Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A Comparison between Observations, Reanalysis Data, and Regional Models*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1950-1964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valérie Dulière ◽  
Yongxin Zhang ◽  
Eric P. Salathé
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract Extreme precipitation and temperature indices in reanalysis data and regional climate models are compared to station observations. The regional models represent most indices of extreme temperature well. For extreme precipitation, finer grid spacing considerably improves the match to observations. Three regional models, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) at 12- and 36-km grid spacing and the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) at 25-km grid spacing, are forced with global reanalysis fields over the U.S. Pacific Northwest during 2003–07. The reanalysis data represent the timing of rain-bearing storms over the Pacific Northwest well; however, the reanalysis has the worst performance at simulating both extreme precipitation indices and extreme temperature indices when compared to the WRF and HadRM simulations. These results suggest that the reanalysis data and, by extension, global climate model simulations are not sufficient for examining local extreme precipitations and temperatures owing to their coarse resolutions. Nevertheless, the large-scale forcing is adequately represented by the reanalysis so that regional models may simulate the terrain interactions and mesoscale processes that generate the observed local extremes and frequencies of extreme temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1477-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Tian ◽  
Eric F. Wood ◽  
Xing Yuan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature ◽  
Rainy Days

Abstract. This paper explored the potential of a global climate model for sub-seasonal forecasting of precipitation and 2 m air temperature. The categorical forecast skill of 10 precipitation and temperature indices was investigated using the 28-year sub-seasonal hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast skill for mean precipitation and temperature as well as for the frequency and duration of extremes was highly dependent on the forecasting indices, regions, seasons, and leads. Forecasts for 7- and 14-day temperature indices showed skill even at weeks 3 and 4, and generally were more skillful than precipitation indices. Overall, temperature indices showed higher skill than precipitation indices over the entire CONUS region at sub-seasonal scale. While the forecast skill related to mean precipitations was low in summer over the CONUS, the number of rainy days, number of consecutive rainy days, and number of consecutive dry days showed considerably high skill for the western coastal region. The presence of active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events improved CFSv2 weekly mean precipitation forecast skill over most parts of the CONUS, but it did not necessarily improve the weekly mean temperature forecasts. The 30-day forecasts of precipitation and temperature indices calculated from the downscaled monthly CFSv2 forecasts were less skillful than those calculated directly from CFSv2 daily forecasts, suggesting the usefulness of CFSv2 for sub-seasonal hydrological forecasting.

scholarly journals Changes in extreme climate indices in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Slobodan Gnjato ◽  
Tatjana Popov ◽  
Marko Ivanisevic ◽  
Goran Trbic
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Temperature Indices

The study analyzes trends in extreme climate indices in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Based on daily maximum temperatures, daily minimum temperatures and daily precipitation during the 1961-2016 periods, a set of 27 indices recommended by the CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was calculated in the RClimDex (1.0) software. Given the results, the extreme temperature indices displayed a warming tendency throughout the year (most prominent in summer). The positive trends in warm temperature indices were stronger than the downward trends in cold ones. The highest trend values were estimated for TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, WSDI, SU25 and SU30. The extreme precipitation indices displayed trends mixed in sign (annually and seasonally), but all statistically insignificant. However, upward trends in R99p, RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10mm and R20mm suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of intense precipitation events. Moreover, significant changes in distribution of majority temperature indices were determined, whereas shifts in precipitation indices were mostly insignificant. The observed changes in extreme temperature indices are related with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (primarily the East-Atlantic pattern) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The negative correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern and the Arctic Oscillation is found for majority of extreme precipitation indices.

scholarly journals Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Climate and Potential Driving Factors on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1960–2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1136
Author(s):  
Wenbo Yan ◽  
Yunling He ◽  
Ya Cai ◽  
Xilin Cui ◽  
Xinxing Qu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Temperature Indices

Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events around the world. The extreme climate in plateau and mountainous areas is sensitive and fragile. Based on the software Rclimdex 1.0, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of 27 extreme climate indices at 120 meteorological stations were calculated in Yunnan from 1960 to 2019. The results show that the extreme temperature is rising, and the warming rate at night is higher than that in the daytime. It showed a trend of warming and drying, and precipitation was concentrated into more intense bursts. Extreme temperature cold indices (TX10p, TN10p, FD0, ID0, and CSDI) were negatively correlated with extreme precipitation indices (R × 5day, PRCPTOT, R10 mm, R20 mm, and R25 mm). Extreme temperature warmth indices (TX90p and TN90p) were positively correlated with extreme precipitation indices (R × 5day, CWD, PRCPTOT, R10 mm, R20 mm, and R25 mm). The change rate of extreme temperature does not increase linearly with altitude. The increase in middle-altitude and high-altitude areas is higher than that in low-altitude areas. Compared with ENSO and AO, NAO is a vital circulation pattern affecting the extreme climate in Yunnan. The influence of NAO on Yunnan’s extreme climate indices is most significant in the current month and the second month that follows. NAO was negatively correlated with extreme temperature warm indices (TN90p, TX90p, SU25, and TR20). NAO positively correlates with the extreme cold temperature indices (TN10p and TX10p). Except that ENSO has a significant effect on CDD, the effect of the general circulation patterns on the extreme temperature indices was more significant than that on the extreme precipitation indices in Yunnan. The results of this study are helpful to further understand and predict the characteristics of extreme climatic events and the factors affecting their geographical locations and atmospheric circulation patterns in Yunnan.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature: a case study in Yunnan Province, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 121-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. X. Xu ◽  
X. J. Yang ◽  
D. P. Zuo ◽  
Q. Chu ◽  
W. F. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Annual Total ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province, China, were analyzed by using observed daily data at 28 meteorological stations from 1958–2013 in this study. Nine extreme precipitation indices and 6 extreme temperature indices were adopted, and the tendency of those indices was investigated by using Mann–Kendal test method. In order to distinguish the spatial characteristics, the region was divided into 5 regions according to climate and topography, then the characteristics of each region were compared each other. The results indicate that changes of extreme temperature are more sensitive and significant than those of precipitation. The contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation presented a significant upward trend, but the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) did not show significant changes. Both maximum and minimum temperature showed significant increasing tendency while there was not obvious changes for precipitation. The spatial features of extreme precipitation and temperature are similar. It was noted that extreme precipitation and temperature events occurred more frequently in central region where the risk of extreme climatic events was greater than other areas.

scholarly journals Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 567
Author(s):  
Zuohao Cao ◽  
Huaqing Cai ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Event ◽  
The U.S

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

scholarly journals Change in mean and extreme temperature at Yingkou station in Northeast China from 1904 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoying Xue ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Xiubao Sun ◽  
Panfeng Zhang ◽  
Yuyu Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northeast China ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Change In Mean

AbstractThe understanding of centennial trends of extreme temperature has been impeded due to the lack of early-year observations. In this paper, we collect and digitize the daily temperature data set of Northeast China Yingkou meteorological station since 1904. After quality control and homogenization, we analyze the changes of mean and extreme temperature in the past 114 years. The results show that mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) all have increasing trends during 1904–2017. The increase of Tmin is the most obvious with the rate of 0.34 °C/decade. The most significant warming occurs in spring and winter with the rate of Tmean reaching 0.32 °C/decade and 0.31 °C/decade, respectively. Most of the extreme temperature indices as defined using absolute and relative thresholds of Tmax and Tmin also show significant changes, with cold events witnessing a more significant downward trend. The change is similar to that reported for global land and China for the past six decades. It is also found that the extreme highest temperature (1958) and lowest temperature (1920) records all occurred in the first half of the whole period, and the change of extreme temperature indices before 1950 is different from that of the recent decades, in particular for diurnal temperature range (DTR), which shows an opposite trend in the two time periods.

Erosional response to northward-propagating crustal thickening in the coastal ranges of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

2013 ◽  
Vol 313 (8) ◽  
pp. 790-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Balco ◽  
N. Finnegan ◽  
A. Gendaszek ◽  
J. O. H. Stone ◽  
N. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Crustal Thickening ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Estimating a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Ho ◽  
Paul Bernal
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Alternative Routes ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis study attempts to fit a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal using Ordinary Least Square. Most of the soybean cargo through the interoceanic waterway is loaded on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast ports -mainly destined to East Asia, especially China-, and represented about 34% of total Panama Canal grain traffic between fiscal years 2010–19. To estimate the global demand model for soybean traffic, we are considering explanatory variables such as effective toll rates through the Panama Canal, U.S. Gulf- Asia and U.S. Pacific Northwest- Asia freight rates, Baltic Dry Index, bunker costs, soybean export inspections from the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest, U.S. Gulf soybean basis levels, Brazil’s soybean exports and average U.S. dollar index. As part of the research, we are pursuing the estimation of the toll rate elasticity of vessels transporting soybeans via the Panama Canal. Data come mostly from several U.S. Department of Agriculture sources, Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) and from Panama Canal transit information. Finally, after estimation of the global demand model for soybean traffic, we will discuss the implications for future soybean traffic through the waterway, evaluating alternative routes and sources for this trade.

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