scholarly journals The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias: Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?

2017 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan B. Krueger ◽  
Alexandre Mas ◽  
Xiaotong Niu
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Rotation Group ◽  
The Real

scholarly journals Occupational Situation of the Rural Farming and Landless Population in Poland in 2002-2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 18(33) (2) ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Włodzimierz Kołodziejczak
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Considerable Improvement ◽  
Source Material ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Equilibrium Unemployment ◽  
The Real ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Weighted Data

The Polish rural population is highly differentiated in terms of occupational situation, mainly because of the rural population’s involvement in individual farming. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the occupational situation of the rural farming and landless population in 2002, 2016 and 2017 in the context of non-farming job opportunities and unemployment risks. The study consists of two parts; the first one analyses the changes to the occupational situation of the rural population in the labour market; the second one identifies the risk of unemployment in selected groups of rural population. Aggregated weighted data and non-aggregated, non-published non-weighted BAEL (Polish LFS) data was used as source material. The study period witnessed a considerable improvement of the rural population’s occupational situation. However, if there is a slowdown in economic growth, the occupational situation of the rural population may deteriorate. In the short and medium term, people involved in individual farming and landless woman, i.e. the group where the real unemployment rate is much lower than equilibrium unemployment, will be particularly severely affected. In the longer term, the adverse impact of business cycles may also deteriorate the situation of landless men if their equilibrium unemployment level “follows” the real unemployment rate.

scholarly journals The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 2899-2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Matti Juhani Laine
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Real ◽  
European Central ◽  
Monetary Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

AbstractThis study applies factor-augmented vector autoregressive models to investigate the effect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conventional monetary policy on the real economy. More specifically, the study examines how unanticipated changes in the ECB’s policy rate have affected unemployment rate and industrial production. The effect of monetary policy on unemployment rate and industrial production is estimated to be strong and statistically significant using the data from January 1999 to July 2017 or from the pre-crisis period. However, after the beginning of the crisis the responses weaken drastically and become sometimes statistically insignificant, indicating that the effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy became weaker after the financial crisis. This finding is extremely interesting because one could presume either weaker or stronger effect based on economic theory. Additionally, the previous studies that have analysed the possible changes in the monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area have not found any changes (e.g. Bagzibagli in Empir Econ 47(3):781–823, 2014; Von Borstel et al. in Int J Money Finance 68:386–402, 2016).

scholarly journals Exploratory Study Of The Relationship Between Poverty And Crimes In Albany/Dougherty, Georgia

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Amaechi N. Nwaokoro ◽  
Clifford Marshall ◽  
Shiwam Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Teenage Pregnancy ◽  
Wage Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Real ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Dougherty County ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Both the crime andpoverty rates in Albany/Dougherty County, Georgia, are substantially high. Therefore, the objective of this study is tohighlight the sources of the relationships between poverty and crimes in thisarea. The paper makes additionalcontributions by exploring the impact of non-market factors of segregation anddiscrimination on poverty in the remote Dougherty County that is also characterizedby both dualistic and restricted environments.The crimes seem to be driven by poverty that is characterized by otherfactors - the remoteness of the county, exit of some big establishments, decliningurban education, increasing unemployment rate, non-harmonized economic environments,and by the presence of teenage pregnancy. These prevailing adversities have cumulativelysuppressed the real average weekly wage rate, proxy of poverty. Crimes and poverty control measures areincluded in the study.

scholarly journals Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ojonugwa Usman ◽  
Osama Elsalih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Linearity Test

This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1–2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals The impact of return migration on the Mexican labor market

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Return Migration ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: Mexican return migration has been stable until 2012, while migration flows to the USA have fallen substantially between 2005 and 2012; the changes in the Mexican migration flows have affected the supply side of the Mexican labor market. The paper analyses the potential effects of the return migration on the Mexican labor market. According to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), return migrants to Mexico started to significantly increase since the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2009, and after that the number of returned migrants started to slightly decline until the second quarter 2013. Considering the availability of data an empirical econometric model is established including the unemployment rate as dependent variable and the real GDP and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants as explanatory variables. The results showed that changes in return migration have a positive impact in changes in the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the real GDP and migration to the USA have had a negative impact on the unemployment rate of Mexico. Given the increase of unemployment reported in ENOE, the results suggest that the inadequate capacity of the Mexican economy to absorb the return migration workers is limited. Resumen: Desde el 2012, la migración de retorno de México se ha estabilizado mientras que los flujos de trabadores migrantes se ha reducido substancialmente. En este contexto, el presente trabajo analiza los efectos de la migración mexicana de retorno en el mercado laboral en México, en particular, en la tasa de desempleo. De acuerdo a la Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE), la cantidad de migrantes de retorno hacia México se incrementó entre el tercer trimestre e 2005 y el tercer trimestre de 2009 y, posteriormente, el número de migrantes retornados empezó a declinar ligeramente hasta el 2013. Con base en la disponibilidad de información estadística de la ENOE se realizó una regresión de mínimos cuadrados para analizar el efecto de los cambios del PIB real y los cambios en los flujos migratorios de trabajadores mexicanos a los EUA en los cambios de la tasa de desempleo en México. Los resultados corroboran que los cambios en la migración de retorno tienen un impacto positivo en la tasa de desempleo de México. Por otra parte, el PIB real y la migración de trabajadores mexicanos tienen un impacto negativo en el desempleo laboral de México. Por tanto, considerando que la ENOE ha mostrado un incremento de la tasa de desempleo de México, los resultados sugieren la poca capacidad de la economía mexicana para absorber los migrantes de retorno y la migración declinante de trabajadores mexicanos hacia los EUA.

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