scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the Global Shipping Market under the Background of Oil Price Fluctuations and Emergencies

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zihan Chen ◽  
Xiaokong Zhang ◽  
Jian Chai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Time Points ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
China’S Economy

With growing uncertainty about the evolution of the global landscape, it is of great practical significance to explore the nonlinear dynamic adjustment relationship among the world oil market, the global bulk shipping market, the stock market, and economic growth in China. This paper applied the TVP-SV-VAR model and selected quarterly data from 1998 to 2020 to explore the dynamics. The results indicated that the impact intensity of BDI on China’s economy had a “positive” to “negative” change in different lag periods. This was mainly due to the fact that the negative impact of higher freight prices on China’s economy outweighed the positive impact of higher trade volumes on China’s economy. The impact intensity of BDI on GDP had a distinct medium- to long-term effect. A positive BDI shock had a dampening effect on stock prices in the short and medium term, while a positive BDI shock could promote stock market prosperity in the long-term perspective. The impulse responses of SSE and GDP to BDI showed that the external shipping market shocks to China’s stock market and economic growth gradually became smaller over time. For impulse response at three different time points, the impact intensity of the BDI to GDP varied at different time points, with the largest shock during the financial crisis in 2008, followed by the shock during the oil price crash in 2014, and the smallest during the COVID-19 epidemic. This demonstrated that the external shipping market’s influence on Chinese economic growth and stock market has gradually weakened over time, illustrating the enhancement of Chinese risk-resilience capacity.

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on China’s Economy: An Empirical Investigation Based on VAR Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 524-527 ◽  
pp. 3211-3215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Ping Wang ◽  
Ai Mei Hu ◽  
Zhen Xin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
China’S Economy

China has been in rapid economic growth and industrial structure reform for recent years, and oil, as a most important raw material for industrial production, its price fluctuations have direct impact on energy-intensive industries as well as non-energy-intensive industries and their associated industries’ overall demands. Under the price transmission mechanism, oil price volatility imposes significant influences on economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy as well. This paper established VAR model among oil prices and economic indicators such as economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy, and by data processing , stability test and cointegration test, we found that there existed long term stable cointegration relations among these sequences; through Granger Causality test we found that oil price volatility was the Granger cause of the fluctuations of economic growth rate, price level and monetary policy, and meanwhile, changes in economic growth rate is the Granger cause of that in price level. The result of our empirical study indicated that, oil price volatility has a profound influence on China’s economy, and thus, China should improve the establishment of the oil futures market to avoid risks of oil price volatility and secure long-term stability of its economic growth.

scholarly journals The impact of Indonesian oil price (CPI) and macroeconomics on investments in the manufacturing sector in Indonesia

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Handri Handri ◽  
Hendrati Dwi Mulyaningsih ◽  
Achmad Kemal Hidayat ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan ◽  
Ani Wahyu Rachmawati
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: Indonesia consumes oil as the main energy source in the production process and as a result of the development of the manufacturing industry. Thus, investment in manufacturing stocks will be affected by oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions. Changes in oil prices will affect the performance of the manufacturing sector which in turn affects manufacturing stock prices. This paper aims to examine the impact of Indonesia's oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors on stock price movements in the manufacturing sector. Methods: This study uses monthly data for the 2009-2016 period in the manufacturing sector, and 67 stocks were selected on the basis consistently available in the period of the research. The cointegration and causality technique was used in this paper; firstly we applied a unit-panel root test, Secondly, we performed a residual test to indicate whether there was cointegration among variables in the long run equilibrium, and short the short run, we used a Granger causality test. Results: The panel unit root test (both Shin and Fisher) and the Pedroni cointegration residual test show that the data is stationary at 1%  level of significance, thus all variables simultaneously achieve long-run equilibrium, and in the short run, the Granger causality test shows that there is one way direction causality Conclusions: For long-term investment in manufacturing stocks, investors must consider the exchange rate, as it is also as a determining factor in influencing the movement of manufacturing stock prices, inflation, and the production index. Meanwhile, weakening of the rupiah in the short run will also determine investment conditions due to the dependency on raw materials for production from foreign sources. The price of oil as an energy source in the manufacturing sector does not have a long-term relationship with other variables.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Income Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

scholarly journals Credit Rating Changes and Stock Market Reaction in the Kingdom of Bahrain

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwan M. Abdeldayem ◽  
Ramzi Nekhili
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
The Impact

<p>Between 2014 and 2015, the oil price almost halved. Since then, it has fallen a further 40%. Consequently, Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Bahrain’s long-term issuer rating from Baa3 to Ba1with a negative outlook and placed it on review for further downgrade. In this context, previous literature reaches no agreement about the impact of credit rating changes on stock prices. Some studies indicate that credit rating changes do not affect stock prices, while others conclude they do. Therefore, this study aims to examine whether credit rating change has a significant impact on Bahraini stock prices. We conducted an event study to analyze stock market reaction to such news in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Even though Bahrain has witnessed a series of sovereign downgrades over the past five years, the latest downgrading event in February 17, 2016, has been followed by a credit rating downgrade of its banking sector in March 7, 2016. Hence the choice of the sample period of the event study includes both these downgrading events over the period of study from January 2, 2014 till March 22, 2016. Three sectors were selected from the Bahrain all share index: banks, service and industrial. The findings of the study reveal that sovereign rating downgrade has some mixed pre-announcement and post-announcement effects and credit rating downgrade provides useful information. Overall, the results indicate that downgrades and negative outlook announcements have an adverse impact on long-term equity returns, but little impact on short-term performance.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Macro - Economic Factors on Indian Stock Market- A Research of BSE Sectoral Indices

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S7) ◽  
pp. 597-602
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact

Macro-Economic factors plays a major role in decision making. Evaluation of macroeconomic environment is required to examine the behaviour of stock prices, which further influences the investor’s investment behaviour. Even though some macro-economic factors are not directly related to the company or industry, but those factors has an impact on stock prices, further economic activity in the domestic and global level has its own impact on stock market. When economy of the country grows hastily, it leads to faster growth in the industry and vice versa. Financial market plays a central role in the performance of financial system of an economy. Stock market is a market where securities of listed companies are exchanged between different investors, it is very responsive market which, gives a stage to investors to invest their money in various securities. Market indices are the tools to measure the performance of various securities of stock market and Investors make use of those market indices to analyse performance of those industries in which, they prefer to invest. This study takes into account six macro-economic factors (Crude oil Price, Gold Price, Silver Price, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate) to study & analyse the impact of these variables on selected sectoral indices at BSE, SENSEX, S&P BSE BANKEX, S&P BSE Oil and Gas, S&P BSE Capital Goods, S&P BSE Consumer Durables, S&P BSE Reality, S&P BSE PSU and S&P BSE Power. The study shows that gold price, exchange rate, consumer price index and interest rate are positively correlated with four indices but crude oil price and silver price have positively correlated with 3 indices. So from the result it is clear that investor need to take of all the variables for their investment decision and the investment banker also take care of these indicators before giving suggestion to their clients

scholarly journals The Relationship of Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment on Financial Development: Empirical Evidence from Palestine

2021 ◽  
pp. 14-35
Author(s):  
Nemer Badwan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact and current link between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) on financial development in Palestine, as well as the role of financial development in influencing this relationship. Design/Methodology/Approach: The logical reasoning approach associated with quantitative research was applied in this study, which was backed up by experience and positivism as philosophical viewpoints. Data on economic growth indicators, foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, and other control variables were also used, spanning the years (1998 to 2019). To determine whether there is an effect and a relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and financial development in Palestine, Johansen's co-integration analysis method will be used. Results: Johansen's co-integration discovered that economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and financial development have a favourable influence and a Long-Term association. Furthermore, there was a statistically significant relationship between stock market financial development indices and foreign direct investment (FDI). Practical Implications: This study adds to the literature by evaluating whether foreign direct investment (FDI) drives growth through financial development networks and other factors that can drive growth in addition to foreign direct investment (FDI). A well-developed financial market, according to research, will boost the impact of indirect foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. By offering enough liquidity services that increase links between local and global investors, a well-developed stock market will promote capital accumulation activities and output growth. Originality/Value: This study is unique in that it examines the impact and relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Palestine on financial development, which must be considered in all developing countries' Long-Term development plans. Simultaneously, this study is a step ahead in examining the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Palestine, as well as their primary function in financial development.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Giri ◽  
Pooja Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN FRAMEWORK ON THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Vol IV(1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Viorica Popa ◽  
◽  
Nicolae Popa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Security Of Supply ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

In the transition to a circular economy, monitoring key trends and patterns is essential to understand how the various elements of the circular economy develop over time, identify Member States' success factors and to assess whether sufficient action has been taken. Thus, the EU Council, based on the results of the monitoring, must be based on setting new priorities for achieving the long-term goal of the circular economy in the future. The crisis caused by Covid-19 mitigates part of the impact of economic activities on the environment and climate. Thus, the transition to a more circular economy could bring benefits such as reducing pressure on the environment, improving security of supply of raw materials, increasing competitiveness, stimulating innovation, stimulating economic growth, creating jobs. The authors in this study analyze the European framework on the circular economy.

Has Aid Helped in Pakistan?

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (4II) ◽  
pp. 947-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahrukh Rafi Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

This paper has a two-fold objective: first, to examine the terms on which Pakistan receives aid and whether its debt situation is sustainable, and second, to examine the impact of aid and debt on economic growth. It is found that there is little encouraging that can be said about how the terms on which Pakistan has received aid over time have changed, and its current debt situation is not sustainable. Also reported is the analysis done elsewhere which shows that aid has a negative (Granger) causal impact on GDP, and aid has a robust negative impact on economic growth after controlling for supplyside shocks. We provide various reasons for this negative association.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

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