reproduce RI, tropical cyclones (TCs) in cooler experiments initiate the RI 13 h later than those in warmer experiments. A comparison of structural changes preceding RI onset in two representative experiments with warmer and cooler SSTs (i.e., CTL and S1) indicates that both TCs undergo similar vertical alignment despite the moderate VWS. RI onset in CTL occurs ~8 h before the full vertical alignment, while that in S1 occurs ~5 h after. In both experiments precipitation becomes more symmetrically distributed around the vortex as vortex tilt decreases. In CTL, precipitation symmetricity is higher in the inner-core region, particularly for stratiform precipitation. All experiments indicate that RI onset occurs when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) contraction reaches a certain degree measured in terms of local Rossby number. The contraction occurs much earlier in CTL, leading to earlier RI. These results suggest that vertical alignment, albeit necessary, is not an effective RI indicator under different SSTs, while a more immediate cause of RI is the formation of a strong/compact inner core with high precipitation symmetry. Diagnoses using the Sawyer–Eliassen equation indicate that in CTL the enhanced microphysical diabatic heating of additional midlevel and deep convection along with surface friction contribute to stronger boundary layer inflow near/inside the RMW, facilitating earlier RMW contraction.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification over the Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 8917-8930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hironori Fudeyasu ◽  
Kosuke Ito ◽  
Yoshiaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Heat Potential

This study statistically investigates the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific in the 37 years from 1979 to 2015 and the relevant atmospheric and oceanic environments. Among 900 TCs, 201 TCs undergoing RI (RI-TCs) are detected by our definition as a wind speed increase of 30 kt (15.4 m s−1) or more in a 24-h period. RI-TCs potentially occur throughout the year, with low variation in RI-TC occurrence rate among the seasons. Conversely, the annual occurrence of RI-TC varies widely. In El Niño years, TCs tend to undergo RI mainly as a result of average locations at the time of tropical storm formation (TSF) being farther east and south, whereas TCs experience RI less frequently in La Niña years. The occurrence rates of RI-TC increased from the 1990s to the late 2000s. The RI onset time is typically 0–66 h after the TSF and the duration that satisfies the criteria of RI is 1–2 days. RI frequently occurs over the zonally elongated area around the eastern Philippine Sea. The development stage and life-span are longer in RI-TCs than in TCs that do not undergo RI. RI-TCs are small at the time of TSF and tend to develop as intense TCs as a result of environmental conditions favorable for TC development, weak vertical wind shear, high convective available potential energy, and tropical cyclone heat potential. The occurrence rates of RI-TCs that make landfall in Japan and the Philippines are higher than in China and Vietnam.

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