scholarly journals The Effect of Ocean Dynamics and Orography on Atmospheric Storm Tracks

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 3689-3702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Wilson ◽  
Bablu Sinha ◽  
Richard G. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Orographic Forcing ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The control of atmospheric storm tracks by ocean dynamics, orography, and their interaction is investigated using idealized experiments with a simplified coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. The study focuses on the quasi–steady state for the storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere winter mean. The experiments start with a background state without mountains and ocean dynamics, and in separate stages include orography and a dynamic ocean to obtain a more realistic control simulation. The separate effects of ocean dynamics, orography, and their nonlinear interaction are identified for the storm tracks and the surface thermodynamic forcing over the ocean. The model study suggests that atmospheric storm tracks are a robust feature of the climate system, occurring at midlatitudes even if there is no orographic forcing or ocean heat transport. Ocean dynamics generally lead to a poleward shift in both the storm track and the maximum in atmospheric northward heat transport and induce a northeastward tilt over the Atlantic. This poleward shift is linked to the extra heat transport by the ocean and the tightening of sea surface temperature gradients on the western side of ocean basins. Orographic forcing causes along-track variability with a weakening of the storm track over the continents and induces a northeastward tilt over the western Pacific, which is associated with a stationary planetary wave train generated by the Tibetan Plateau. The interaction between ocean dynamics and orographic forcing plays a localized role, enhancing the contrast between the Atlantic and Pacific. Much of the response to the forcing is eddy mediated and transient eddies help to spread the influence of orographic and ocean forcing.

scholarly journals Storm Tracks and Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3518-3543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Bengtsson ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Erich Roeckner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Extratropical and tropical transient storm tracks are investigated from the perspective of feature tracking in the ECHAM5 coupled climate model for the current and a future climate scenario. The atmosphere-only part of the model, forced by observed boundary conditions, produces results that agree well with analyses from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), including the distribution of storms as a function of maximum intensity. This provides the authors with confidence in the use of the model for the climate change experiments. The statistical distribution of storm intensities is virtually preserved under climate change using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario until the end of this century. There are no indications in this study of more intense storms in the future climate, either in the Tropics or extratropics, but rather a minor reduction in the number of weaker storms. However, significant changes occur on a regional basis in the location and intensity of storm tracks. There is a clear poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere with consequences of reduced precipitation for several areas, including southern Australia. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less distinct, but there are also indications of a poleward shift, a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track, and a strengthening of the storm track north of the British Isles. The tropical storm tracks undergo considerable changes including a weakening in the Atlantic sector and a strengthening and equatorward shift in the eastern Pacific. It is suggested that some of the changes, in particular the tropical ones, are due to an SST warming maximum in the eastern Pacific. The shift in the extratropical storm tracks is shown to be associated with changes in the zonal SST gradient in particular for the Southern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Northern hemisphere winter storm tracks of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Kaspar ◽  
T. Spangehl ◽  
U. Cubasch
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Eemian Interglacial ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Climate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth's orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation in the northern hemisphere. Here we analyse the simulated change in northern hemisphere winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strengthened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic including the British Isles and the coastal zones of north-western Europe. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP.

scholarly journals Effects of Convective Gravity Wave Drag in the Southern Hemisphere Winter Stratosphere

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 2120-2136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun-Joo Choi ◽  
Hye-Yeong Chun
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The excessively strong polar jet and cold pole in the Southern Hemisphere winter stratosphere are systematic biases in most global climate models and are related to underestimated wave drag in the winter extratropical stratosphere—namely, missing gravity wave drag (GWD). Cumulus convection is strong in the winter extratropics in association with storm-track regions; thus, convective GWD could be one of the missing GWDs in models that do not adopt source-based nonorographic GWD parameterizations. In this study, the authors use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and show that the zonal-mean wind and temperature biases in the Southern Hemisphere winter stratosphere of the model are significantly alleviated by including convective GWD (GWDC) parameterizations. The reduction in the wind biases is due to enhanced wave drag in the winter extratropical stratosphere, which is caused directly by the additional GWDC and indirectly by the increased existing nonorographic GWD and resolved wave drag in response to the GWDC. The cold temperature biases are alleviated by increased downwelling in the winter polar stratosphere, which stems from an increased poleward motion due to enhanced wave drag in the winter extratropical stratosphere. A comparison between two simulations separately using the ray-based and columnar GWDC parameterizations shows that the polar night jet with a ray-based GWDC parameterization is much more realistic than that with a columnar GWDC parameterization.

scholarly journals An Idealized Nonlinear Model of the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 1818-1839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Iterative Approach ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract In this paper, a nonlinear dry model, forced by fixed radiative forcing alone, has been constructed to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. A procedure has been devised to iterate the radiative equilibrium temperature profile such that at the end of the iterations the model climate closely resembles the desired target climate. This iterative approach is applied to simulate the climatological storm tracks in January. It is found that, when the three-dimensional temperature distribution in the model resembles the observed distribution, the model storm tracks are much too weak. It is hypothesized that this is due to the fact that eddy development is suppressed in a dry atmosphere, owing to the lack of latent heat release in the ascending warm air. To obtain storm tracks with realistic amplitudes, the static stability of the target climate is reduced to simulate the enhancement in baroclinic energy conversion due to latent heat release. With this modification, the storm tracks in the model simulation closely resemble those observed except that the strength of the Atlantic storm track is slightly weaker than observed. The model, when used as a forecast model, also gives high-quality forecasts of the evolution of observed eddies. The iterative approach is applied to force the model to simulate climate anomalies associated with ENSO and the interannual variations of the winter Pacific jet stream/storm tracks. The results show that the model not only succeeds in simulating the climatology of storm tracks, but also produces realistic simulations of storm track anomalies when the model climate is forced to resemble observed climate anomalies. An extended run of the control experiment is conducted to generate monthly mean flow and storm track statistics. These statistics are used to build a linear statistical model relating storm track anomalies to mean flow anomalies. This model performs well when used to hindcast observed storm track anomalies based on observed mean flow anomalies, showing that the storm track/mean flow covariability in the model is realistic and that storm track distribution is not sensitive to the exact form of the applied forcings.

Changes in the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Response to Changes in SST in an AGCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1854-1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Seland Graff ◽  
J. H. LaCasce
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
The Mean

Abstract A poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks has been identified in observational and climate simulations. The authors examine the role of altered sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the storm-track position and intensity in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using realistic lower boundary conditions. A set of experiments was conducted in which the SSTs where changed by 2 K in specified latitude bands. The primary profile was inspired by the observed trend in ocean temperatures, with the largest warming occurring at low latitudes. The response to several other heating patterns was also investigated, to examine the effect of imposed gradients and low- versus high-latitude heating. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, averaged over a 20-yr period. Results show that the storm tracks respond to changes in both the mean SST and SST gradients, consistent with previous studies employing aquaplanet (water only) boundary conditions. Increasing the mean SST strengthens the Hadley circulation and the subtropical jets, causing the storm tracks to intensify and shift poleward. Increasing the SST gradient at midlatitudes similarly causes an intensification and a poleward shift of the storm tracks. Increasing the gradient in the tropics, on the other hand, causes the Hadley cells to contract and the storm tracks to shift equatorward. Consistent shifts are seen in the mean zonal velocity, the atmospheric baroclinicity, the eddy heat and momentum fluxes, and the atmospheric meridional overturning circulation. The results support the idea that oceanic heating could be a contributing factor to the observed shift in the storm tracks.

scholarly journals Storm Track Shifts under Climate Change: What Can Be Learned from Large-Scale Dry Dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9923-9930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheikh Mbengue ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Convective Stability ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Earth’s storm tracks are instrumental for transporting heat, momentum, and moisture and thus strongly influence the surface climate. Climate models, supported by a growing body of observational data, have demonstrated that storm tracks shift poleward as the climate warms. But the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this shift remain unclear. To isolate what portion of the storm track shift may be accounted for by large-scale dry dynamics alone, disregarding the latent heat released in phase changes of water, this study investigates the storm track shift under various kinds of climate change in an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) with an adjustable but constant convective stability. It is found that increasing the mean surface temperature or the convective stability leads to poleward shifts of storm tracks, even if the convective stability is increased only in a narrow band around the equator. Under warming and convective stability changes roughly corresponding to a doubling of CO2 concentrations from a present-day Earthlike climate, storm tracks shift about 0.8° poleward, somewhat less than but in qualitative agreement with studies using moist GCMs. About 63% (0.5°) of the poleward shift is shown to be caused by tropical convective stability variations. This demonstrates that tropical processes alone (the increased dry static stability of a warmer moist adiabat) can account for part of the poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming. This poleward shift generally occurs in tandem with a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation; however, the Hadley circulation expansion does not always parallel the storm track shift.

scholarly journals Are the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks Significantly Correlated?

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 4230-4244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Aircraft Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract In this study, the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere winter Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks is examined using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as unassimilated aircraft observations. By examining month-to-month variability in the 250-hPa meridional velocity variance, the correlation between the two storm track peaks is found to be as high as 0.5 during the winters between 1975/76 and 1998/99. Here, it is shown that the correlation between the two storm tracks can be clearly detected from the aircraft data. Further analyses of the reanalysis data show that the correlation can also be seen in other eddy variance and covariance statistics, including the poleward heat flux at the 700-hPa level. The correlation between the two storm tracks, as seen in both reanalysis datasets, is shown to be much weaker during the period 1957/58–1971/72, suggesting a possible regime transition from largely uncorrelated storm tracks to highly correlated storm tracks during the 1970s. However, during this earlier period, the number of aircraft observations is insufficient to verify the low correlation seen in the reanalyses. Thus, low biases in the reanalyses during the earlier period cannot be ruled out. An ensemble of four GCM simulations performed using the GFDL GCM forced by global observed SST variations between 1950 and 1995 has also been examined. The correlation between the two storm tracks in the GCM simulations is much lower (0.18) than that observed, even if the analysis is restricted to the GCM simulations from the period 1975/76–1994/95. A Monte Carlo test shows that the observed correlation and the GCM correlation are statistically distinct at the 1% level. Correlations between the Southern Hemisphere summer Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have also been examined based on the reanalyses datasets. The results suggest that the amplitude of the SH summer Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks are not significantly correlated, showing that seeding of the Atlantic storm track by the Pacific storm track does not necessarily lead to significant correlations between the two storm tracks.

scholarly journals The response of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and jetstreams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Harvey ◽  
Peter Cook ◽  
Len Shaffrey ◽  
Reinhard Schiemann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Jet Streams

<p>Understanding and predicting how extratropical cyclones might respond to climate change is essential for assessing future weather risks and informing climate change adaptation strategies. Climate model simulations provide a vital component of this assessment, with the caveat that their representation of the present-day climate is adequate. In this study the representation of the NH storm tracks and jet streams and their responses to climate change are evaluated across the three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). The aim is to quantity how present-day biases in the NH storm tracks and jet streams have evolved with model developments, and to further our understanding of their responses to climate change.</p><p>The spatial pattern of the present-day biases in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 are similar. However, the magnitude of the biases in the CMIP6 models is substantially lower in the DJF North Atlantic storm track and jet stream than in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. In summer, the biases in the JJA North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks are also much reduced in the CMIP6 models. Despite this, the spatial pattern of the climate change response in the NH storm tracks and jet streams are similar across the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles. The SSP2-4.5 scenario responses in the CMIP6 models are substantially larger than in the corresponding RCP4.5 CMIP5 models, consistent with the larger climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL’s High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3592-3611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Rich G. Gudgel ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Shaoqing Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Statistics Of Extremes

Abstract The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL)’s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the region with strong storm-track signals in North America, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of extremes connected to storm-track changes (e.g., extreme low and high sea level pressure and extreme 2-m air temperature) in response to different ENSO phases. These results point toward the possibility of providing skillful seasonal predictions of the statistics of extratropical extremes over land using high-resolution coupled models.

scholarly journals Geographical Dependence of Upper-Level Blocking Formation Associated with Intraseasonal Amplification of the Siberian High

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 4441-4449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koutarou Takaya ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Wave Train ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Far East ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Siberian High ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Intraseasonal amplification events of the surface Siberian high in winter are generally associated with blocking ridge formation in the upper troposphere. Composite analysis applied to the 20 strongest intraseasonal events of upper-level anticyclonic anomalies at every grid point over Siberia reveals that the blocking formation differs fundamentally between the east and west of the climatological upper-level trough over the Far East. To the west, what can be called “wave-train (Atlantic-origin)” type is common, where a blocking ridge develops from anomalies as a component of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train propagating across the Eurasian continent under modest feedback forcing from transient eddies. To the east of the trough, what can be called “Pacific-origin” type dominates, where a blocking ridge forms in association with westward development of anticyclonic anomalies from the North Pacific under stronger feedback forcing from the Pacific storm track. Regardless of a particular type of blocking formation in the upper troposphere, a cold air outbreak tends to occur once anomalously cold air reaches the northeastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document