Macroeconomic Policy in Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
Inflation Targets

This paper explores the composition of the macroeconomic policy packages that would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy. An empirical econometric model is used to predict the consequences of a monetary stimulus consisting of an open-market purchase of government bonds by the Bank of Japan combined with the announcement and implementation of inflation targeting in Japan. The paper also compares the impacts of permanent, temporary, and phased fiscal adjustments. The model predicts that monetary policy would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy through causing a depreciation of the yen. Similarly, a substantial fiscal consolidation in Japan would be only mildly contractionary for the first two years but then would yield substantial long-term benefits to the Japanese economy. Combining a credible fiscal contraction that is phased in over three years with an inflation target would be likely to provide a powerful macroeconomic stimulus to the Japanese economy, through a weaker exchange rate and lower long-term real interest rates, and would sustain higher growth in Japan for a decade. Thus, a switch in the macroeconomic policy mix toward a loose monetary policy (e.g., setting inflation targets between 2 and 3 percent) and a tight fiscal policy is likely to be an important part of a successful package of reforms to raise Japanese productivity growth over the coming years.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Tightening and Long-Term Interest Rates

2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Pedro Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Policy Tools ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Economic Developments

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy ever since the 2007 recession, and some financial market participants are concerned that long-term interest rates may increase more than should be expected when the Committee starts to tighten. But a look at five historical episodes of monetary policy tightening suggests that such an outcome is more likely when markets are surprised by policy actions or economic developments. Given the Fed's new policy tools, especially its evolution toward more transparent communications, the odds of a surprise are far less likely now.

scholarly journals Analysis of Inflation Targets in Indonesia During The New Normal Era: New Consensus Approach to an Open Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Abdul Kadir Arno ◽  
Ilham Ilham ◽  
Akbar Sabani ◽  
Iksan Purnama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Consensus Approach ◽  
Inflation Targets

This article aims to discuss a growth model in terms of demand constrained by economic policy with inflation targeting in a super multiplier sraff model by analyzing how economic policy can affect productive capacity growth. This article also analyzes the open economy if inflation is a phenomenon resulting from the policy of the monetary authority that can manage the nominal exchange rate through changes in interest rates. Since the distribution of functional income will depend on the evolution of nominal wages, exchange rates and interest rates, we will show that the inflation targeting system, apart from being neutral in terms of long-term growth, can also produce different results in terms of the distribution of functional income

scholarly journals THE DYNAMICS OF GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN THE EURO ZONE

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750011 ◽  
Author(s):  
TANWEER AKRAM ◽  
ANUPAM DAS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Policy Measures

This paper investigates the determinants of nominal yields of government bonds in the euro zone. The pooled mean group (PMG) technique of cointegration is applied on both monthly and quarterly datasets to examine the major drivers of nominal yields of long-term government bonds in a set of 11 euro zone countries. Furthermore, the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) methods are used to address the same question for individual countries. The results show that short-term interest rates are the most important determinants of long-term government bonds’ nominal yields. These results support Keynes’s view that short-term interest rates and other monetary policy measures have a decisive influence on long-term interest rates on government bonds.

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Policy Papers ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
Inflation Targets

With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

scholarly journals Lessons from the 20 years of the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliane Araújo ◽  
Philip Arestis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Control ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
One Year

This paper analyzes the Brazilian experience with the inflation targeting regime (ITR) since its adoption in June 1999. The theoretical analysis starts by covering the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) only policy, in which the ITR is the monetary policy recommendation. This discussion is then complemented first by the current debate in the international mainstream on the need for a flexible ITR that considers the effects of monetary policy on the economy and second by the heterodox discussion on the need to completely abandon the ITR. The discussion on the Brazilian experience and its comparison with international experiences show that Brazil is one of the few countries where the monetary policy objective is restricted to price control and where the horizon for returning inflation to the target is only one year. Within this institutional framework, the Brazilian economy under the ITR is marked by the maintenance of extremely high real and nominal interest rates and with difficulties in meeting the inflation targets. The price control obtained also did not generate the expected externalities in terms of economic growth and employment. After almost 20 years of adopting the ITR in Brazil, it has generated exaggerated contractionary pressures on the Brazilian economy, indicating the need for a thorough examination of monetary institutions in Brazil in order to resume economic growth with price stability and social equity.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Unconventional Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan: A DSGE Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 253
Author(s):  
Rui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Lower Sensitivity ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Bank Of Japan

When the nominal interest rate reaches the zero lower bound (ZLB), a conventional monetary policy, namely, the adjustment of short-term interest rate, may become impractical and ineffective for central banks. Therefore, quantitative easing (QE) is one of the few available policy options of central banks for stimulating the economy and dealing with deflationary pressure. Since February 1999, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has conducted several unconventional monetary policy programs. Considering the scarce research in this field from a structural macroeconomic model approach, a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model with government bonds of different maturities was developed to check the portfolio rebalancing channel of quantitative qualitative easing (QQE) conducted by the BoJ from April 2013 on the basis of the assumption of imperfect asset substitutability. The model was calibrated on the basis of the structure of the Japanese economy in April 2013. The main conclusion is that the BoJ’s asset purchase has a real effect on pushing output and inflation higher, and long-term interest rates lower. Sensitivity simulation analysis shows that, given the same size of asset purchase, the persistence of asset purchase determines the peak effect in the short run. A long-lasting asset purchase can push up inflation higher, and long-term interest rates lower for a relatively longer period, but the long-run effect on output and investment does not have much difference. The policy implication for BoJ is just to announce a long-lasting QE program and make it credible to the market.

Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Potential Channels

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

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